美国总统大选 准备好迎接特朗普总统了吗
German magazine Der Spiegel sparked international controversy in February when it published an editorial under the headline “Donald Trump is the world’s most dangerous man”.
今年2月，德国杂志《明镜周刊》(Der Spiegel)发表了一篇题为《唐纳德•特朗普是世界上最危险的人》(Donald Trump is the world’s most dangerous man)的社论，在国际上引发争议。
Within three months of the publication of the article, Mr Trump has defied critics and pundits to become the presumptive Republican candidate in the US presidential election this November.
在文章发表后的3个月内，虽然遭受批评者和评论人士的抨击，但特朗普仍然成为了今年11月美国总统大选的共和党假定被提名人（编者注：据美国媒体5月26日报道，特朗普已获得被党内提名所需的选举人票）。
Most observers — including the global asset management industry — doubted the US billionaire would ever get this far.
大多数观察人士（包括全球资产管理行业）都没有想到这位美国亿万富翁能够走到这一步。
But his unexpected ascent in America’s political hierarchy has raised some difficult questions for many of the world’s largest investors about just how dangerous, or beneficial, he could be for their portfolios.
但是对许多全球最大的投资者而言，特朗普在美国政治体系中的意外崛起，引发了难以解答的问题——他对于他们的投资组合有多么危险，或者有多大益处。
Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund manager, believes Mr Trump is “all but certain” to receive the Republican nomination at the party’s convention in July, now that his two closest rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, have dropped out of the race.
全球最大的债券基金管理公司——太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)认为，既然特朗普的两个最大的竞争对手特德•克鲁斯(Ted Cruz)和约翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)全都退选，那么他“几乎肯定会”在今年7月的共和党全国大会上获得共和党总统候选人提名。
But Libby Cantrill, executive vice-president at the Californian asset manager, believes Mr Trump’s triumph provides few clues to investors about how they should react.
但这家加州资产管理公司的执行副总裁莉比•坎特里尔(Libby Cantrill)表示，特朗普的胜利为投资者的投资策略提供不了什么线索。
“A Trump candidacy does not make it easier for investors to anticipate the possible economic and market implications of a Trump presidency if he were to win the US general election in November,” she says.
她说：“特朗普获得候选人提名并不会让投资者更容易预测，假如特朗普在今年11月赢得大选，可能带来什么经济和市场影响。”
James Clunie, manager of the absolute return fund at Jupiter, the UK-listed asset manager, believes international investors have been woefully slow to consider the ramifications of a Trump victory in November.
英国上市资产管理公司Jupiter的绝对回报基金的经理詹姆斯•克卢尼(James Clunie)认为，国际投资者在考虑特朗普11月赢得大选的影响方面迟缓得可悲。
“A lot of people in the investment community think it is so inconceivable he could become president that [they] are not thinking about hedges. That is, collectively, a big mistake.
“许多投资人士认为他当选总统是不可想象的，因此没有考虑对冲。把他们合在一起来看，这是一个严重的错误。”
“[The US election] should be the talk of the town, but it’s not. Trump is a good wake-up call to stop thinking everything is fine [in the US], as we have done for the past six years. It is a good time to think about fragility in the States.”
“（美国大选）本应是热议的话题，但它现在不是。特朗普是一记很好的警钟，提醒人们不要以为（美国）还像我们过去6年来认为的那样一切都好。现在是时候考虑美国的脆弱了。”
To prepare for the possibility of Mr Trump winning in November, some asset managers are beginning to take a careful look at the potential impact of the controversial policies the US businessman has endorsed so far.
为了应对特朗普今年11月赢得大选的可能性，一些资产管理公司开始认真考虑这位美国商人迄今支持的有争议政策的潜在影响。
These include pursuing a protectionist economic agenda by scrapping the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, and imposing high tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports.
这些政策包括丢弃拟议的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)来实施保护主义经济议程，并对来自中国和墨西哥的进口产品征收高关税。
Mr Trump has also indicated he wants to cut the top rate of corporate income tax from 39 per cent to 15 per cent, but will clamp down on the use of “inversion” deals that allow companies to shift their tax bases overseas.
特朗普还暗示称，他希望将企业所得税最高税率从39%降至15%，但会打击让公司将税基转到海外的“税收倒置”协议。
Both Mr Trump and Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, have pledged to plough money into infrastructure, and to ditch a tax break worth billions of dollars to private equity and hedge fund managers.
特朗普和民主党总统候选人提名领跑者希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)都承诺向基础设施投入大量资金，并取消给私人股本和对冲基金公司的价值数十亿美元的税收优惠。
Some investors highlight healthcare as a sector that could suffer under Mr Trump, who has repeatedly promised to abolish Obamacare, the law that expanded access to care and the biggest medical programme for the poor in the US.
一些投资者强调，如果特朗普当选总统，医疗行业可能遭受影响，因为他多次承诺要废除“奥巴马医改”(Obamacare)。奥巴马医改扩大了医疗服务和美国最大医保计划对穷人的覆盖范围。
Other fund managers suggest shorting container shipping companies to prepare for a Trump presidency, as a break-up of trade agreements and the imposition of trade barriers could hurt trade, or betting against listed hedge funds and private equity firms in anticipation of more stringent taxation.
其他基金公司提议做空集装箱航运公司以应对特朗普当选总统的可能性，因为废除贸易协定和施加贸易壁垒可能伤害贸易；或者做空上市的对冲基金和私人股本公司，因为预计特朗普上台将会推出更为严厉的税法。
Mr Clunie recalls the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum on independence from the rest of the UK, when few financiers were prepared for the possibility of Scotland opting for independence.
克卢尼回忆起2014年苏格兰就是否脱离英国举行公投前的那段时期，当时很少有金融人士为苏格兰可能选择独立做准备。
He took out a short position against Caixabank, the Spanish lender, before the referendum, based on the theory that if Scotland voted to leave the UK, it would increase the likelihood of Catalonia, a wealthy Spanish region with its own language and parliament, becoming independent.
他在公投前建立了对西班牙Caixabank银行的空头仓位，理由是如果苏格兰选择脱离英国，就会增加加泰罗尼亚独立的可能性。加泰罗尼亚是西班牙的一个拥有自己语言和议会的富裕地区。
Although Scotland chose to remain in the UK, the referendum was much closer than pollsters originally anticipated. Mr Clunie believes the US election could yield similar surprises.
尽管最后苏格兰选择留在英国，但公投结果显示支持脱英和支持留英阵营的比例要比民意调查机构最初预计的接近得多。克卢尼相信，美国大选可能同样出人意料。
He has not found another “non-obvious” hedge to prepare his portfolio for a Trump presidency. But he points out other commentators have made the tongue-in-cheek suggestion of buying Canadian residential property on the basis that Americans could “flee” north of the border if Mr Trump wins.
他还没有找到另一种“非明显”对冲策略，使他的投资组合对特朗普当选总统做好准备，但他指出，其他评论人士半开玩笑地提议，鉴于如果特朗普赢得大选，美国人可能“逃往”边境北部，人们应该购买加拿大的房地产。
Other investors point to the many sectors that could flourish under Mr Trump’s leadership, including banking and defence.
还有投资者指出有许多行业可能因特朗普当选总统而繁荣发展，包括银行业和防务业。
Michael Gregory, chief investment officer at Highland Alternative Investors, the Dallas-based asset manager, says: “Less aggressive banking regulation would be a lift for the big banks. Trump sees banks as having a material role in economic growth and lending, and has called for the repeal of Dodd-Frank [the financial regulation legislation].
达拉斯资产管理公司Highland Alternative Investors的首席投资官迈克尔•格雷戈里(Michael Gregory)表示：“银行业监管的激进程度降低将对大银行是个提振。特朗普认为银行在经济增长和放贷中扮演着重要角色，并呼吁废除（金融监管法）《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。”
“We could expect defence and aerospace spending to boom during a Trump presidency as he looks to strengthen the US military. Increased cyber security and intelligence networks will also serve to benefit defence IT and communications.”
“我们可以预计防务和航空航天支出将在特朗普任总统期间出现大幅增长，因为他希望增强美国军力。增强网络安全和情报网络也将让防务IT和通信行业受益。”
Yet most fund managers are reluctant to begin putting hedges in place and fine-tuning portfolios before they have a clearer sense of Mr Trump’s final position on issues such as taxation, infrastructure and healthcare.
然而，大多数基金公司不愿在更清晰地了解到特朗普在税收、基础设施和医疗领域的最终立场之前，开始建立对冲和微调投资组合。
The businessman’s existing policies are widely viewed as inconsistent and contradictory, making it difficult to predict what his ultimate position will be, although some suspect his final stance will be softer than the politician currently implies.
人们普遍认为，特朗普当前的政策反复无常且相互矛盾，这让人们很难预测他最终的立场是什么，尽管一些人怀疑这位政客的最终立场将比他目前显示出的温和。
Martin Moeller, head of equities at UBP, the Swiss private bank, says: “The campaign has focused on the entertaining and ridiculous statements, [but], once elected, there will be less need for media attention and more focus on finding consensus with other politicians to get things done.
瑞士私人银行UBP的股票主管马丁•莫勒(Martin Moeller)表示：“特朗普在选举中致力于发布有趣而荒诞的声明，（但是）一旦当选，吸引媒体关注的必要性就会下降，他会更加致力于找到与其他政客的共识来做成事情。”
“I think President Trump would be more realistic and reasonable than Campaigner Trump.”
“我认为‘总统特朗普’将比‘竞选人特朗普’更加现实和理性。”
Investors are also torn over whether a Trump presidency is so unlikely that it is not worth preparing for or whether it is a viable possibility that warrants careful positioning.
投资者也产生了分歧，一种观点认为特朗普非常不可能当选总统，因此没有必要做准备，另一种观点是特朗普当选总统具有现实可能性，因此有必要认真建立相应头寸。
Political surprises have abounded over the past two years, from the rise of the far-left Syriza party in Greece last year, to the UK Conservative party’s outright win in the 2015 general election. These unexpected developments have delivered painful lessons for investors and politicians alike.
过去两年里发生了太多的政治意外事件，从去年希腊激进左翼联盟(Syriza)的崛起，到英国保守党在2015年大选中大获全胜。这些意外发展给投资者和政客带来了惨痛的教训。
Specifically in terms of the US election, Mr Trump is seen as a unique nominee who has so far broken all conventional rules about what makes a successful presidential candidate. This makes him extremely unpredictable.
具体就美国选举而言，特朗普被视为一名独特的被提名人，迄今打破了关于成功的总统候选人的所有传统规则。这让他完全不可预知。
Sushil Wadhwani, investment manager at GAM, the Swiss fund house, who is a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, says: “Much of the historical work on elections and markets suggests that it is the party that matters.
瑞士基金公司GAM的投资经理苏希尔•瓦德瓦尼(Sushil Wadhwani)表示：“大量关于选举和市场的历史研究表明，最重要的是党派。”瓦德瓦尼曾经担任英国央行(BOE)货币政策委员会委员。
“This time is different. Trump is an unusual candidate as he is not a typical Republican. We might need to rewrite the rules in this case.”
“这次有所不同。特朗普是一个与众不同的候选人，他不是典型的共和党人。我们这一回可能需要改写规则。”
The consensus is that investors should not rule out the possibility of a Trump presidency in 2017.
共识意见是，投资者不应排除特朗普在2017年就任美国总统的可能性。
Over the past two weeks, his odds of winning the election have risen from 21 per cent to 28 per cent, according to Betfair, the gambling website. Mrs Clinton’s odds have fallen over the same period, from 75 per cent to 69 per cent.
博彩网站必发(Betfair)的数据显示，在5月中的两周，他赢得大选的几率从21%升至28%。同期希拉里的胜选几率从75%降至69%。
Steve Dexter, chief investment officer at Copper Rock Capital, a Boston-based asset manager, says: “Trump has repeatedly surprised. The talking heads like to discount his base as just a bunch of disaffected blue-collar rednecks, but in reality the post-election polls have shown that he has drawn significant support from middle- to upper-income college-educated segments of society.
波士顿资产管理公司Copper Rock Capital的首席投资官史蒂夫•德克斯特(Steve Dexter)表示：“特朗普屡次出人意料。评论人士喜欢将他的选民基础贬损为只是一群心怀不满的蓝领工人，但实际上选举后的民调显示，他获得了受过大学教育的中高收入阶层的大力支持。”
“He also draws from both the Republican base and the Democrat. This means he could surprise and I would suggest most [investors] still view him as a long-shot loose cannon.”
“他还获得了共和党基层选民和民主党的支持，这意味着他可能让人大吃一惊，我建议大多数（投资者）还是将他视为一个不容小视的危险人物为好。”
