梳理特朗普时代的美元前景
The only reliable guide to the dollar’s value in the wake of Donald Trump’s electoral victory is the wisdom of legendary investor Bernard Baruch about the stock market: it will fluctuate.
在唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统后，对美元价值的唯一可靠指引是传奇投资者伯纳德.巴鲁克(Bernard Baruch)有关股市的至理名言：它将波动。
If the prospects for the US economy have never been so uncertain, then the prospects for the dollar similarly have never been so uncertain.
如果说美国经济的前景从未如此不确定过，那么美元的前景也同样从未如此不确定过。
Still, we can attempt to make sense of this scenario from three angles.
话虽如此，我们可以尝试从3个视角来展望这种前景。
A first is from the vantage point of US fiscal and monetary policies.
首先是从美国财政和货币政策的角度来看。
One thing we know is that a more expansionary fiscal policy is coming.
我们知道，更具扩张性的财政政策即将出台。
It may take the form of tax cuts for the wealthy and tax credits for investors; or it may be a more balanced programme, including a significant rise in infrastructure spending.
它可能会采取对富人减税、对投资者实行税收减免的形式；或者可能是一种更为平衡的计划，包括显著增加基础设施支出。
Either way, growth and inflation are likely to accelerate, and the US Federal Reserve will respond by raising interest rates sooner and faster.
在这两种情形下，增长和通胀都可能会加速，美联储(Fed)将更早、更快地通过加息来做出回应。
We know from the Reagan era that a mix of loose fiscal and tight monetary policies makes for a strong dollar.
我们从里根时代的经验得知，宽松财政政策和紧缩货币政策的组合会带来强劲美元。
No surprise, then, that investors are bidding up the greenback.
因此，难怪投资者正在抬高美元汇率。
But we also know that doubts about debt sustainability can lead those investors to think twice.
但我们还知道，围绕债务可持续性的疑虑可能促使投资者三思。
Large, unfunded tax cuts will heighten their doubts.
大规模且没有资金着落的减税将加重他们的疑虑。
Questions about fiscal sustainability will be particularly troubling to investors in US Treasury bonds, given Mr Trump’s offhand comments about renegotiating the debt.
鉴于特朗普随口发表的有关重新谈判债务的言论，有关财政可持续性的疑问将尤其令美国国债投资者不安。
Thus the macroeconomic policy mix should be dollar supportive in the short run but dollar subversive in the longer term.
因此，宏观经济政策组合短期内将支撑美元，但长期而言将损害美元。
If markets are myopic, then the dollar will continue to strengthen for the moment.
如果市场是短视的，那么眼下美元将继续升值。
But if investors look forward, that moment will be relatively brief.
但如果投资者展望更遥远的未来，这一时刻将相对短暂。
Anyone care to bet on its duration?
有人愿意押注于美元升值将持续多久吗？
A second perspective flows from the likelihood that the new administration will adopt protectionist policies.
第二个视角源于新一届行政当局可能会采取保护主义政策。
Taxing and otherwise discouraging imports will strengthen the US trade accounts, and a smaller trade deficit will be dollar positive.
对进口征收关税，或者以其他方式限制进口，将强化美国的贸易账户，而较小的贸易逆差将对美元有利。
The increased price of imports will translate into modestly higher inflation, again encouraging the Fed to raise interest rates sooner and enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
进口价格上涨将转化为通胀温和上扬，同样鼓励美联储更早加息，并增强美元计价资产的吸引力。
But those same trade policies run the risk of provoking foreign retaliation, with precisely the opposite effect.
但同样的贸易政策有着激起外国报复的风险，而其影响将恰恰相反。
New tariffs will also reduce the efficiency of US production by disrupting global supply chains.
新的关税还将通过破坏全球供应链来降低美国生产的效率。
If the result is slower growth, investing in the US and the dollar will be less attractive.
如果结果是增长放缓，那么投资美国和美元的吸引力将下降。
Hence the new administration’s trade policies are likely to be dollar positive in the short run and dollar negative in the longer term.
因此，新一届行政当局的贸易政策很可能会在短期内有利于美元，但较长期而言将对美元不利。
A third perspective is the dollar’s haven status.
第三个视角是美元的避险地位。
The greenback benefits from uncertainty.
美元受益于不确定性。
Even when the US is the source of the problem, its currency benefits.
即便美国是不确定性的来源，美元也会受益。
The US Treasury market is the most liquid financial market in the world, and there is nothing investors value more in a crisis than liquidity.
美国国债市场是全球流动性最强的金融市场，在危机期间，投资者最看重流动性。
Thus some will argue that heightened uncertainty from Mr Trump’s accession to power will benefit the dollar.
因此，一些人会辩称，特朗普上台所造成的不确定性上升将有利于美元。
This view fails to appreciate the deeper roots of haven status.
这种观点未能认识到避险地位的更深层次根源。
These go beyond deep and liquid markets.
它不只是深度大、流动性强的市场。
The policies of the central bank issuing the currency and the government standing behind it must also be sound and stable.
发行货币的央行的政策，以及央行背后的政府，也必须稳健且稳定。
A currency is regarded as a haven only if the country issuing it is geopolitically secure.
一种货币只有在发行国地缘政治安全的情况下才会被视为避险资产。
It must have a strong military but it also must have strong alliances.
它必须拥有强大的军队，还必须拥有强大的同盟。
The pound was the haven currency before the dollar because Britannia ruled the waves and because Britain successfully constructed a web of geopolitical alliances.
在美元之前，英镑曾是一种避险货币，因为大不列颠统治着汹涌的海洋，也因为英国成功构建了一个地缘政治同盟之网。
So whether Mr Trump adopts policies that heighten trade tension with China, scales back US foreign commitments and turns his back on Nato will tell the tale.
因此，很多事态将说明问题，包括特朗普会不会采取加剧美中贸易紧张的政策，会不会缩减美国的海外承诺，甚至抛弃北约(Nato)。
The fate of the dollar, and potentially much more, will turn on the answer.
美元的命运，可能还有其他很多事情的命运，将取决于这些方面的答案。
