专家警告特朗普对华提高关税可能引发贸易战争

On the campaign trail, Donald J. Trump has promised to do quite a few things that are beyond the powers of an American president, like billing Mexico for a border wall. But when it comes to foreign trade, his powers as president would come closer to his expansive ambitions.

在竞选活动中，唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)做出的不少承诺超出了美国总统的权力范围，比如让墨西哥出钱在美墨边境修墙。不过，在对外贸易方面，特朗普如果真的当上了美国总统，他手中的权力就会和他膨胀的野心更加匹配。

As president, Mr. Trump could seek to penalize other nations for undercutting American manufacturers or stealing American ideas. He could also pursue congressional legislation to impose a 45 percent tariff, or tax, on imported Chinese goods, as he has proposed.

当上总统，特朗普就有权力寻求对一些国家施加惩罚，理由是这些国家给美国生产商带来损失，或者窃取了美国的想法。他还可以向国会寻求立法，比如按照他提出的，对中国的进口商品征收45%的关税。

The bottom line, some experts say, is that Mr. Trump might well be able to squeeze China.

一些专家表示，关键在于，特朗普克可能的确会有挤压中国的能力。

That does not mean, however, that his punitive approach would ease America’s economic pains. In fact, a range of experts agree that Mr. Trump’s proposals are more likely to deepen those problems, particularly if China or other targeted nations retaliate, rather than accept his demands.

但是，这并不意味着他的惩罚措施可以缓解美国的经济阵痛。事实上，很多专家认为，更大的可能是特朗普的提议会加剧这些问题，特别是中国或其他被针对的国家也许不仅不接受他的要求，反而会采取报复行动。

Starting a trade war might be cathartic for workers who have lost jobs, but it is unlikely to create a lot of factory work.

掀起贸易战对于失去工作的人来说兴许是一种宣泄，但不太可能创造出大量的工业岗位。

“There’s no way a tariff of this kind could deliver the kind of benefits that he’s talking about, and it’s quite wrong to think that the big problem for American workers has been foreign trade,” said J .W. Mason, a professor of economics at John Jay College and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank. “But I think it could be very destructive for the rest of the world.”

“这样的关税绝不可能带来他说的那种好处。觉得给美国劳动者带来重大麻烦的是对外贸易活动，这个想法也是相当错误的，”约翰·杰刑事司法学院(John Jay College)经济学教授、自由派智库罗斯福研究所(Roosevelt Institute)的研究员J·W·梅森(J. W. Mason)说。“我认为，这么做反而可能会给世界其他地区造成巨大破坏。”

Mr. Trump’s views on trade are among his oldest and steadiest public policy positions. He has long maintained that other countries are taking advantage of the United States because Americans spend more money on foreign goods than the rest of the world spends on American goods. And he has long argued for slapping higher tariffs on those foreign goods in order to fortify the American economy.

在特朗普的公共政策立场中，有关贸易的观点是最持久和最稳定的。长久以来，他一直坚称，其他国家在占美国的便宜，因为美国购买外国商品花费的资金要比世界其他国家购买美国商品的花费更多。他还长期主张对这些进口商品设置更高的关税，以巩固美国经济。

Trade was the first policy issue Mr. Trump mentioned last Tuesday in a speech after his latest round of victories in five northeastern primaries.

贸易是特朗普在上周二的演讲中提到的第一项政策议题。此时他刚在东北部五个州的初选中获得了最新一轮的胜利。

“Our jobs are being sucked away from our country and we’re not going to let it happen anymore, folks,” he said at a victory party in New York that night.

“我国的工作机会正在被人抽干，同胞们，我们不会再让这种事情发生了，”他当晚在纽约的庆功宴上说。

It emerged again Wednesday in Washington during what was billed as a major foreign policy speech.

周三，这种论调在华盛顿再度出现。周三的讲话被标榜为特朗普的一次外交政策重要讲话。

This Tuesday, Mr. Trump hopes to sweep the delegates in Indiana and all but sew up the Republican nomination. Nowhere has trade figured more centrally than in the Hoosier State, where the air conditioner maker Carrier opted to move operations to Mexico, becoming a recurrent feature in Mr. Trump’s anti-free-trade litanies.

本周二，特朗普希望一举拿下印第安纳州的全部代表，把共和党提名稳稳攥在手中。贸易问题在印第安纳州的地位，比其他任何地方都更重。该州的空调生产商开利(Carrier)选择将企业迁往墨西哥，因而在特朗普连篇累牍的反自由贸易言论中反复出现。

China has prospered over the last few decades by focusing its economy on low-cost manufacturing for foreign markets. Exports to the United States soared, particularly after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. American businesses and consumers bought $481.9 billion in Chinese goods in 2015, about one-fifth of all imports and the most from any country. But manufacturing employment in the United States has fallen sharply. A 2013 study estimated that China’s rise had eliminated at least one million domestic factory jobs.

过去几十年里，中国把经济重心放在面向外国市场的低成本制造业上，并借此实现了繁荣。中国对美国的出口剧增，尤其是在2001年加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)之后。在2015年，美国的企业和消费者购买了价值4819亿美元的中国商品，约占美国所有进口商品的五分之一，比其他任何国家都多。但美国的制造业就业率急剧下滑。2013年的一项研究估计，中国的崛起导致美国国内至少100万个工厂就业岗位流失。

In the current campaign, Mr. Trump has proposed a 45 percent tax on Chinese imports and a 35 percent tax on Mexican imports. He has also proposed tariffs on goods that specific American companies produce in foreign countries, including Carrier air-conditioners and Ford automobiles.

此次竞选期间，特朗普建议对中国和墨西哥的进口货物分别征收45%和35%的关税。他还提议对特定的美国公司在外国生产的商品征收关税，包括开利空调和福特汽车。

Mr. Trump has said the threat of such tariffs would persuade China, for example, to modify the economic policies that he describes as providing unfair advantages to Chinese companies. Rather than incur his wrath, he says, American companies would be persuaded to keep more of their factories close to home.

特朗普表示，征收这类关税的威胁会说服中国等国家调整经济政策。他称相关政策给中国公司提供了不公平的优势。他说美国公司不会来触怒他，而是会信服地将它们的工厂放在离家近的地方。

“The 45 percent is a threat that if they don’t behave,” Mr. Trump said at a Republican debate in Miami last month, the United States “will tax you.”

“45%的关税是一个威胁，你要敢不老实，”特朗普上月在迈阿密的一场共和党辩论上说，美国“就会收你的税”。

He added: “It doesn’t have to be 45; it could be less. But it has to be something because our country and our trade and our deals and most importantly our jobs are going to hell.”

他接着说：“不一定是45%，可能会低一点。但必须得征收一些关税，因为不然的话，我们的国家、我们的贸易、我们的买卖，最重要的是我们的工作岗位就会走向地狱。”

As president, Mr. Trump would have some latitude to reverse a course that the nation has pursued for decades. But the results could be troublesome on multiple fronts. The removal of trade barriers has played a significant role in reducing global poverty and encouraging peace between nations, achievements that could be eroded by tit-for-tat backsliding.

若能当上总统，特朗普将有能力扭转美国几十年来一直遵循的一项方针。但结果可能会给多个领域带来麻烦。消除贸易壁垒在减轻全球贫困和鼓励国家之间和平共处中发挥了重要作用。倒退到以牙还牙的状态可能会损害这些成就。

“The basic principle is that a sovereign state enters trade agreements of its free will, and it can get back out,” said Robert Howse, the Lloyd C. Nelson professor of International law at N.Y.U. School of Law. “But that’s the easy part.”

“基本的原则是，主权国家自愿加入一项贸易协定，也可以退出，”纽约大学法学院劳埃德·C·纳尔逊国际法教授罗伯特·豪斯(Robert Howse)说。“但这方面好办。”

Imposing sweeping tariffs would reverse a mainstay of United States foreign policy. Beginning after World War II, the United States gradually reduced its import taxes and pushed other nations to do the same, seeking not only to promote increased trade but to prevent conflict. The United States now imposes average weighted import tariffs of just 1.4 percent, according to the World Bank, among the lowest rates in the world.

大范围征收关税会推翻美国外交政策的一个主要支柱。从二战结束后开始，美国逐步降低进口关税，并推动其他国家也这么做，寻求促进已经在增加的贸易，并防止冲突。据世界银行(World Bank)称，美国现在征收的进口关税的加权平均值仅为1.4%，是关税最低的国家之一。

Under existing laws, Mr. Trump could impose tariffs only on specific categories of imports, not whole countries, and only by demonstrating specific violations of trade rules, such as export subsidies. “There are at least 50 sets of laws and regulations that exist that China has, at least in spirit, crossed the boundaries,” Sam Clovis, an adviser to Mr. Trump, said in an interview.

根据现行法律，特朗普只能对特定类别而非所有国家的进口货物征收关税，并且只能通过证明对方的确违反了贸易规则，如提供出口补贴的途径。“至少有50套现有的法律和规定可以用来证明，中国至少在精神上是越界了，”特朗普的顾问萨姆·克洛维斯(Sam Clovis)在接受采访时说。

But Mr. Trump would have the difficult task of proving that China is breaking the rules before the World Trade Organization, which polices global commerce. International trade laws limit the type of help governments can provide to companies, but the role of the Chinese government is particularly opaque, said Mark Wu, a professor of law at Harvard and a former United States trade negotiator in the administration of President George W. Bush.

但特朗普将面临一项困难的任务，即证明中国当着管理全球商业秩序的世贸组织的面违反了规则。曾在乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)政府担任美国贸易谈判代表的哈佛大学教授伍人英(Mark Wu)表示，国际贸易法限制了政府可向公司提供的帮助的类型，但中国政府所扮演的角色是特别模糊的。

“China’s economy is its own beast, and it has a form that was not envisioned at the time these rules were created 20 years ago,” Mr. Wu said. “W.T.O. rules are not necessarily equipped to address all of the problematic aspects of that China Inc. system as far as American exporters are concerned.”

“中国经济自成一体，20年前制定这些规则时没有预见到它是这样的形式，”伍人英说。“从美国出口商的角度看，世贸组织的规则不见得能应付中国公司体系令人质疑的诸多方面。”

In fact, one of Mr. Trump’s favorite charges, that China and other nations are suppressing the value of their currencies, is actually not a violation of existing trade agreements.

特朗普最喜欢提出的一项指控是称中国和其他一些国家压低本国货币的币值。但实际上，这项指控并未违反现有的贸易协议。

A central problem is defining currency manipulation in a way that excludes the United States — in particular, the Federal Reserve’s post-recession stimulus campaign, which had the effect of weakening the dollar much in the same way that other countries do to their currency.

核心问题是，用一种将美国——尤其是美联储的后衰退刺激计划——排除在外的方式定义货币操纵行为。和其他国家对本国货币采取的措施一样，美联储的刺激计划起到了让美元走软的作用。

Alternatively, Mr. Trump could pursue the radical option of seeking legislation to impose a broad China tariff, in effect demolishing the rules of global trade.

或者，特朗普也可能会选择激进的方案，寻求通过立法来对中国的商品广泛征收关税。这实际上是在推翻全球贸易规则。

“It would be a flagrant violation,” said Alan O. Sykes, a professor of law at Stanford and an expert on international economic relations. “There is no prior violation of W.T.O. law that would be even close.”

“那将是公然的违规，”斯坦福大学法学教授、国际经济关系专家艾伦·Q·赛克斯(Alan O. Sykes)说。“这种对世贸组织法律的严重违反将是空前的。”

The impact of such legislation would touch almost every aisle at Walmart.

这样的法律几乎会影响到沃尔玛(Walmart)所有的货物品类。

In 2015, Americans bought $14.2 billion worth of Chinese shoes, $2.5 billion of Chinese jewelry and $593 million of Chinese rugs. And, most of all, cellphones — $64 billion worth, according to the Commerce Department.

据商务部称，2015年美国从中国购买了价值142亿美元的鞋、25亿美元的珠宝和5.93亿美元的毛毯。最重要的是，美国还购买了价值640亿美元的手机。

All told, the United States imported $481.9 billion in Chinese goods in 2015, a record.

在2015年，美国总共购买了价值4819亿美元的中国商品，打破了记录。

But research suggests that the price of Chinese goods would rise by significantly less than 45 percent because companies would hold the line to preserve their market share. Consumers can also buy comparable goods. When the United States imposed a 35 percent tariff on Chinese tires in 2009, imports of tires from China declined while imports from Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand rose sharply.

但研究表明，中国商品的价格涨幅会远低于45%，因为相关公司会坚持下去，以保持自己的市场份额。消费者也可以购买其它同类商品。美国2009年对中国轮胎征收35%的关税时，来自中国的轮胎进口下降，来自印尼、墨西哥和泰国的进口轮胎却大幅增加。

For the same reasons, however, economists see little chance that a tariff would achieve Mr. Trump’s goal of encouraging domestic production. They say it is even less likely to create large numbers of new factory jobs. American manufacturing output is at the highest level in history and employment has fallen because of large gains in efficiency, a trend that is unlikely to reverse.

然而，因为同样的原因，经济专家认为，通过增加关税来实现特朗普鼓励国内生产这个目标是不太可能的。他们甚至称，这么做不太可能会创造大量新的工厂就业岗位。因为效率大幅提升，美国的制造业产出处于史上最高水平，就业下降。这种趋势不太可能逆转。

China could retaliate by imposing its own tariffs. China responded to the tire tariff, for example, by imposing a tariff on American chicken parts.

中国可能会通过征收关税来进行报复。比如，中国对轮胎关税的回应便是对美国的鸡肉产品征税。

The United States sold $116.2 billion in goods to China in 2015, including aircraft parts, automobiles and semiconductors — high-value industries in which workers earn high wages. Losing China’s market could mean sacrificing better jobs for less desirable ones.

美国2015年向中国卖出了价值1162亿美元的商品，包括飞机零部件、汽车和半导体。在这些商品所属的高价值行业，工人们享受着高薪。失去中国市场可能意味着为了不那么好的岗位而牺牲了更好的岗位。

Doug Oberhelman, chairman and chief executive of Caterpillar, described higher tariffs as “very dangerous” in February. “We’re 5 percent of the world population,” said Mr. Oberhelman, who spoke in his capacity as president of the Business Roundtable, a pro-trade lobby. “Ninety-five percent of our potential customers are elsewhere. We’ve got to learn and figure out how to deal with that.”

卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)董事长兼首席执行官道格·奥伯赫尔曼(Doug Oberhelman)曾在今年2月表示，提高关税“非常危险”。“我们的人口只占全世界的5%，”奥伯赫尔曼以支持自由贸易的游说团体商业圆桌会议(Business Roundtable)会长的身份说。“我们的潜在顾客中，95%都在其他地方。我们得学习并弄清楚如何应对这种情况。”

The damage to international trade agreements could also have deep and enduring consequences.

对国际贸易协议的损害，可能也会带来深远、持久的后果。

One of the central benefits of the current system is that it separates trade disputes from other kinds of conflict. The global effort to reduce tariffs after World War II “was dreamed up as a way to prevent world wars,” said Mr. Howse, the N.Y.U. professor. “That should not be forgotten.”

当前这个制度的核心好处之一是，它把贸易争端和其他类型的冲突区分开了。二战后全球降低关税的行动“被设想为一种预防世界大战的途径，”前述的纽约大学教授豪斯称。“这一点不应忘记。”