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特朗普的支持率其实提高了,但依旧不高

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Donald Trump is more popular than ever before.

特朗普的支持率其实提高了,但依旧不高

唐纳德·特朗普比以往更受欢迎了。

Donald Trump is the only president in modern history to never crack 50% job approval in Gallup's weekly tracking poll of how Americans perceive the job that the president is doing.

盖洛普咨询公司每周跟踪调查美国公民对总统工作的支持情况,发现唐纳德·特朗普是近代唯一一位支持率从未达到50%的总统。

But in the latest Gallup numbers, Trump is at 46% approval -- the highest mark he has reached in more than two years as President.

但最近一次调查数据显示特朗普支持率为46%,这是他担任总统两年多以来的最高值了。

Yes, more people still disapprove of the job Trump is doing (50%) than approve of it. And, yes, again, Trump has come close to 46% approval before -- he got to 45% in June 2018 and in January 2017. And, yes, for a third time, there is no meaningful statistical difference between 45% approval and 46% approval.

不支持特朗普工作的人(占50%)的确比支持的人多,而且特朗普支持率的确曾接近过46%,2018年六月和2017年一月达到过45%,其实45%和46%也没太大差别。

But, still! This is Donald Trump we are talking about. A man who has struggled for much of his presidency to even win the approval of 40% of Americans for the job he is doing. Just look at Trump's week-by-week performance in Gallup. Not good!

但你要注意我们讨论的可是特朗普呀,他甚至为了获得美国民众对其总统工作40%的支持率都已费尽心力了,看看盖洛普咨询公司特朗普的每周支持率就知道了,他并不得人心。

What explains Trump's upward trajectory? Likely a series of good economic numbers -- led by 3.2% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019. (Worth noting: The Gallup poll was out of the field by April 30, meaning that the gangbusters April jobs report isn't even factored into Trump's numbers.)

特朗普的支持率为什么会上升呢?可能是因为一堆不错的经济数据,2019年第一季度GDP增长3.2%。(值得注意的是:盖洛普咨询公司的调查截止到4月30日,也就是说4月的光辉战绩对特朗普支持率的影响都还没算在内呢。)

Dig into the numbers and you see something very interesting. Trump's gains of late are not, as you might expect, from Republicans. Nine in 10 Republicans backed Trump in March, the same number who did so in April. It's among Democrats where Trump's job approval has improved the most month-to-month; just 4% approved of the job he was doing in March compared to 10% who said the same in April. Independents went from 33% job approval for Trump in March to 39% in April.

深入分析这一支持率你会发现一件很有趣的事,特朗普最近获得的支持率并非如你所想是来自共和党,3月特朗普在共和党中的支持率是90%,4月依然如此。对特朗普工作的支持率增幅最大的是民主党,每月都在提高,3月份有4%的人支持他的工作,4月就上升到10%。3月份他在无党派人士中的支持率是33%,4月份提高到了39%。