FT社评 特朗普在台湾问题上挑衅很危险

Most periods between the election of a new US president and the inauguration are relatively quiet, with a bustle of appointment-related activity going on behind the scenes but a lack of hostages to fortune given in public.

新美国总统当选和就职之间这段时间大多比较平静，一些与任命有关的活动将在幕后忙碌地进行，但不会出现多少会在公开视野内招惹麻烦的事。

As president-elect, Donald Trump seems determined to up-end this tradition. If not necessarily settling on irrevocable policies that will bind him in office, he is setting out a stall that could radically change US strategy.

作为候任总统，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎决心颠覆这一传统。尽管他不一定是在制定一些不可撤销的、会在他在任时约束他的政策，但他正在摆出的立场可能彻底改变美国的战略。

It was the turn of Taiwan and its relationship to China on Friday. By taking a single phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president, and referring to her by that title, Mr Trump threw 40 years of established practice into question. In fairness, he is right — if indeed this is his aim — to point out America’s contradictory attitude to the self-governed and democratic island.

上周五，轮到了台湾及美中关系。特朗普接了台湾总统蔡英文一通电话，并且用她的头衔来称呼她，这让40年来的惯例陷入了不确定之中。平心而论，他正确地指出了美国对这个自治民主岛屿的态度自相矛盾——如果这真是他的目的的话。

But by raising the issue without due consideration, Mr Trump has risked unnecessarily inflaming passions and, in the long term, may have made it harder to recast the relationship with China in a peaceful way.

但在没有经过充分考虑的情况下提出这个问题，特朗普可能不必要地煽起激烈的情绪，从长期来看，还可能使美国更难以和平方式重塑与中国的关系。

The US attitude to Taiwan since it was set by Jimmy Carter’s administration in 1979 could be described as constructive hypocrisy. America professes to support Taiwanese democracy and sells it arms to defend itself from its powerful neighbour, while at the same time adhering to a “one-China” policy and refusing to recognise Taiwan as an independent country.

自1979年吉米.卡特(Jimmy Carter)政府定调以来，美国对台湾的态度可以说是一种建设性的虚伪。美国声称支持台湾民主，并对台出售武器助其抵御强大的邻居，同时美国又坚持“一个中国”政策，拒绝承认台湾是一个独立国家。

For a long while, this was a stable position that has kept the peace in a potentially inflammatory situation. But Beijing’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, particularly in the South China Sea, has made it more unstable. The US has looked ever more passive in the region and the timidity of its approach may have emboldened China.

在很长一段时间里，这是一种稳定的立场，在一种潜在易爆的环境中维持了和平。但中国政府日益强硬的外交政策，尤其是在南中国海事务上，正让这种立场日趋不稳。美国看起来在该地区日益被动，其策略上的胆怯可能增强了中国的胆量。

The Obama administration reacted to China’s building of artificial islands and militarisation of the South China Sea by sailing some ships and flying a few jets through the region in “freedom of navigation” exercises. China shrugged off these actions and carried on building military bases in the disputed waters.

奥巴马政府对中国修筑人工岛和将南中国海军事化的反应是，以“航行自由”名义派遣一些舰只和几架飞机通过该地区。中国对这些行动不予理睬，继续在争议水域修建军事基地。

Beijing’s initial response was to downplay news of the phone call. Unless Mr Trump doubles down on the provocation, China may simply bide its time and wait for him to enter the Oval Office, assuming this is the action of someone who has not had time to consider the issues at length.

中国政府对这通电话的初步反应是低调处理相关新闻。除非特朗普变本加厉地挑衅，否则中国可能只会静待特朗普入主白宫椭圆形办公室(Oval Office)，认为这是一个没有时间充分考虑这些问题的人采取的行动。

But it could also decide not to take such a sanguine view, and instead retaliate — if not directly on the Taiwan issue, perhaps with regard to other sensitive areas of US foreign policy in east Asia. Despite Mr Trump’s insistence that the Taiwanese president had called him, not the other way round, the conversation apparently has been in the planning among Mr Trump’s staff. It may represent a newly hawkish attitude to China, rather than simple inexperience.

但中国也可能不采取如此乐观的看法。它可能会进行报复——即使不是直接针对台湾问题，也可能与美国对东亚外交政策的其他敏感领域有关。尽管特朗普坚称电话是由台湾总统打来、而不是他打过去的，但这次通话显然在特朗普的工作人员的计划之内。这可能代表了一种针对中国的新鹰派态度，而不是简单的缺乏经验。

Mr Trump should wait until he has had a chance to consult across government before setting off in a radically different direction with regard to one of America’s most important and most delicate foreign policy relationships. With China throwing its weight around in the region, there is a good case for reviewing whether deliberate ambiguity can remain a sustainable US policy towards Taiwan. But provocative phone calls and combative tweets from a president-elect are emphatically not the way to proceed.

在处理美国最重要同时也最微妙的外交关系之一时，特朗普应该在走上截然不同的方向前等待，直到他有机会与政府各部门进行协商。由于中国现在在该地区四处展示实力，因此重新审视蓄意模糊是否仍是可持续的美国对台政策是有充分理由的。但候任总统带有挑衅意味的通话和好斗的Twitter帖子显然不是恰当的行事方式。

Diplomacy is best conducted behind closed doors, and face to face, by an administration in power. Mr Trump should pause before setting his country on a confrontational path that may prove counter-productive.

外交最好是关起门来，由在任者面对面进行。在把美国置于对峙道路前，特朗普应该暂时停下来，因为这种做法可能会被证明是适得其反。