世行不应向特朗普妥协

It cannot be much fun running the World Bank these days. Apart from the complaints of the institution’s perennially fractious staff, the multilateral lender has seen increased competition from other sources of finance over the past two decades. Now it faces rising criticism from its largest shareholder.

如今执掌世界银行(World Bank)不可能很好玩。除了该机构一向难管的员工的抱怨外，这家多边贷款机构在过去20年里遭到了其他资金来源的更多竞争。现在它还面临其最大股东越来越多的批评。

Donald Trump’s administration, never likely to be a great fan of a global institution that sends American money abroad, has complained that the bank lends too much to countries such as China, which can borrow elsewhere.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的行政当局永远不太可能成为一家将美国资金输往境外的全球机构的粉丝。特朗普政府抱怨称，世行目前向中国这样有能力从其他途径获得资金的国家放贷太多。

In the past, the response of the bank’s president, the American Jim Yong Kim, has been to roll with the punches rather than robustly standing up for the institution’s founding principles. This year he tried to win over Mr Trump by helping to create and administer a fund for women’s development set up by Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter.

过去，世行行长、美国人金墉(Jim Yong Kim)对此类批评的回应是大事化小，而不是坚定捍卫该机构的成立原则。今年早些时候，他为了争取特朗普的支持，还曾帮助创建和管理由总统女儿伊万卡?特朗普(Ivanka Trump)设立的一只女性发展基金。

But the charm offensive seems to have had little effect. The US is objecting to the fact the bank continues to lend a large amount of money to middle-income countries, and is threatening to withhold its contribution to a general capital increase unless changes are made.

但这场魅力攻势似乎没有产生什么效果。美国反对该行继续向中等收入国家提供大量资金的做法，并威胁称，除非作出改变，否则美国将拒绝向该行的总体增资计划贡献资金。

There is a debate to be had about exactly what holes in Beijing’s financing the bank needs to fill. But Mr Trump’s objections are almost certainly motivated, at least in part, by the desire to not give money to what he sees as the US’s economic enemy number one. If the bank folds and gives Mr Trump what he wants, its credibility will be badly damaged.

对于中国在资金方面还有什么缺口需要世行来填补，需要展开一场辩论。但是，特朗普的反对立场几乎肯定源自这样一个动机（至少在一定程度上）：不想向他眼里的美国头号经济敌人提供资金。如果世行屈服，让特朗普得偿所愿，该机构的公信力将受到严重损害。

In an odd twist, it is China itself that has represented the biggest threat to the World Bank’s dominance of providing subsidised credit to emerging markets. By 2010, the activities of huge institutions such as the China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank meant that China’s overseas development lending outstripped the World Bank’s for the first time.

吊诡的是，中国本身对世行向新兴市场提供补贴性信贷的主导地位构成最大威胁。早在2010年，中国国家开发银行(China Development Bank)和中国进出口银行(China Export-Import Bank)等庞大机构的活动就意味着，中国提供的海外发展贷款首次超过了世行。

More recently, the advent of institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, of which China is the biggest shareholder, has raised the possibility that the centre of development finance has moved from Washington to Beijing. This puts yet more pressure on Mr Kim to secure US financing.

近年，亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，亚投行）等机构的问世，带来了发展融资的中心已从华盛顿转移到北京的可能性，中国是亚投行的最大股东。这让金墉有更大的压力争取美国资金。

In reality, the shift has been exaggerated. The creation of the AIIB, whose other member governments can block China from making financing decisions, involves placing Chinese money under plurilateral governance, rather than letting it roam the world at Beijing’s whim. The Chinese government has asked the AIIB to help fund the infrastructure projects in its vast Belt and Road initiative. The bank has responded that Belt and Road is a good idea, but that any lending it does will have to be subject to its standards on environmental and human rights safeguards and transparency.

现实地看，这一转移被夸大了。亚投行的创立意味着把中国的资金放在多边治理的框架下（其他成员国政府可以阻止中国做出融资决定），而不是让北京方面随心所欲地把资金投向世界上任何地方。中国政府请求亚投行帮助资助其庞大的“一带一路”倡议下的基建项目。亚投行回应称，“一带一路”是一个好主意，但该行作出的任何放贷，都必须遵守其在环境和人权保障以及透明度方面的标准。

In that context, the World Bank would do better to stick to its guns rather than start contorting itself into peculiar postures in order to please Mr Trump. In any case, official development assistance of all kinds has been supplanted by private lending and investment, and by remittances from overseas migrants. Sheer volume of cash no longer equals policy influence: the bank’s role now stands or falls on the quality of the advice it gives.

在这种情况下，世行的上策应是坚持立场，而不是开始为了让特朗普满意而委曲求全。无论如何，各种官方发展援助都已经被私人贷款和投资以及海外移民的汇款所取代。资金数量本身不再等于政策影响力：世行的角色现在有赖于它给出的建议的质量。

It is hard not to feel for Mr Kim. He may not have been the best candidate for the job, but his position has been made very difficult by Mr Trump’s attitude. Yet he should not allow the institution to be pushed around by the whims of one shareholder. The bank should make its decisions on whom to lend to on the criteria it has painstakingly established, not on the basis of political expediency.

人们很容易同情金墉。他也许不是这个职位的最佳人选，但他的地位被特朗普的态度搞得非常艰难。然而，他不应该让这个机构任由某一个股东心血来潮的念头摆布。该行应该根据其精心确立的标准、而不是政治权宜来作出向谁放贷的决定。