唐纳德特朗普的危险外交理念
Donald Trump loves to say that he will “make America great again”. But Mr Trump’s foreign policy ideas actually amount to a headlong American retreat from “greatness” on the world stage.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总爱说，他将“让美国再次变得伟大”。但特朗普的外交政策理念实际上等同于让美国仓促退出世界舞台上的“伟大国家”行列。
The all-but-anointed Republican candidate for the US presidency essentially wants America to resign from the role of global policeman. Any such decision would have profound implications. The world’s security system is based around a series of American “red lines” and alliances. But if the US starts pulling back from its international role, other powers, in particular China and Russia, will move to fill the vacuum.
几乎锁定共和党总统候选人提名的特朗普，实质上希望美国不再担任“世界警察”角色。任何此类决策都将产生深远影响。全球安全体系是围绕美国划出的一系列“红线”和打造的联盟建立起来的。但如果美国开始收缩其国际角色，其他大国——特别是中国与俄罗斯——将去填补真空。
Mr Trump’s promised America-first trade protectionism could trigger a worldwide recession and undermine the globalised trading system that gives countries an incentive to co-operate rather than compete.
特朗普承诺的“美国第一”的贸易保护主义可能引发全球性的经济衰退，破坏全球化的贸易体系，而正是这一体系激励着各国进行合作，而非对抗。
To understand the full implications of Trumpism unleashed, look at three crucial regions — Asia, Europe and the Middle East. It is also important to understand how Mr Trump’s dealmaking approach to diplomacy would create dangerous international uncertainty.
要理解“特朗普主义”(Trumpism)造成的全面影响，可以看看三个关键地区——亚洲、欧洲和中东。同样重要的是要明白，特朗普在外交上的“做交易”策略将在国际上制造危险的不确定性。
In Asia, Mr Trump would stand US policy on its head. America’s approach to the rise of China has been based on economic openness, combined with security alliances designed to balance growing Chinese power. Mr Trump wants to reverse these priorities. He has talked about imposing swinging tariffs on Chinese goods. But he has also sounded very sceptical about America’s two most important treaty alliances in East Asia, with Japan and South Korea.
在亚洲，特朗普将彻底颠覆美国的现行政策。美国应对中国崛起的方式一直是以经济开放为基础，再加上旨在制衡中国实力增长的安全同盟。特朗普希望取消这些优先事项。他谈到要对中国商品征收各种关税。但他同时听上去也对美国在东亚的两个最重要的条约同盟——美日同盟与美韩同盟——持非常怀疑的态度。
Mr Trump’s priorities probably sound like common sense to many US voters, who regard it as much more important to safeguard American jobs from Chinese competition than to protect Japan and South Korea from potential attack. In reality, Mr Trump’s promised diplomatic revolution in Asia would have malign consequences that would swiftly be felt back home. A Trump-inspired trade war would be seen as a threat to the prosperity and stability of China. If this were combined with a weakening of US security guarantees to its Asian allies, China could well respond aggressively. The tense shadowboxing in the East and South China seas between China, the US and Japan could escalate into something much more serious.
特朗普提出的优先事项对许多美国选民来说听起来或许很合理，他们认为，保护美国的就业机会免受中国的竞争，比保护日、韩两国免遭潜在攻击重要得多。实际上，特朗普承诺在亚洲进行的外交革命将造成有害后果，而且这些后果将迅速波及美国国内。特朗普引发的贸易战将被视为对中国繁荣稳定的一大威胁。如果再加上美国对亚洲盟友安全保障的弱化，中国极有可能予以强硬的回击。中国、美国以及日本围绕东中国海、南中国海的紧张博弈可能升级至严重得多的地步。
The implications of Mr Trump’s pronouncements on Europe are no less profound. They threaten to gravely weaken the western alliance that has guaranteed security in Europe since the end of the second world war. For decades, US policy to Europe has been based on the twin pillars of Nato and the EU. But Mr Trump has abandoned America’s traditional support for European integration, suggesting that it would be a good idea if Britain voted to leave the EU. Mr Trump’s scepticism about alliance commitments extends to Nato, which he sees as a bad deal for America. Combine that with his admiration for Vladimir Putin and you have a formula for a radically different US approach in the region. Mr Trump could take America back to the isolationism of the 1930s, when the US was reluctant to countenance security commitments in Europe.
特朗普对欧洲的表态同样影响深远。它们可能严重削弱自二战结束以来一直保障欧洲安全的西方同盟。几十年来，美国对欧洲的政策一直建立在两大支柱——北约(Nato)与欧盟(EU)——之上。但特朗普已丢弃美国对欧洲一体化的传统支持，他暗示，如果英国投票决定退出欧盟会是个好主意。特朗普对联盟承诺的质疑还延伸到了北约身上，他将后者视为对美国不划算的一项协议。再加上特朗普对弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的赞赏，这意味着美国在这一地区与以往截然不同的政策。特朗普可能会把美国带回至上世纪30年代的孤立主义时期，那时的美国不愿意支持在欧洲的安全承诺。
The structural damage that Mr Trump would do to the western alliance would be compounded by the harm that he would inflict on America’s image in Europe. Mr Trump has already engaged in an intermittent public row with Sadiq Khan, the new mayor of London, who is a Muslim. If the Republicans were genuinely to attempt to ban Muslims from entering the US, even temporarily, that would create a huge diplomatic issue with countries such as the UK and France, which could not accept such frank discrimination against millions of their citizens.
特朗普对美国在欧洲的形象的破坏将进一步加剧他对西方同盟造成的结构性破坏。特朗普已经开始了与伦敦新任穆斯林市长萨迪克•汗(Sadiq Khan)断断续续的公开争吵。如果共和党真的试图禁止穆斯林进入美国（即便是暂时），这将在美国与英法等国之间制造巨大的外交问题，这些国家无法接受对数以百万计的本国公民如此不加掩饰的歧视。
The “Muslim ban” would obviously go down even worse in the Middle East, where Trumpism would promise a further deterioration in US regional power. Many of America’s Middle Eastern allies regard Barack Obama, the US president, as feckless and unreliable — and some may hope that Mr Trump would be an improvement. But they would be disappointed. Mr Trump’s scepticism about US alliance commitments, combined with wild promises to grab Middle Eastern oil, are not a formula for the restoration of American regional leadership.
显然，“穆斯林禁令”在中东将受到更严重的抵制，特朗普主义势将使美国的地区影响力进一步削弱。美国在中东的许多盟友认为，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统软弱、靠不住——有些国家或许希望特朗普将有所改观。但现实会令他们失望。特朗普对美国作出的同盟承诺的质疑，以及攫取中东石油的厥词，不可能帮助美国恢复地区领导力。
Of course it is hard to know how much of what Mr Trump says he actually means and how much is campaign rhetoric or random musing. But that, in itself, points to another big problem with his approach to the world.
当然，我们很难知道，特朗普所言有多少是自己的真实想法，有多少是竞选口号或者即兴想法。但这本身就指向了他对待世界的方式的另一个大问题。
Traditionally, American leaders have made a fetish of US “credibility” in international affairs. They believe that global security can only be guaranteed if potential adversaries believe that America’s military commitments are utterly reliable. That is why Mr Obama’s failure to enforce his red line against Syria’s use of chemical weapons in 2013 was felt to be such a big deal.
传统上，美国领导人最为珍视的是美国在国际事务中的“可信性”。他们认为，只有潜在敌手相信美国的军事承诺是绝对可靠的，全球安全才能得到保障。这就是为什么2013年叙利亚使用化学武器时，奥巴马未能严格守住红线、对其采取措施被认为如此事关重大。
Mr Trump, however, has made it clear that he wants America to become more unpredictable. In his writings on business, he has extolled the virtues of making extravagant demands or promises as an opening bid, before eventually finding a compromise. This approach might work well in real estate. But it is potentially a formula for disaster in international politics, where America’s friends and foes should believe that the US says what it means, and means what it says. Anything else could prompt dangerous miscalculations by US rivals, leading to uncertainty, instability — and, ultimately, war.
然而，特朗普明确表示，他希望美国变得更加难以捉摸。在其商业论述中，特朗普对一种做法洋洋得意，就是在最初开价时提出过分要求或做出过度承诺，然后达成最终的妥协。这种策略或许在房地产领域很有效，但在国际政治中可能招致灾难，在国际事务中，美国应该让自己的朋友和敌人相信，美国说话算话。否则可能促使美国的敌手做出危险的误判，导致不确定性和不稳定，甚至最终导致战争。
