特朗普对意识形态不感兴趣
Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, took some wild questions at a town-hall meeting in New Hampshire on Thursday. One woman objected to the wearing of hijabs (which she called “heebie-jobbies”) by airport security officials and wondered if military veterans could be found to replace them. Mr Trump promised to look into it. He thereby conveyed the core principle of his campaign: there is no subject so controversial or off the radar that he will not speak his mind about it. That is what makes his rallies so interesting and, for his audiences, thrilling.
不久前，美国共和党推定总统候选人唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在新罕布什尔州一个市政厅的集会上回答了几个疯狂的问题。一名女士反对机场的运输安全管理局(TSA)官员戴“希贾布”（hijab，穆斯林妇女戴的头巾——译者注；提问的女士还把这个词说成了“heebie-jobbies”），并且想知道是否能找些退伍军人替代她们。特朗普承诺研究此事。他由此传达了其竞选的核心原则：从不因话题争议太大或过于冷门而保留自己的观点。这使得他的竞选集会非常有趣，同时对于他的受众来说，非常令人兴奋。
They thrill Republican leaders less — especially when Mr Trump vents his unorthodoxy on the “values” that once brought Christian voters to the polls in droves. Last week the US Supreme Court intervened to void certain Texas laws restricting access to abortion. This sort of judicial meddling has always been oratorical catnip for Republican candidates. Mr Trump said nothing. He was still busy talking, weeks after a mass murder at a gay nightclub in Florida, about what a terrific friend he would be to gays and lesbians.
这些集会对共和党领袖来说没则那么令人兴奋，特别是当特朗普将他的离经叛道用到共和党的传统“价值观”上时——这些价值观曾吸引大批基督教选民投票支持共和党。不久前，美国最高法院(Supreme Court)介入，宣布德州限制堕胎的法律无效。共和党候选人总会拿此类司法干预大做文章。但特朗普什么也没说。在佛罗里达州一家同性恋夜店枪击案发生数周后，他仍在忙着谈论他会是同性恋多么好的朋友。
Mr Trump is looking like one of those cosmopolitan New York politicians who travel badly — former mayor Rudolph Giuliani, for instance, who was the Republican frontrunner in 2008 until voters nationwide got acquainted with his tolerant, big-city ways. But Mr Trump adds a canny understanding of how the broader electorate has drifted away from his party’s preoccupations.
特朗普看起来就像那些一出本地就不吃香了的纽约大都会政客，比如纽约前市长鲁道夫•朱利安尼(Rudolph Giuliani)。2008年，朱利安尼一度是领先的共和党候选人，直到全美国的选民了解到他宽容的大城市人做派。但是特朗普又多了几分精明——他知道大部分选民已经不再关心那些共和党全心关注的问题。
Abortion is an organisational pillar for both parties. For Republicans Roe vs Wade, the 1973 case that legalised abortion, was long a powerful symbol of judicial over-reach. To invoke it was to connect with activists upset by the Supreme Court’s role in other cases, from workplace safety to civil rights. This fostered an optical illusion. Certain candidates grew unable to tell the party apparatus from the broader public. They believed Republicans could prosper by throwing the public more red meat. Ted Cruz, Mr Trump’s primary-season rival, was especially deluded on this score.
美国两党都把堕胎问题作为本党的组织支柱。共和党长久以来一直认为，1973年促使堕胎合法化的罗诉韦德案(Roe vs Wade)是司法越权的有力标志。援引此事就是在拉拢其他不满于最高法院在其他案件（从工作场所安全到民权案件）中角色的活动人士。这强化了一种视觉错觉。某些候选人渐渐无法把党组织与整体公众区分开。他们认为，共和党可以通过给公众更多合他们胃口的东西而蓬勃发展。在这一点上，特朗普初选时的竞争对手特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)的错觉尤其严重。
Of course, respect must be paid. Mr Trump has hired anti-abortion staffers and drawn up a list of potential Supreme Court justices acceptable to them. In March Chris Matthews, the MSNBC host, got Mr Trump to agree (after four minutes of badgering) that, if Republicans really did plan to make it a crime to seek an abortion, then clearly this crime must have consequences for women who sought it. This was a novice’s blunder. Mr Trump erred on the side of candour and intellectual curiosity, two things a politician must never show. He had to renounce his remarks and paid for them with a heavy loss in the Wisconsin primary. Yet the episode showed him as someone who will not don a party line like a suit of clothes. He may benefit in the long run from not having thought through abortion.
当然，面子上还是要过得去的。特朗普聘请了反堕胎人士，并列出了一张他们认可的拟任命最高法院法官名单。3月，微软全国广播公司(MSNBC)主持人克里斯•马修斯(Chris Matthews)（在纠缠了4分钟后）使特朗普同意，如果共和党确实计划使堕胎成为犯罪行为，那么犯下这一罪行的女性显然必须承担后果。这是菜鸟级错误。特朗普过于坦率和富有求知欲了，这两样东西是政客绝不能表现出来的。后来，他不得不收回自己的言论，并为这些言论付出了沉重代价——在威斯康辛州初选中惨败。不过，这段插曲表明，他是那种不会时刻把本党的统一口径放在心上的人。从长远来看，没有仔细地思考过堕胎问题或许会使他受益。
Unusually for a Republican, Mr Trump has thought through gay rights. He likes them. In 2000 he urged that sexual orientation be added to the US anti-discrimination laws. He sees sexual liberation as the highest form of western freedom. In this he resembles Geert Wilders of the Freedom party in the Netherlands. The status of homosexuality as the bogeyman of Islamism appears a reason to favour it.
特朗普倒是仔细思考过同性恋权益——这在共和党人中并不常见。他支持同性恋权益。2000年，他敦促将性取向加入美国反歧视法中。他把性自由视为西方自由的最高形式。在这方面，他与荷兰自由党(Freedom Party)的海尔特•维尔德斯(Geert Wilders)类似。同性恋被伊斯兰教视为魔鬼，这似乎是支持同性恋的理由之一。
You could see this when Omar Mateen, an Afghan-American, murdered 49 people last month at the Florida nightclub. Mr Trump viewed it as a chance to vindicate his calls for restrictions on Muslim immigration — a narrative that was complicated when it emerged Mateen’s feelings about his own sexuality may have had as much to do with the carnage as his readings of the Koran or opinions about Isis.
你可以从上个月发生在佛罗里达州一家夜店内的枪击事件中看出这一点，当时阿富汗裔美国公民奥马尔•马丁(Omar Mateen)杀害了49人。特朗普把这视为一次印证他呼吁限制穆斯林移民的正确性的机会。然而，后来人们得知，和阅读《古兰经》(Koran)、对“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的态度一样，马丁对自己性取向的感受同样是导致杀戮行为的重要原因。这让特朗普的论证不那么站得住脚了。
“Ask yourself,” said Mr Trump at a June talk, “who is really the friend of women and the LGBT community: Donald Trump with his actions, or Hillary Clinton with her words? I will tell you who the better friend is, and someday I believe that will be proven out. Bigly.”
“你们扪心自问，”特朗普在6月的演讲中称，“谁真正是女性和LGBT群体（女同性恋者、男同性恋者、双性恋者与跨性别者）的朋友？是有实际行动的唐纳德•特朗普、还是光说不练的希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)？我会告诉你谁才是更好的朋友，我相信有一天事实会以令人无可辩驳的方式，证明这个答案的正确。”
Does Mr Trump believe what he says? The safest answer is: he believes it as much as any politician does. He is soft-pedalling the traditional culture-wars rhetoric not because it does not convince him, but because it does not interest him. The Trump movement is about sociology — not ideology. It is about reassuring globalisation’s losers that politicians have not forgotten them — not about crafting elegant syllogisms. In western countries globalisation produces losers faster than winners, Mr Trump thinks, so democracy will eventually vindicate his side. Any issue that highlights the gap between grandees and commoners helps his cause. Any issue that distracts is to be avoided.
特朗普相信他所说的话吗？最保险的答案是：任何一名政客有多相信自己所说的话，特朗普也一样。他没有卖力地参与传统的文化战争，不是因为不相信相关言论，而是因为他不感兴趣。特朗普的竞选围绕的是社会学，而不是意识形态；是让全球化的输家放心——政客并未忘记他们，而不是编制精巧的三段论。特朗普认为，全球化在西方国家制造输家的速度要快于它制造赢家的速度，因此民主最终将站在他这边。任何凸显权贵与平民之间差距的问题，都有助于他的事业。任何分散注意力的问题都要回避。
In this, as in other things, nothing is more distracting than sex.
在这方面，如同在其他领域一样，没有什么比性取向和性别更能分散注意力的了。
