特朗普在落实“美国优先”政策

And then there was one. With the exception of Jim Mattis, the US defence secretary, Donald Trump has now cleared the decks of people who stand up to him. The ousting of Rex Tillerson, whose firing was announced on Twitter, eliminates the gap between Mr Trump’s anti-globalist instincts and the stance of America’s chief diplomat. Mike Pompeo, Mr Tillerson’s replacement, shares the president’s undiplomatic mindset. Mr Pompeo is a Trump enabler. Mr Trump’s America First foreign policy is now closer to becoming a reality.

现在剩下一个了。除了美国国防部长吉姆?马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)以外，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)现在已经把敢于同他对抗的一批人都清除了。特朗普在Twitter上宣布解雇雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)，消除了特朗普反全球主义本能与美国首席外交官立场之间的分歧。蒂勒森的接替者迈克?蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)与特朗普一样毫无外交思维。蓬佩奥唯特朗普马首是瞻。特朗普的“美国优先”(America First)外交政策现在更接近成为现实。

The portents for the world are far-reaching. One of Mr Tillerson’s greatest sins was to call Mr Trump a “moron”. His leaked outburst followed a meeting in which the president had said that the US should multiply its nuclear weapons arsenal tenfold. Mr Tillerson’s derogatory response broke two cardinal rules of working for Mr Trump. The first was to show disloyalty, which Mr Trump cannot abide. Questioning his IQ is taboo. The second was to repeatedly clash with him on the big questions. In practice they amount to the same thing.

对全世界来说，它产生的预兆是影响深远的。蒂勒森最大的罪之一是将特朗普称为“白痴”。特朗普在一次会议上表示美国应该将核武器数量增加到现在的10倍，之后便传出蒂勒森骂特朗普是白痴。蒂勒森的不敬违反了为特朗普工作的两项基本原则。首先是表现出了特朗普不能容忍的不忠。质疑他的智商是禁忌。其次是在重大问题上屡次与他发生冲突。实际上，这两条是一回事。

Gary Cohn, who resigned last week as Mr Trump’s economic adviser, also broke both rules. Last summer he told the Financial Times that he disapproved of Mr Trump’s even-handedness on the alt-right’s clash with protesters in Charlottesville. He also argued against Mr Trump’s protectionist instincts — as did Mr Tillerson. HR McMaster, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, is no longer seen as a brake on Mr Trump — and his days are widely rumoured to be numbered.

上周辞去总统首席经济顾问职务的加里?科恩(Gary Cohn)也违背了这两个原则。去年夏天，他告诉英国《金融时报》，他不赞成特朗普在夏洛茨维尔另类右翼与抗议者的冲突中对双方各打五十大板的做法。他还反对特朗普的保护主义本能——蒂勒森也是一样。特朗普的国家安全顾问赫伯特?雷蒙德?麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)不再被视为对特朗普的制约力量——人们普遍传言，他在白宫剩下的日子屈指可数。

In Mr Trump’s world, disloyalty and disagreement eventually blur into one. In Mr Pompeo, Mr Trump has a true loyalist. Whatever Mr Trump wants, he will prosecute. Mr Pompeo has often crossed that line as director of the Central Intelligence Agency — a role that is meant to channel neutral advice rather than policy cheerleading. For all his failings, which were manifold, Mr Tillerson did not mute his disagreements with Mr Trump.

在特朗普的世界里，不忠和分歧最终混为一谈。在蓬佩奥这里，特朗普得到一个真正的忠诚者。无论特朗普想要什么，他都会执行。蓬佩奥经常越过中央情报局(CIA)局长的角色——这个角色本应是沟通中立建议而不是为政策摇旗呐喊。尽管蒂勒森的失败是多方面的，但他并没有讳言他与特朗普的分歧。

Chief among these were Mr Trump’s impulses on Russia, Iran and US engagement with the Muslim world. It is no coincidence that Mr Tillerson’s last comment before being fired was to echo the view of the British prime minister, Theresa May, that it was “highly likely” Russia had poisoned a former spy on British soil. (Mr Trump took 24 hours to respond to Mrs May). Whether Mr Tillerson knew he was about to be fired when he said that is beside the point.

其中最主要的分歧是关于特朗普在俄罗斯、伊朗以及美国如何与穆斯林世界打交道问题上的冲动。并非偶然的是，蒂勒森在被解雇前发表的最后一条评论，是呼应英国首相特里萨?梅(Theresa May)认为俄罗斯“极有可能”在英国领土上毒杀了一名前间谍的观点。（特朗普花了24小时回应梅）。蒂勒森在说这话的时候是否知道他即将被解雇并不重要。

Mr Trump, who is loath to criticise Vladimir Putin, said he and Mr Tillerson “disagreed on many things”. By contrast, he and Mr Pompeo “have a very similar thought process — I think it is going to go very well”. It is worth stressing that Mrs May implied that Russia had attacked the UK, which could trigger Nato’s article five on collective defence. Mr Tillerson did his best to persuade Mr Trump to support Nato in public. He was not always successful. It is an open question whether Mr Pompeo will even try.

不愿指责弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)的特朗普表示，他和蒂勒森“在很多事情上意见不同”。相反，他和蓬佩奥“拥有非常相似的思考过程——我认为相处会非常顺利”。需要强调的是，梅暗示俄罗斯攻击英国，这可能触发北约(Nato)关于集体防御的第五条款。蒂勒森竭尽全力说服了特朗普在公开场合支持北约。他并非总能成功说服特朗普。蓬佩奥是否会尝试这么做都很难说。

Second, Mr Pompeo is a visceral critic of the Iran nuclear deal, which he says should be scrapped. He is of one mind with Mr Trump on this. Mr Tillerson and Mr Mattis have argued that torpedoing the deal would be disastrous. It could lead to Iran’s rapid nuclearisation and war with Saudi Arabia. It would also deepen America’s split with its European allies. The chances that Mr Trump will pull the plug on the deal when it comes up for certification in a few weeks have risen sharply.

第二，蓬佩奥打心眼里反对伊朗核协议，他称应该撕毁该协议。在该问题上，他和特朗普是一条心。蒂勒森和马蒂斯认为，毁掉该协议将带来灾难性后果。可能导致伊朗迅速实现核武器化，并且与沙特阿拉伯开战。这还会加深美国与其欧洲盟友之间的分歧。未来几周到了特朗普认证的时候，他退出该协议的可能性大幅增加。

The potential impact on Mr Trump’s planned summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is great. North Korea experts dismiss the chances that Mr Trump could persuade “rocket man” to denuclearise the Korean peninsula — Mr Trump’s explicit aim. If the US pulled out of the Iran deal, Mr Kim would have even less incentive to strike a bargain with Mr Trump. The dangers of a belligerent fallout from a failed Kim Jong Un summit are acute. As CIA chief, Mr Pompeo has spoken publicly about removing Mr Kim.

特朗普计划与朝鲜的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)举行峰会可能带来巨大影响。朝鲜问题专家对特朗普说服这位“狂人”实现朝鲜半岛无核化（特朗普的明确目标）的可能性不屑一顾。如果美国退出伊朗核协议，金正恩就更没有动力与特朗普达成交易了。美朝峰会失败极可能带来交战后果。在担任中央情报局局长时，蓬佩奥曾公开说起过除掉金正恩。

Finally, there is the Muslim world. Mr Pompeo’s view is in line with the clash of civilisations argument made by Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s former chief strategist. The two are friends. Mr Pompeo has frequently spoken the language of holy war between radical Islam and a Christian west. By contrast, Mr Tillerson stuck to the traditional script about Islamist bad actors perverting a noble religion. Where this will lead is ominous for US relations in the Middle East and beyond.

最后，还有穆斯林世界。蓬佩奥的观点与特朗普前首席战略顾问史蒂夫?班农(Stephen Bannon)关于文明冲突的观点一致。他们二人是朋友。蓬佩奥经常说起圣战语言，称激进的伊斯兰教徒与遵循基督教义的西方之间有一场圣战。相比之下，蒂勒森坚持传统说法——伊斯兰教徒中的害群之马扭曲了崇高的伊斯兰教。蓬佩奥接替蒂勒森出任美国国务卿，给美国在中东乃至整个穆斯林世界的关系带来了不祥的征兆。

On Tuesday, Mr Trump said he was now “closer to having the cabinet I want”. Two men stand between Mr Trump and an unfettered presidency. The first is Mr Mattis. His role now assumes even greater importance. The second is Robert Mueller, the special counsel. Their job security is now indistinguishable from US national security.

周二，特朗普称眼下“接近于组成我想要的内阁”。现在还有两个人阻碍特朗普得到不受约束的总统权力。第一个是马蒂斯。如今他的角色甚至显得更加重要。第二个是特别检察官罗伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)。眼下，他们能否保住自己的职位，直接关系到美国的国家安全。