特朗普开启政治即兴秀时代大纲

As the election count was under way on Tuesday night, I visited the two places in New York where Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump planned to hold their victory parties.

周二晚上美国大选还在计票时，我在纽约市走访了两个地方，就是希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)各自计划举行庆功聚会的所在，前者是在拥有巨幅玻璃的贾维茨会议中心(Javits Center)，后者在希尔顿酒店(Hilton Hotel)。

The locations at the cavernous glass Javits Center for Clinton and Hilton Hotel for Trump are barely a mile apart, but they were a revealing study in cultural contrasts.

两个活动地点相隔不过一英里，但完全可以把它们当作一项具有启发意义的文化比较研究的对象。

The Clinton event was organised with a slick hyper-efficiency.

希拉里那边的活动组织得老练高效，

The party had clearly been planned for months on the presumption of victory and it reeked of professional stage management.

显然是基于获胜的假设筹划了好几个月了，很有专业舞台管理的味道，

However, it also felt distinctly clinical, if not impersonal.

但也显得高冷甚至缺乏人情味。

The Trump event, by contrast, felt chaotic and improvised.

相比之下，特朗普的活动让人感到混乱和即兴。

It had been thrown together so rapidly that there were still tourists staying in the hotel, and the system for channelling guests through the lobby was erratic, relying on hastily created signs.

由于是仓促组织起来的，酒店里还有游客逗留，连引导嘉宾穿过大堂的环节都混乱无序，要靠草草赶制的标识。

As the night wore on, one bar ran low on alcohol and there was little food.

随着夜深，酒吧里酒水很少了，也没什么食物。

But that air of improvisation also made it feel enthusiastic — and distinctly human.

但这种即兴的氛围也带着一种热烈气息，富有人情味儿。

These events speak volumes about the election and help to explain where America is now heading.

这两场活动颇能说明本届选举的实质，而且有助于解释美国正在走向哪里。

When the historians write the story of the extraordinary 2016 contest, they will find numerous economic reasons to explain Mr Trump’s apparent victory; his supporters were suffering economic pain, angry about globalisation and unhappy about cultural change.

当历史学家记述2016年这场不同寻常的大选时，他们会找出许多经济原因来解释特朗普为何能以明显优势取胜，比如他的支持者正承受经济阵痛，他们对全球化愤怒，对本国文化所经历的变化不满。

However, aside from these tangible economic grievances, there is another way to frame the contest: this was a battle between a slick professional political elite versus the uNPRofessional or anti-professional class.

但是除了上述明确的经济层面上的不满之外，我们还可以从另外一个角度来描述这场选举：这是专业老练的政治精英阶层与非专业、甚至是反专业阶层之间的一场斗争。

Or to put it another way, on one side of this contest was an establishment which is not only used to stage managing events with consummate skill, but also massaging messages and controlling opinion with slick data analysis.

或者换句话说，这场竞争的一方是建制派，不仅习惯于炉火纯青地组织需要具备舞台管理技巧的活动，而且还能以老练的数据分析手段篡改信息，控制舆论。

But many of the voters who have backed Mr Trump do not live in this world; they do not think they can control their lives by pressing a few buttons on their smartphones or tablets.

但许多支持特朗普的选民并不生活在这样一个世界里，他们不认为在智能手机或平板电脑上按几个键就可以控制自己的生活。

They feel that they are victims of events, constantly forced to improvise in a hostile, unfathomable world.

他们觉得自己是这些活动的受害者，一次又一次被迫在一个充满敌意、变化莫测的世界里临时凑合。

So when Mr Trump acted in an inconsistent and chaotic manner, they — unlike the professional elites — do not shudder in shock.

因此当特朗普行事反复无常，混乱无章，他们非但不会像专业精英那样震惊，反而将此视作一个迹象，表明他是人，真实且透明；他就像他们自己，会说错话（也会做错事）。

Instead, they simply view this as a sign that he is human, authentic and transparent; he, like them, makes mistakes with his words (and much else.) He is attractive to some voters because he is not stage managed; he speaks about the need for change.

他对部分选民很有吸引力，因为他没有被舞台控制，他说出了变化的需要。

Mr Trump has always instinctively understood the nature of this battle, hence his refusal to use data analysis to read the vote, teleprompter or other political tools of the trade.

特朗普总是本能地了解这场战斗的本质，因此他拒绝使用数据分析来解读投票，拒绝使用提词器或其他专业性政治工具。

Indeed, much to his aides irritation, he was reluctant to even use a professional make-up artist before he went on stage — a stance that even sparked a full blown behind-the-scenes row just before the third TV debate, since his spray tan had started to fade and gave him an unhealthy looking pallor.

事实上，他甚至不愿在上台前使用专业化妆师，这一姿态让他的助手非常恼火，甚至在第三场电视辩论前引爆了一次幕后大争吵，原因是他皮肤喷涂的小麦色已开始褪色，让他看上去苍白得不健康。

Mrs Clinton, by contrast, used every trick of modern political campaigning to perfection, including an army of stylists.

相比之下，希拉里把现代政治竞选活动的所有手段都运用的相当完美，包括一个造型师队伍。

But it made no difference — the improvised chaotic style and the call for change won over the voters.

但这些都没有用，即兴的混乱风格以及要求改革的呼声赢得了选民的心。

Call this, if you like, a vote for disruption, albeit not of the sort that Silicon Valley will like.

你大可以说这次选民们投票支持颠覆，只不过并非硅谷所喜欢的那种颠覆。

The best thing about Trump is that he is not a professional politician, one of his advisers said wearily shortly before the vote.

特朗普的最大优势是他不是一个专业的政客，特朗普的一名顾问在大选前不久疲惫的说，

But the worst thing is that he is not a professional politician.

但这也是他的最大劣势。

Either way, you cannot change him.

不管怎样，你无法改变他。

That, of course, is why markets and many business leaders feel so utterly terrified right now.

当然，这就是为何市场和很多企业界领袖现在感到极度害怕的原因。

Little wonder.

一点不奇怪。

After all, the problem with having a non-professional in office is not just that they lack experience; it is that it is also hard to predict how they might behave in the future.

毕竟，一个非专业政客执政的问题不仅仅在于他缺乏经验；还在于很难预测他将来可能会做出何种行为。

Nobody can assume that the regular rules of politics will apply; nor the rules that journalists, lobbyists, investors and business leaders have relied upon.

没有人能声称，惯常的政治规则会适用；也没有人能声称，记者、游说者、投资者和企业领袖所依赖的那些规则会适用。

We cannot even assume that the sketchy policy platforms that Mr Trump has already revealed will transpire.

我们甚至无法声称，特朗普竞选中所说的粗浅的政策纲领会成为现实。

We are heading for a world where policymaking is likely to feel as improvised as the victory party in the Hilton Hotel.

我们正在走向一个世界，在这里，政策制定可能就像希尔顿酒店的庆功派对一样，给人一种即兴的感觉。

While this type of disruption is terrifying for the establishment, the message from voters is clear: many of them want change at almost any cost

尽管这种颠覆正让建制派感到害怕，但选民们发出的信息相当明确：很多人几乎不惜一切代价的想要改变。

Hold on to your seats for a potentially wild ride.

坐稳了，未来可能踏上一段狂野之旅。

We have embarked on an era of political improvisation.

我们进入了一个政治即兴秀(political improvisation)的时代。