特朗普总统困扰世界精英
The world’s economic elite spent this week invoking fears of protectionism and the existential crisis facing globalisation while avoiding any mention of Donald Trump by name.
世界经济精英本周纷纷提到他们对保护主义、对全球化面临存亡危机的恐惧，同时避免直接提到唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的名字。
But the US presidential candidate and his anti-establishment politics have loomed large at this week’s annual meetings in Washington of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. He has been a sort of Voldemort for the global economic order — like the villain in Harry Potter, his name is spoken only in hushed tones and behind closed doors.
但这位美国总统候选人及其反体制的政见给本周在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)年会蒙上阴影。对全球经济秩序而言，他就像是《哈利波特》(Harry Potter)中的反派伏地魔(Voldemort)——与会者只在非公开场合压低嗓音说出他的名字。
“It is terrifying,” said one senior official of the prospect of a Trump victory in the November 8 election before laying out a scenario in which a President Trump would lead the US into a default on its debts, the collapse of the dollar and US treasuries as haven assets and the tumbling of the global economy into a 1930s-like crisis.
“这是可怕的，”一名高级官员在谈到特朗普在11月8日的美国大选中胜出的前景时表示。这名官员接着描述了这样的情景：特朗普总统领导的美国将在债务上违约，导致美元崩盘，美国国债不再是避风港资产，全球经济急转直下，重演上世纪30年代的大萧条危机。
Mr Trump has raised the possibility of trying to renegotiate the terms of the US sovereign debt much as he did repeatedly with his own business debts as a property developer. He also has proposed imposing punitive tariffs on imports from China and Mexico and ripping up existing US trade pacts.
特朗普曾提出尝试重新谈判美国主权债务条款的可能性，就像他作为房地产开发商多次对自己的商业债务所做的那样。他还提议对来自中国和墨西哥的进口征收惩罚性关税，并撕毁美国现有的贸易协定。
Invoking one of the founding fathers of the international system, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, told the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors that the challenge “lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones”.
IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在对世界各国财长和央行行长发表讲话时，援引国际体系创始人之一约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的话表示，当前的挑战“与其说在于发展新的思想，不如说在于逃离旧的观念”。
“If our founders were here today, they would surely be concerned. They shared a conviction that trade and openness are beneficial to those who embrace them,” she said. “Now, those principles are facing their biggest test in decades.”
“如果我们的创始人今天在这里，他们肯定会担忧。他们共有的一个信念是，贸易和开放造福于拥抱它们的所有人，”她说。“现在，这些原则面临着几十年来最大的考验。”
Mr Trump’s name may not have appeared in the voluminous economic reports published this week, but he was clearly on the authors’ minds.
特朗普的名字也许没有出现在本周发表的大量经济报告中，但他显然让作者们担心。
The IMF labelled political risks and the uncertainty bred by the US election and the UK’s decision to leave the EU and as the biggest immediate concerns facing the global economy.
IMF把美国大选和英国决定退欧所滋生的政治风险和不确定性列为全球经济面临的最大迫切问题。
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the fund included a box outlining the potential costs of raising tariffs and other trade barriers. It read like an attempt to dissuade a presidential aspirant considering a protectionist path.
IMF在其最新《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中列举了提高关税和其他贸易壁垒的潜在代价。其措辞就像是在试图劝阻一名总统候选人考虑保护主义道路。
“Once a tariff has been imposed on a country’s exports, it is in that country’s best interest to retaliate, and when it does, both countries end up worse off,” IMF economists wrote.
“一旦对某个国家的出口实施了关税，对那个国家来说，最佳利益就在于报复，而当它那么做时，两个国家都会得不偿失，”IMF的经济学家们写道。
It is not just angst over Mr Trump. There are similar concerns over Brexit and the rise of populist parties elsewhere in Europe. All present their own threats to the advance of the US-led path of economic liberalisation pursued since Keynes and his peers gathered at Bretton Woods in 1944.
各方并不只对特朗普感到焦虑，对于英国退欧和欧洲其他国家民粹主义政党兴起也有类似的担忧。对于自1944年凯恩斯和其他人在布雷顿森林开会以来由美国领头的经济自由化进程，这一切都构成各自的威胁。
“In my lifetime I cannot remember anything like the scepticism about these values that we see today,” said Suma Chakrabarti, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“在我一生中，我不记得看到过我们当今见到的对这些价值观的怀疑。”欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)总裁苏马•查克拉巴蒂(Suma Chakrabarti)表示。
There was much discussion this week about the underlying causes of that scepticism — low growth, stagnant wages and other scars of the 2008 global financial crisis — together with calls for governments to do more to ensure the benefits of globalisation are distributed more widely.
本周各方围绕这种怀疑的根本原因——低增长、薪资停滞以及2008年全球金融危机造成的其他伤痕——展开了很多讨论，还有代表呼吁各国政府采取更多行动确保全球化的果实得到更广泛的分配。
Lou Jiwei, China’s finance minister, said yesterday the current “political risks” would in the immediate future lead only to “superficial changes” for the global economy.
中国财政部长楼继伟昨日表示，目前的“政治风险”在不久的将来只会导致全球经济出现“表面变化”。
But underlying them was a deeper trend of “deglobalisation”.
他称，在这种表面下隐藏着更深层的“去全球化”趋势。
