对特朗普要观其行
He was supposed to be leading a revolt against America’s elites. In practice Donald Trump is laying out a banquet for their delectation. The Trump White House is drawing up plans for across-the-board deregulation, tax cuts and a new generation of defence contracts. The only question is at what speed.
他本应领导一场对美国精英的反抗。但实际上，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)正在为这些精英准备一场饕餮盛宴。特朗普主政的白宫正在为全面放松管制、减税和签订新一代国防合同制定计划。唯一的问题在于以多快的速度进行。In contrast, Mr Trump’s middle-class economic plans, such as they were, are already receding. The chances of a big infrastructure bill are rapidly dimming. In marketing they call this bait and switch. The effect of Mr Trump’s economic agenda will be to deepen the conditions that gave rise to his candidacy.
相比之下，特朗普之前提出的中产阶级经济计划早已渐渐远去。出台大型基础设施建设法案的可能性正迅速变得渺茫。在市场营销中，他们将这称为“偷梁换柱”。特朗普的经济议程，将加剧人们当初给他总统候选人资格时原本希望他解决的种种状况。
The biggest winners will be on Wall Street, in the fossil fuel energy sector and defence. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s most influential adviser, last week described the bonfire of regulations as the “deconstruction of the administrative state”. For every new regulation, two will be scrapped. The first clutch will come this week with executive orders undoing Barack Obama’s “clean power plan” that limits carbon dioxide emissions and a separate one on clean water. Anticipation of this has helped to fuel the boom in energy stocks since Mr Trump was elected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more in Mr Trump’s first month than for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.
最大的赢家将出现在华尔街、化石燃料能源领域和防务领域。上周，特朗普身边最有影响力的顾问斯蒂芬?班农(Stephen Bannon)将这场火烧监管规则的“监管篝火”形容为“对行政国家的解构”。每出台一条新规，就将有两条旧规被废止。本周将打出第一记重拳——特朗普政府将颁布行政命令，取消巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)时期限制二氧化碳排放的“清洁能源计划”以及另一项清洁水计划。自特朗普当选以来，对此的期待已经助推了能源股的上涨。特朗普上任首月，道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)的涨幅比自富兰克林?罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)以后的任何一任总统上任首月都高。
Financial stocks have also over-performed since the election. Many, if not most, of the protections included in the Dodd-Frank law after the collapse of Lehman Brothers are in Mr Trump’s sights. These include the Volcker rule that restricts banks from speculating with other people’s money, and possibly protections designed to shield the consumer — what Mr Trump called the “forgotten American” — from reckless marketing. Such rules have inhibited Mr Trump’s Wall Street friends from lending money, he said earlier this month.
金融股自特朗普当选以来的表现也相当强劲。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后通过的《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)中的许多（甚至多数）保护性规定都已是特朗普的眼中钉。其中包括限制银行利用他人资金进行投机的沃尔克规则(Volcker rule)，以及旨在防止消费者——特朗普口中“被遗忘的美国人”——权益遭不计后果的营销侵害的保护性规定。特朗普本月早些时候曾表示，这些规定阻碍了他在华尔街的朋友发放贷款。Elsewhere the open season is well under way. Mr Bannon’s “deconstruction” is already touching most areas of US federal activity. Last week the stocks of private prison companies soared after the Department of Justice scrapped an Obama rule that ended the outsourcing of federal incarceration. They had already jumped after the announcement the Trump administration would detain illegal immigrants in federal centres rather than release them.
其他领域也在大举放松管制。班农的“解构”已经触及到美国联邦政府活动的大多数领域。上周，在美国司法部(Department of Justice)取消奥巴马时期一项终止联邦监狱外包的规定后，私营监狱公司的股价一路飙升。在特朗普政府宣布将在联邦拘留中心拘留非法移民（而非释放他们）之后，它们的股价早已大涨。Likewise, the new head of the Federal Communications Commission has purged key parts of the net neutrality rules put in place to shield consumers from discrimination. The FCC also scrapped plans to open the cable box market to competition. Expect similar field days in the for-profit higher education sector, defence industrial stocks and public housing contractors.
同样，美国联邦通信委员会(Federal Communications Commission)新任负责人清除了旨在保护消费者不受歧视的网络中立规则的关键部分。该委员会还取消了有线电视机顶盒市场开放竞争的计划。预计营利性的高等教育业、防务工业股票及公共住房承包商都将迎来类似的好时光。
