特朗普荒唐的贸易政策给欧盟带来机会

Donald Trump’s trade policy has been, to date, more sound than fury. The president favours hot rhetoric about pulling out of trade agreements and reducing US trade deficits with whacking big tariffs.

迄今为止，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的贸易政策都是虚张声势。这位总统喜欢放狠话，如扬言要退出众多贸易协定，以及通过巨额关税减少美国的贸易逆差。

But the actions of his administration, with the exception of pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, are comparatively tepid.

但除了退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)，相对来说，特朗普政府的行动一直不温不火。

Instead of tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, the US has started negotiations to change it. Rather than slapping tariffs on China to punish it for trade-distorting actions, the US has started an investigation into Chinese abuses of intellectual property rights.

美国没有撕毁与加拿大和墨西哥的《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)，而是启动了谈判去修订它。美国也没有对中国加征关税以惩罚其扭曲贸易的举措，而是对中国的侵犯知识产权行为展开了调查。

The latest bark was a threat to abrogate the Korea-US (Korus) bilateral trade agreement, which went into effect in 2012. The administration this week has once again stopped short of a bite, walking back from the threat. This is a relief. But it confirms that dealing with the US on trade is about damage limitation rather than positive improvements.

美国最近又扬言要废除自2012年起生效的《韩美自由贸易协定》(Korus FTA)。特朗普政府本周再次没有付诸行动，找台阶收回了这一威胁。这让各方都松了口气。但它证实了一件事：跟美国在贸易上打交道，要着眼于尽可能减低损害，而不是积极改进。

The geopolitical effect of trade deals is often overstated, but killing Korus would be spectacularly bad timing given events in North Korea and the need to show US engagement in the region. Economically, Korean tariffs are much higher than those in the US, so American exporters would be hurt proportionately more.

贸易协定在地缘政治上的影响经常被夸大，但考虑到朝鲜局势正需要美国展示对该地区的承诺，现在废除《韩美自由贸易协定》是选择了一个糟糕透顶的时机。从经济上看，韩国的关税比美国高得多，因此美国出口商们蒙受的损失将会重得多。

Symbolically, Washington’s threats to withdraw from international agreements leave the field open to the EU to claim the title of leader of the world trading system.

美国威胁要退出诸多国际协定，意味着将世界贸易体系领导者的头衔拱手让与欧盟(EU)。

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, plans to announce next week that Brussels will seek new bilateral deals, including with Australia and New Zealand. Later this year, the EU will probably agree a deal with Mercosur, the South American customs union that includes Argentina and Brazil.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)主席让-克洛德?容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)计划在下周宣布，欧盟将寻求与相关国家和地区达成新的双边协议，包括与澳大利亚和新西兰。今年晚些时候，欧盟可能会与南方共同市场(Mercosur)达成协议，南方共同市场是南美地区一个包括阿根廷和巴西在内的关税联盟。

Making a splash by signing bilateral deals does not necessarily equal anchoring the world trading system. The effect of the Mercosur deal, for example, will probably be moderated by carving out sensitive subjects, including agricultural products such as beef and sugar, from liberalisation.

高调签署一系列双边协议，并不一定等同于稳固了世界贸易体系。例如，与南方共同市场的协议的效用，会因为将一些敏感产品排除在贸易自由化对象之外而大打折扣，包括像牛肉和糖这样的农产品。

At the same time as supposedly expanding trade by cutting tariffs, the EU is giving itself more space to restrict it by making it easier to impose anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on imports.

虽然削减关税理论上应该能够实现贸易扩大，但欧盟也通过降低对进口商品征收反倾销与反补贴税的难度，为自己留下了限制贸易的空间。

Still, the overall direction of EU trade policy contrasts sharply with the defensive and destructive attitude taken by the US. The initial reports of renegotiation talks in Nafta are not positive. Rather than updating the agreement to take account of the emergence of new industries since the deal was agreed in 1995, the Trump administration seems obsessed with fighting old battles, namely trying to repatriate more of the auto manufacturing supply chain to within US borders by fiddling about with so-called rules of origin.

不过，欧盟贸易政策的总体方向与美国采取的防御性和破坏性态度形成了鲜明的对比。有关《北美自由贸易协定》重谈的初期报道不容乐观。特朗普政府没有将重心放在更新该协议、将1995年协议签订以来众多新行业的出现纳入考量，而是似乎执着于在老问题上斤斤计较，即通过摆弄所谓的原产地规则，试图将汽车制造供应链的更多环节转移回美国本土。

Even if the US achieves its aim, this is more likely to mean car manufacturers ignore the deal altogether and outsource more production outside the Nafta countries, paying tariffs rather than complying with more onerous regulations.

即使美国达到了它的目的，也更有可能意味着汽车制造商们完全不理会这项协定，将生产更多地外包给《北美自由贸易协定》以外的国家，宁可支付关税，也不服从更为繁琐的规定。

The effect of President Trump on global trade remains uncertain, thanks to his eccentric policymaking, but it is unlikely to be positive. The fact that he is prepared to countenance tearing up a deal with Korea at this juncture suggests that his obsession with using trade policy to try to reduce bilateral deficits persists.

特朗普总统不按常理出牌的决策风格使得他对全球贸易的影响尚不明确，但这种影响不太可能是积极的。他准备在这个节骨眼上撕毁与韩国的协定，表明他仍执着于利用贸易政策来减少双边贸易逆差。

The rest of the world can only hope that calmer voices in the administration and Congress continue to prevail.

其他国家只能寄希望于，特朗普政府和美国国会中那些更加理智的声音能够继续占据上风。