特朗普政府会“正常化”吗
Is it possible that — beneath the fury and the farce — the Trump administration might settle down and turn into a conventional US government? The appointment of HR McMaster as the president’s national security adviser, has raised the hopes of those hoping for the “normalisation” of the Trump White House.
Lieutenant General McMaster is widely respected in Washington and his appointment has been greeted warmly by Republicans and Democrats. In this respect, he makes a striking contrast to Michael Flynn, the man he will replace at the head of the National Security Council. Mr Flynn is a conspiracy theorist who had also been pushed out of his previous job as head of the Defence Intelligence Agency. He was manifestly unsuited to run the NSC. Even senior Republicans had speculated to me that Mr Flynn would not last a year in his job. In the event, it took three weeks for him to be forced out.
麦克马斯特中将在华盛顿广受尊敬，他的任命得到了共和党人和民主党人的热烈欢迎。在这方面，他与迈克尔?弗林(Michael Flynn)——麦克马斯特将接替他执掌国家安全委员会(National Security Council)——形成了鲜明对比。弗林是一个阴谋论者，以前担任国防情报局(Defence Intelligence Agency)局长时就被解职过。他显然不适合掌管国家安全委员会。就连资深共和党人都曾向我做出这样的推测：弗林在这个位置上待不了一年——结果他只待了三周就被迫辞职。The ousting of Mr Flynn and his replacement by Lt Gen McMaster could be a turning point in the making of Mr Trump’s foreign policy. The three key foreign policy positions are now held by rational professionals, with James Mattis at the Pentagon, Lt Gen McMaster at the NSC and Rex Tillerson at the State Department. Working together, these three might be able to reduce the influence and impact of some of the more marginal characters who attached themselves to Mr Trump during the course of the campaign.
弗林下台并被麦克马斯特取代，可能是特朗普外交政策制定的一个转折点。外交政策三大关键职位现在都由理性专业人士担任，詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)在五角大楼(Pentagon)，麦克马斯特中将在国家安全委员会，雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在美国国务院(State Department)。这三人并肩携手，或许能减少一些在竞选时期攀附上特朗普的次要人物造成的冲击与影响。
In time, it is even possible that the most radical advisers to the president, such as Stephen Bannon and Kellyanne Conway, might be pushed to the sidelines, or even forced out of the White House. At that point, the “normalisation” of the Trump administration could take hold, with the president reduced to a titular figure, ranting and raving, but not making the important decisions.
最后，或许连特朗普身边那些最激进的顾问都可能靠边站，甚至被迫离开白宫，比如斯蒂芬?班农(Stephen Bannon)和凯莉安妮?康韦(Kellyanne Conway)。到那时，特朗普政府才可能实现“正常化”，总统将成为一个名义上的人物，他依然可以大吼大叫，胡说八道，但不做出重要决定。Even in the chaotic first weeks of Mr Trump’s presidency — before the appointment of Lt Gen McMaster — there have been some encouraging signs that normalisation of Mr Trump’s approach to the world is possible. Early suggestions that the US might recognise Taiwan or impose a naval blockade in the South China Sea — both policies that could have led to a war with China — have been quietly jettisoned.
即便是在特朗普上任后混乱的头几周里——任命麦克马斯特中将之前——也已经有了一些令人鼓舞的迹象表明特朗普的对外政策还是有可能正常化的。最初的两个提法——美国可能承认台湾，或在南中国海实施海上封锁，这两项政策都可能导致与中国的战争——都已被悄然抛弃。The idea that the Trump administration will swiftly move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem is also fading away. Sanctions on Russia have not been lifted unconditionally, nor has the US dropped its objections to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Vice-President Mike Pence has just made a strong reaffirmation of US support for Nato at the Munich Security Conference. The great wall with Mexico may be turning into a fence. So far, there has been much more talk of tariffs and border-taxes than actual action.
关于特朗普政府将迅速把美国驻以色列大使馆迁往耶路撒冷的想法也在逐渐淡去。美国没有无条件取消对俄罗斯的制裁，也没有放弃反对俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的立场。副总统迈克?彭斯(Mike Pence)近日在慕尼黑安全会议上强烈重申了美国对北约(Nato)的支持。美墨长城可能最终变成一道围栏。到目前为止，关税和边境税更多是纸上谈兵，没有落到实际行动。Like many critics of the US president, I am torn by the idea of the “normalisation” of the Trump administration. A political career based on lies and bullying does not deserve to be sanctified by success. Indeed, if Trump-style politics takes hold in the US, then American democracy will have been permanently debased.
像这位美国总统的许多批评者一样，我也被特朗普政府“正常化”的想法纠结着。一番基于谎言和霸凌的政治事业不应因成功而受到肯定。事实上，如果“特朗普式政治”在美国扎下根来，那么美国民主将永远沦为末流。There are also practical reasons for doubting whether the Trump administration can ever be truly normalised. The most telling objection is that, whoever fills the main staff positions, the administration will continue to be headed by Mr Trump. The president is erratic, irascible, ill-informed, dishonest, addicted to Twitter — and commander-in-chief. That will always mean that his administration is flirting with disaster.
一些现实的理由也令人怀疑特朗普政府是否可以真的正常化。最有说服力的反对意见是，无论谁来坐上那些主要的幕僚职位，政府仍将由特朗普领导。这位总统反复无常、暴躁、消息闭塞、不诚实、迷恋Twitter——还是三军总司令。这些往往意味着他的政府总爱招惹灾难。But if normalisation of the Trump administration is dismissed as morally flawed and politically unconvincing, the president’s foes are thrown back on the hope that his presidency will implode. The trouble is that the implosion scenario is simultaneously unlikely and dangerous.
但如果特朗普政府的正常化被视为道德上有缺陷、政治上没有说服力，那特朗普的对手们就又会抱着希望，认为他的总统宝座坐不长，会发生内爆。问题在于，发生内爆的情况既不大可能，也极为危险。For all the talk of impeachment of the president, it remains the fact that both Houses of Congress are under the control of the Republicans. As things stand, it still seems highly unlikely that the Republicans will turn on Mr Trump, who remains very popular with the party’s base. The US and the world can ill-afford the two years of political turmoil that it might take to remove Mr Trump from office. And the chances that Mr Trump and his most radical acolytes would do something truly dangerous would surely mount if he was cornered and fighting for his political survival.
尽管有很多关于弹劾总统的言论，但事实是，国会两院都在共和党控制之下。从目前情况看，共和党人与仍深受该党基层选民欢迎的特朗普翻脸的可能性仍微乎其微。美国和整个世界都无法承受迫使特朗普下台可能带来的长达两年的政治混乱。而且，如果被逼至绝境且只求为政治生存而战，特朗普及其最激进的追随者做出真正危险之事的可能性定会大增。The case in favour of hoping for normalisation is that when an erratic president is advised by inexperienced ideologues — like Mr Bannon and Ms Conway — it becomes even more urgent to surround him with moderate and experienced voices. It is immensely dangerous to have an unshackled Mr Trump in charge of the world’s most powerful military. It is very damaging to America’s status as a model for the democratic world.
让我们对正常化抱着期待的理由是，当一个反复无常的总统有一帮缺乏经验的空想家（如班农和康韦）担任顾问时，就更加迫切地需要让他身边出现温和且富有经验的声音。由不受任何约束的特朗普掌管世界最强大的军队也是极其危险的。这非常有损美国作为民主世界之模范的威望。Intellectually, therefore, I have reluctantly come around to the view that “normalisation” is the best hope we have with the Trump administration. Emotionally, however, I am still hoping for implosion. In reality, I fear the Trump administration may neither normalise nor implode. Even with Lt Gen McMaster in the White House, we face a long and dangerous four years.
因此，理智上我不情愿地接受了如下观点：我们能寄予特朗普政府的最好的希望就是“正常化”。但情感上我仍希望看到其发生内爆。然而，在现实中，我担心的是，特朗普政府或许既不会正常化，也不会内爆。即使白宫里有麦克马斯特中将，我们仍面临漫长而危险的四年。
