特朗普政府为何剑指WTO

Donald Trump promised to shake up US trade policy and just weeks into his presidency, even traditional allies are nervous.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)誓言要重塑美国的贸易政策，上任仅几周，甚至连美国的传统盟友都感到紧张不安。

He has pulled the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which predecessor Barack Obama agreed with Japan and 10 other Asia-Pacific economies. Talks are under way to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico. The EU has also conceded its own trade talks with the US have been put on ice thanks to a new president who says he would rather negotiate a deal with a departing member, the UK.

他让美国退出了前总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)与日本及另外10个亚太经济体达成的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。同时，他正在商谈重新谈判与加拿大和墨西哥之间的《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)。欧盟(EU)也承认，其与美国的贸易谈判已被搁置，原因是美国新总统称自己宁愿与正在退出欧盟的英国达成协议。

But the Trump administration’s latest target, the World Trade Organisation, potentially dwarfs all those. If things go wrong it could bring down an institution that, although only two decades old, is a pillar of the economic order the US helped establish after the second world war.

但特朗普政府的最新目标——世界贸易组织(WTO)——或许会让上述所有行动相形见绌。搞不好的话，特朗普政府可能会让世贸组织停摆，虽然该机构只有20年历史，但它构成了二战后美国协助建立的经济秩序的支柱。

What is the Trump administration up to?

特朗普政府到底意欲何为？

Incoming officials have begun looking for ways around the WTO’s dispute settlement system, which since being established in 1995 has been the primary means of resolving trade disputes between members — and, advocates say, a significant force in preventing all-out trade wars.

新任官员已开始寻找绕开世贸组织争端解决机制的方法，该机制自1995年建立以来一直是成员之间解决贸易争端的主要方式，也是支持者口中防止全面贸易战的重要力量。

In a draft paper circulated this week, administration officials even raised the idea of ignoring WTO rulings they did not like, arguing that “American citizens are subject only to laws and regulations made by the US government — not rulings made by foreign governments or international bodies”.

在上周流传的一份报告草案中，政府官员甚至提出了准备无视他们不喜欢的世贸组织裁决的想法，辩称“美国公民只受制于美国政府制定的法律法规，而不受制于外国政府或国际机构作出的裁决”。

That sentence was dropped from the final version of a report laying out the Trump administration’s trade agenda that was sent to Congress on Wednesday. But the overall message was still that Donald Trump’s America stands ready to do what it pleases, whether judges at the WTO like it or not.

在上周三发给美国国会、列出特朗普政府贸易方案的最终版报告中，这句话已被删除。但这给外界的总体感觉仍然是：无论世贸组织的法官喜欢与否，特朗普领导的美国已经准备好自行其是。

Why does that matter?

为什么美国的态度至关重要？

The US was one of the leading forces behind the creation of the WTO and, before that, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade that began codifying global trade rules after the second world war.

美国是推动世贸组织成立、以及之前的“关税与贸易总协定”（GATT，在二战后开始制定全球贸易规则）的主导力量之一。

The idea of creating such a global trade court was part of the discussions at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference that led to the formation of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But it was not until the 1990s “Uruguay Round” that the WTO — and the dispute settlement system — were created.

创建这样一个全球贸易法院的理念是1944年布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)会议讨论的一部分，这次会议催生了国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)。但直至上世纪90年代的“乌拉圭回合”(Uruguay Round)，世贸组织——及相应的争端解决机制——才成立。

Since the WTO began work in 1995, US presidents have remained advocates and sought to bring other countries in — most notably China in 2001. They have also abided by its decisions. For a US president to thumb his nose at the WTO is unprecedented. It would be a hammer blow to the institution if arguably its most important member decided to circumvent it.

自世贸组织1995年开始运行以来，美国历任总统都是其支持者，而且设法让其他国家也加入进来——最引人注目的是中国2001年加入世贸组织。他们同时也遵守世贸组织的裁定。对世贸组织嗤之以鼻在历任美国总统中都是前所未有的。如果可以说是世贸组织最重要成员的美国决定绕开它的话，对该机构将是一次沉重打击。

Were the US to begin imposing punitive tariffs on goods from countries such as China — as Mr Trump threatened during his campaign — it would probably contravene WTO rules and be challenged. If WTO judges found against the US, and Washington then ignored a ruling, it could bring an end to the system, as other countries would probably feel free to do the same.

如果美国开始对来自中国等国的商品征收惩罚性关税——如特朗普在竞选期间威胁的那样——美国很可能违反世贸组织规则，并遭到起诉。如果世贸组织法官作出不利于美国的裁决，而华盛顿无视该裁决的话，可能导致这一机制解体，因为其他国家很可能也会随意效仿。

What does the new administration want to do instead?

美国新政府打算另辟什么蹊径？

US law contains numerous tools that allow a president to retaliate against other countries for unfair trade practices. The most commonly used are allowed by the WTO and involve anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases that are usually brought by industries. They can result in hefty tariffs being levelled on specific products from specific countries.

美国法律赋予总统很多对进行不公平贸易的国家进行报复的手段。最常用的手段也是世贸组织允许的，包括各行业经常提起的反倾销、反补贴诉讼案。这些诉讼可以实现对来自特定国家的特定商品征收高额关税。

But the Trump administration is proposing using blunter instruments that have been used only rarely, if at all, since the WTO was created.

但特朗普政府正在建议动用那些自世贸组织成立以来美国几乎从未使用过的粗暴手段。

Why?

为什么？

The first reason has to do with two of the Trump administration’s goals, as laid out by Steve Bannon, one of the president’s closest advisers. They are the pursuit of “economic nationalism” and the dismantling of what he calls the “administrative state” that he sees as extending to international institutions.

第一个原因与特朗普政府的两个目标有关。这两个目标是由特朗普最亲近的顾问之一史蒂夫?班农(Steve Bannon)提出的，一是追求“经济民族主义”，二是拆解他所谓的“行政国家”——他视之为国际机构的延伸。

Mr Trump’s incoming trade team is heavy on economic nationalists and avowed protectionists, including Peter Navarro, head of a new National Trade Council, and Robert Lighthizer, a former Reagan administration official who as US trade representative will be the administration’s top trade lawyer and has in the past called for a more aggressive approach to the WTO.

特朗普新成立的贸易团队重用经济民族主义者和公然自称的保护主义者，包括彼得?纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)，执掌新成立的国家贸易委员会(National Trade Council)；罗伯特?莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)，前里根(Reagan)政府官员，他将以美国贸易代表的身份成为特朗普政府的首席贸易律师，此前他曾呼吁对世贸组织采取更强硬的立场。

The second is a growing feeling in the US — and particularly among industries such as steel that have been hit hard by competition from China — that the WTO has not worked to its advantage. Of particular concern to some are past WTO rulings rejecting some of the most aggressive US anti-dumping mechanisms.

第二个原因是在美国，尤其在那些因中国竞争而遭受重创的行业，例如钢铁业，有种情绪正日益滋长：世贸组织并没有倾向美国的利益。有些人特别在意世贸组织以往的部分裁决，它们驳回了美国一些最激进的反倾销机制。

“The WTO has only selectively enforced its own rules and it has allowed rampant trade violations by our competitors to go unchecked,” said Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, a longtime critic of US trade policy from the rust belt state of Ohio. “Instead of enforcing a level playing field the WTO has cracked down on US laws meant to crack down on illegal competition?.?.?.?It’s American workers that pay the price.”

民主党参议员谢罗德?布朗(Sherrod Brown)说：“世贸组织只是有选择地执行自己的规定，它允许我们的竞争对手肆意违反贸易规则。世贸组织没有维护公平的竞争环境，而是去打击那些旨在打击非法竞争的美国法律……结果付出代价的是美国工人。”布朗来自“锈带”俄亥俄州，长期批判美国贸易政策。

What comes next? And when?

接下来会发生什么？什么时候发生？

Roberto Azevêdo, WTO director-general, on Wednesday acknowledged “that the US has a variety of trade concerns, including about the WTO dispute settlement”, saying he was “ready to sit down and discuss these concerns and any others with the trade team in the US whenever they are ready to do so”.

世贸组织总干事罗伯托?阿泽维多(Roberto Azevêdo)上周三承认“美国有各种贸易担忧，包括对世贸组织争端解决机制的担忧”。他说自己“准备坐下来，与美国贸易团队讨论这些担忧以及其他任何问题，只要对方准备就绪。”

However, a number of key trade players in the Trump administration are not yet in place. Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary, only began work on Tuesday after waiting for weeks for Senate confirmation. Mr Lighthizer has yet to have a confirmation hearing and Senate delays mean it could be April or later before he takes office.

但是，特朗普政府的一些关键贸易官员还未就位。商务部长威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)上周二才展开工作，之前他等了几周时间才得到参议院确认。莱特希泽的确认听证会还未举行，参议院的延期意味着他可能要等到四月或更晚才能上任。

A likely trigger to a battle between Washington and the WTO would be a finding in Geneva against the US. A number of important cases involving the US and China are working their way through the system. The most important is a Chinese challenge to the refusal by the EU and US to allow it to be treated as a “market economy” under WTO rules, which Beijing filed in December.

假如世贸组织作出一项对美国的不利裁决，很可能成为触发华盛顿和世贸组织之间大战的导火索。世贸组织正在处理涉及美国与中国的一些重要案子，其中最重要的是中国于去年12月，就欧盟和美国拒绝根据世贸组织规则给予中国“市场经济”地位提出的起诉。

WTO cases take time and a final decision in many of those cases could be years away. But the Trump administration is unlikely to wait that long. It could also take unilateral actions before then. This week, that is what it has promised to do.

世贸组织的案子很花时间，其中许多案子的最终裁决可能要好多年。但特朗普政府不太可能等那么久，它可能在裁决下来之前采取单方面行动。它在上周就承诺要这样做。