特朗普会不会成为美国版普京
On a blustery evening, a crowd of thousands gather at a political rally, many eager to explain to me why their country needs a strong leader, is right to take a more aggressive stance on the world stage and should be respected and feared by other nations.
在一个狂风大作的夜晚，数千人聚集在一次政治集会上，很多人迫不及待地向我解释，他们的国家为何需要一个强硬的领导人、为何应该在世界舞台上采取更具攻击性的立场、以及为何应该让其他国家敬畏。
It’s a scene not unlike those I have covered over the past five years as a correspondent for the Financial Times in Russia. Only this time I have not come to see the adoring fans of Vladimir Putin. I am in Macon, Georgia, and the man we are waiting for is Donald Trump.
这个场景，与过去五年我作为英国《金融时报》记者在俄罗斯工作时报道过的那些不无相似。只是这一次我看到的不是崇拜弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)的粉丝。我所在的地方是美国乔治亚州梅肯市(Macon)，我们翘首以待的人是唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump) 。
One month into a new job covering the US presidential campaign, I am starting to find that the Trump phenomenon is more understandable when viewed through the lens of a Putin-Trump Venn diagram — or, rather, the Venn diagram of their supporters.
报道美国总统竞选的新工作做了一个月后，我开始发现，从普京和特朗普的共同点、或者说从两人支持者的共同点这个角度来看，特朗普现象更容易理解。
Two weeks ago in Macon at a stadium full of diehard Trump supporters, I met Tal Wollschlaeger, a law student, who declared apropos of nothing and with no knowledge of my background that he wanted to see a US president more Putin.
两周前，在汇聚于梅肯一个体育馆里的特朗普铁杆支持者中，我遇见了法律系学生塔尔茠尔施莱格(Tal Wollschlaeger)。在不知道我身份的情况下，他突然向我宣布，他希望看到美国有一个更像……普京的总统。
“I think Putin is brilliant!” the twenty-something Mr Wollschlaeger told me as two of his friends nodded in agreement. “He’s taking care of business the way he has to. His country loves him. He’s done well for them. He does what he says and he gets the job done.”
“我觉得普京太棒了！”20多岁的沃尔施莱格说，“他按照他必须的方式处理事情。他的国家热爱他。他领导得很好。他说到做到，能办成事。”沃尔施莱格说话时，他的两个朋友在一旁频频点头赞同。
He continued: “We just have to reassert ourselves. We’ve got to the point where Britain and France can’t look to us for advice because we can’t make the first move any more, because really we’re too weak. We need to get our seat back at the table.”
他接着说：“我们真的必须重新强硬起来。我们已经到了这样一个地步——英国和法国无法指望我们提供建议，因为我们已不再能率先采取行动，因为我们实在太软弱了。我们需要拿回自己的位置。”
At first it seemed like a one-off, a random Putin fan sprouting up like a unicorn in a southern US city nicknamed the Heart of Georgia. But I don’t think Mr Wollschlaeger is an outlier. In Dubuqe, Iowa, a crucial primary state, the Associated Press recently spoke to Duane Ernster, a local Trump supporter who also offered the Putin comparison. “Maybe we need a warrior instead of a politician,” he said. “People compare Mr Trump to Putin. There’s something to be said about the man who takes care of the Russian people.”
一开始，这看上去只是一个独一无二的普京粉丝，像独角兽一样，偶然地出现在一个绰号为“乔治亚之心”(Heart of Georgia)的美国南部城市。但现在我觉得沃尔施莱格并非独一无二。在对初选结果至关重要的爱荷华州杜比克市，美联社(AP)最近采访了当地一名特朗普的支持者——杜安萠楓斯特(Duane Ernster)，他也把特朗普比作普京。“或许我们需要的是战士，而不是政客。”他说，“人们把特朗普比作普京。这个把俄罗斯人民照顾得不错的人，还是有些地方值得称道的。”
In a Gallup survey last year — a period marked by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the war in Ukraine and western sanctions — Mr Putin ranked as the 10th most admired man in America, beating among others vice-president Joe Biden, the Dalai Lama and the actor George Clooney.
在盖洛普(Gallup)去年的一次民调中，普京在美国最受崇拜的人物中位列第十，超过了美国副总统乔拜登(Joe Biden)、达赖喇嘛和男星乔治克鲁尼(George Clooney)。而俄罗斯吞并克里米亚、乌克兰战争以及西方对俄罗斯施加制裁正是去年的标志性事件。
To Mr Putin’s admirers in the US, he offers a tantalising view of what it might be like to have a president stymied by neither Congress nor two-term limits — and one who treats the delicate art of diplomacy more like judo than chess. To many of these people, Mr Trump represents the quixotic tsar who will rid Washington of its gridlock, reverse failed foreign policies and end years of perceived economic decline. If he is Trump the Terrible, so much the better.
对于普京在美国的崇拜者来说，他引出了一种诱人的遐想：有一个不受国会和两届任期限制的总统会是什么样，有一个将微妙的外交艺术当做柔道、而非国际象棋来处理的总统又会是什么样？对他们中很多人来说，特朗普代表着唐吉坷德式沙皇，他将使华盛顿摆脱僵局、扭转美国外交政策的失败、并终结人们眼中连年的经济下滑。如果他是坏人版特朗普，那就更好了。
In his campaign, Mr Trump appears to be taking chapters out of Mr Putin’s handbook. There is the creation of a perceived external threat (in Mr Putin’s case, the US and its encroachment into Russia’s sphere of influence; in Mr Trump’s, it is Muslims and illegal immigrants); the salty language; and the stranglehold on national television. Both men are credited with being spontaneous, unpredictable and counter-intuitive, qualities that make it difficult for opponents to outmanoeuvre them.
特朗普的竞选似乎从普京那里学了不少招数。比如树立一个假想的外部威胁（普京树立的威胁是美国及其对俄罗斯势力范围的侵占；特朗普树立的威胁则是穆斯林和非法移民）；粗俗的语言；打压全国性电视台。二人都被认为随性、难以捉摸、反直觉，这些品质让他们的对手很难用计谋战胜他们。
The two men’s ratings appear to defy logic. Mr Putin’s remains strong despite a worsening economy on the back of westerns sanctions, lower oil prices and the plunging rouble. Mr Trump’s support improves the more offensive or outlandish his comments become.
这两人的支持率似乎不合常理。在西方制裁、油价下跌以及卢布暴跌的背景下，俄罗斯经济状况日益恶化，尽管如此，普京的支持率仍然强劲。特朗普的言论越是过火、离奇，他的支持率则越是节节上涨。
The comparisons to Mr Putin seem to suit Mr Trump just fine, perhaps because he knows they suit part of his base. In the past few months, Mr Trump has declared that he would “get along” with Mr Putin in a way that President Barack Obama has not, and he has been one of the few candidates to express his approval of Moscow’s military campaign in Syria. Mr Trump likes to joke that he and the Russian president are “stablemates” because they both appeared (separately) on the same episode of the US news programme 60 Minutes.
被比作普京似乎挺合特朗普的心意，或许是因为他知道，这样的比较合乎他的铁杆支持者心意。过去数月，特朗普宣称他将以美国总统巴拉克攠巴马不曾有过的方式与普京“相处”，同时，他还一直是少数几个表达认可莫斯科在叙利亚军事行动的候选人之一。特朗普喜欢开玩笑说，他和这位俄罗斯总统是“同厩之马”，因为他们曾（分别）出现在美国新闻节目《60分钟》(60 Minutes)的同一期中。
As for Mr Putin’s impression of Mr Trump? He has yet to comment.
至于普京对特朗普的印象？他目前尚未置评。
