如果特朗普真的向中国加收关税

Donald Trump has proposed a 45 percent tariff on imports from China, on the theory that this would protect American jobs and promote American business.

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)建议对来自中国的进口产品收取45%的关税，理由是有助于保住美国的工作机会，促进美国商业发展。

What’s more likely, though, is that the new tariffs would set off a cascade of global economic consequences, mostly negative.

然而，更有可能发生的情况是，这一新关税标准会带来一系列大多为负面的全球性经济影响。

Trade between China and the United States — which reached $598 billion in 2015 — has generated large economic benefits for Americans. Manufacturing many goods in China, whether sneakers or smartphones, has kept their prices lower than they would be if made here. That’s been a boon to American consumers, especially those with less money.

中美贸易的规模2015年已达5980亿美元，为美国人带来了巨大的经济利好。不管是运动鞋还是智能手机，企业将很多商品拿到中国生产，使其售价比在美国生产更低。这对美国消费者来说是种福利，尤其是对手上钱比较少的消费者而言。

But more and more, economists are also recognizing a downside to free trade. Competition from China and other low-wage emerging economies has severely hurt some American workers. One study figures that the United States lost at least two million jobs between 1999 and 2011 because of Chinese imports. To many people, Mr. Trump’s solution may seem to make sense: Restrict those imports, save jobs and support American business.

不过，经济学家们也日渐认识到自由贸易的负面影响。来自中国等低人工成本的新兴经济体的竞争，严重影响了一些美国劳动者的生计。据一项研究统计，因中国进口商品影响，美国在1999至2011年间至少损失了200万个就业机会。在不少人看来，特朗普提出的解决之道似乎有道理：限制这些进口产品，保住工作机会，支持美国企业。

But if there were a 45 percent tariff on Chinese goods, at least part of that would probably be passed onto consumers in the form of higher prices. Americans would end up buying fewer Chinese things, and fewer things from anywhere else.

不过，如果对中国商品收取45%的关税，其中至少有部分会通过更高的物价转嫁到消费者身上。结果是，美国人会购买更少的中国商品，同时也购买更少的其他商品。

Shrinking sales of Chinese products would generally hurt American businesses and workers. A product labeled “Made in China” is not necessarily 100 percent Chinese, since many goods are assembled in China with parts from the United States and elsewhere. Sluggish purchases of these so-called Chinese products would reduce the sales of their American components, too.

中国产品销售萎缩，会在整体上给美国企业和劳动者带来伤害。打着“中国制造”标签的商品不见得都是中国的，因为也有许多产品是用来自美国和其他国家的零部件在中国组装而成。所谓的“中国产品”销售疲软，也会减少美国零部件的销售。

For this reason and others, quite a lot of the money spent on Chinese goods actually ends up in the wallets of Americans. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco figured that 55 cents of every $1 spent by an American shopper on a “Made in China” product goes to the Americans selling, transporting and marketing that product. Suppressing Chinese imports would harm shopkeepers and truck drivers.

正是由于这样的原因，花在中国商品上的大量资金最后实际上是进了美国人的腰包。旧金山联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的一项研究发现，美国消费者在“中国制造”的商品上花费的每一美元，都有55%落到了销售、运输和为这种产品做推广的美国人手中。限制中国进口商品，将会损害美国店主和卡车司机的利益。

In fact, making Chinese-made goods more expensive would ripple through American shopping malls. An extra $20 for, say, children’s clothing from China is $20 not spent on a new baseball glove for a child, or a birthday gift for a grandmother. A tariff on China would dent the sales of all kinds of products, even those made in the United States.

事实上，中国制造的商品价格上涨带来的影响，还会波及美国各大购物中心。比如，为一件来自中国的童装多花20美元，可能会导致一个美国家庭为孩子少买一副新的棒球手套，或为祖母少买一件生日礼物。对中国增收关税，会影响各种产品的销售，包括在美国生产的那些。

It seems likely that such a tariff would burden American consumers while doing little to create jobs for them. Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, studying the impact of a 35 percent tariff imposed on Chinese tire imports by Washington in 2009, found that American consumers had to spend an extra $1.1 billion on tires, while the tariff protected no more than 1,200 jobs. About $900,000 for every job saved, in other words.

而且这项关税在给美国消费者带来负担的同时，似乎也不会对创造工作机会产生太大助益。针对华盛顿在2009年对中国轮胎产品收取35%关税这一决策所产生的影响，彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的加里·克莱德·赫夫鲍尔(Gary Clyde Hufbauer)和肖恩·劳里(Sean Lowry)曾做过一项研究，结果发现美国消费者不得不为此在购买轮胎上多花11亿美元，与此同时这项关税却只保住了不超过1200个工作岗位。换句话说，我们为这每个工作岗位付出的代价大约为90万美元。

A big tariff would also harm China. Depressing its exports to the United States would deal another blow to an economy already enduring its worst slowdown in 25 years. In the longer term, increasing the cost of doing business in China would probably prompt manufacturers of basic consumer items to consider moving out of China.

收取高额关税也会损害中国的利益。抑制中国对美出口，会让一个本就遭遇25年来最严重的增速放缓的经济体雪上加霜。从长远看，在中国做生意的成本增加，可能会促使基本消费品的生产商考虑将生产线撤离中国。

That process is already underway. As the Chinese economy has advanced, wages of its workers have risen. A recent survey by the Japan External Trade Organization found that a Chinese factory worker earns $424 a month — the highest salary in developing Asia. That has caused many companies producing labor-intensive goods, like clothing or electronics, to shift factories from China to other countries or to diversify their sources of supply to keep costs down.

这个过程已经开始了。随着中国经济水平提高，劳动者工资也不断上涨。日本贸易振兴机构(Japan External Trade Organization)最近的一项调查显示，中国工厂员工的人均工资达到了每月424美元（约合2740元人民币），在亚洲的发展中国家里是最高的。这导致生产服装、电子元件等劳动密集型产品的企业，将工厂从中国转到了其他国家，或使其供货来源多样化，以继续保持低廉的生产成本。

Though higher costs in China might prompt some companies to move production back to the United States, a more plausible destination would be other emerging economies with lower costs. A factory worker earns, on average, $230 a month in India, $185 in Vietnam and $100 in Bangladesh, according to the Japanese survey.

尽管中国的生产成本增加，有可能会促使一些企业将其生产环节移回美国，但它们还有一个更合理的选择，即将生产转移到成本更低的其他新兴国家。上述日本机构的调查数据显示，印度工厂员工的平均工资是每月230美元，越南是185美元，在孟加拉国则是100美元。

Foxconn, the Taiwan-based company that assembles iPhones in China for Apple, announced last year that it would build as many as 12 new factories in India. That means your next smartphone or pair or bluejeans would more likely be made in Mumbai than in Minneapolis.

富士康是一家台湾企业，在中国大陆为苹果公司组装iPhone。该公司去年宣布将在印度新建至多12座工厂。这意味着你的下一部智能手机或者下一条牛仔裤很有可能不是在明尼阿波利斯生产的，而是在孟买。

And the Chinese government’s response would probably be tariffs of its own on American goods and services rather than lowering barriers for American companies doing business in China. It moved quickly to retaliate for the tariff on Chinese tires with punitive duties on American products. Because the Chinese market has become critical for many American companies — whether Apple, Starbucks or Boeing — any steps taken by the Chinese government to curtail their ability to operate in China would be bad news for them.

中国政府的反应很可能不是降低美国公司在中国开展业务的障碍，而是对美国商品和服务征收关税。中国轮胎被征收的时候，它就迅速采取行动，对美国产品征收惩罚性关税。由于中国逐渐成为很多美国企业——无论是苹果、星巴克，还是波音——的关键市场，中国政府采取的任何削弱它们在中国的运营能力的措施，对它们而言都是坏消息。

Mr. Trump’s tariff proposal addresses a real and legitimate concern about the effect of competition from low-wage countries on American workers. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to solve the problem — and it could create even more.

低工资国家确实给美国劳动者带来了竞争压力，特朗普关税提议针对的这个关注点是真实的、正当的。但是，这并不意味着这项建议可以解决问题——它反而有可能带来更多问题。