强势美元 特朗普和耶伦的相同难题

Where there was discord, Donald Trump has remarkably brought harmony.

哪里有不和谐之处，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)便引人注目地带来了和谐。

He has brought peace between the markets and Janet Yellen, as traders at last appear to believe her forecast for interest rates over the next year.

他让市场和珍妮特.耶伦(Janet Yellen)之间实现了和平，交易员们最终似乎相信了她对明年利率动作的预测。

The Federal Reserve says it intends to raise rates three times next year, and the market implicitly, through Fed funds futures, puts the chance of this happening at almost exactly 50 per cent.

美联储(Fed)表示其明年将加息三次，而市场通过联邦基金利率期货暗示，其发生几率几乎正好是50%。

This follows five years of the Fed’s current attempt at transparency in which markets have persistently and successfully bet that rates will stay stuck near zero, whatever Ms Yellen may tell them.

此前5年里，美联储一直试图增加透明度，而市场一直、而且正确地押注利率将维持在接近零的水平，无论耶伦可能怎么表态。

It is the sharp change in psychology that came with Mr Trump’s election victory that has at last brought the rate markets and the central bank in tune with each other.

特朗普在选举中获胜带来的心理巨变，最终导致利率市场和美联储达成了一致。

The problem is that the newfound belief in a hawkish Fed scares the bond and foreign exchange markets rigid.

问题在于，这种新萌发的对于美联储保持鹰派立场的信心，吓坏了债市和汇市。

Ms Yellen perhaps inadvertently fed this in her press conference by commenting that fiscal policy was not really needed now — a very direct contradiction to the stance of the new administration.

在新闻发布会上，耶伦也许在无意中助长了这一情绪，她评论道，目前并不真的需要财政政策——这与新政府的立场直接抵触。

The strong language she used about the strength of the US economy and labour market also gave the impression that she was prepared to be even more hawkish in future.

她使用强烈措辞表述美国经济和劳动力市场的强劲程度，也给人留下了她准备在未来表现得更加鹰派的印象。

The reaction to Ms Yellen’s press conference was almost certainly exaggerated and greater than she wanted, and some attempt by the Fed to talk traders back from the precipice over the next few days is likely.

耶伦新闻发布会引起的反应几乎肯定比她希望的更夸张、更巨大，未来几天里，美联储很可能尝试通过调整表态把交易员从悬崖边上拉回来。

But the market reaction does indicate that the fixed income market is indeed prone to an overdramatic sell-off.

但市场反应的确预示着，固定收益市场真的可能遭遇过分戏剧化的抛售。

Fears of this were not overdone, and this is unwelcome news.

对此局面的担心并不过分，而这不是个好消息。

For the time being, Ms Yellen’s undiplomatic efforts will render her unpopular with Mr Trump.

就目前而言，耶伦的不圆滑做法将令她不受特朗普待见。

The consolation may be that they now find themselves facing the same serious and urgent problem; dollar strength.

或许让她感到安慰的是，他们两人如今面临同一个严峻、紧迫的问题：强势美元。

By the end of Wednesday’s hectic trading, the dollar had hit its highest on a trade-weighted basis since early 2003, before the invasion of Iraq.

到周三繁忙的交易结束时，美元贸易加权汇率冲上自2003年初——即入侵伊拉克之前——以来的最高点。

The economic and financial logic is ineffable.

其中的经济与金融逻辑是难以形容的。

If the US is genuinely going to reflate, then interest rates will need to rise.

如果美国真的打算再通胀，那么利息将需要调高。

That will attract funds to the dollar, particularly from economies like Japan and Germany where rates are still on the floor.

那将吸引资金、尤其是来自日本和德国等利率仍非常低的经济体的资金买入美元。

Yield differentials are now extreme.

目前，利率差已达到极端水平。

The spread of 10-year Treasury yields over equivalent German Bunds is now its widest since the spring of 1989, before German reunification.

美国10年期国债收益率与德国10年期国债的差距如今达到自1989年春天——当时德国尚未统一——以来的最大水平。

This should be helpful for Japan and Germany, export-oriented economies.

对于出口导向经济体日本和德国而言，这应是有益的。

It is extremely unhelpful for China, still tied to the dollar, and for many emerging markets, where dollar strength — as shown during 2013’s taper tantrum — can easily translate into crisis conditions.

但对于仍与美元挂钩的中国以及许多新兴经济体，这是极其无益的；正如2013年的缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)所显示的那样，强势美元在这些经济体可能很容易引发危机。

It is unhelpful for Ms Yellen, as a strong dollar tamps down inflation, through its effect on import prices, as well as growth.

这对耶伦是无益的，因为强势美元会通过其对进口价格的影响而抑制通胀，并削弱增长。

It is also deeply unhelpful to Mr Trump.

这对特朗普也是极其无益的。

His signature aim is to restore US manufacturing and to defend the country’s trade position.

他的标志性目标是恢复美国制造业元气，并捍卫美国的贸易地位。

A dollar this strong has much the same effect as an array of protective tariffs against US goods.

如此强势的美元，在很大程度上跟对美国产品征收大量保护性关税具有相同的效果。

Further, the Fed’s intended rate trajectory is based on GDP growth that will barely exceed 2 per cent over the next four years.

此外，美联储希望实现的利率轨迹的假设是，未来4年国内生产总值(GDP)增长勉强超过2%。

Mr Trump’s clear commitment is to try to get growth up to 3.5 per cent.

特朗普的明确承诺是努力使GDP增速达到3.5%。

Fiscal policy generous enough to propel growth that strong would likely entail higher rates, and an even stronger dollar.

如果财政政策足够慷慨、能把增长率推高至那种水平，那将意味着更高的利率，以及更强势的美元。

The alternative would be an irresponsible Fed that was prepared to run the risk of allowing inflation to take off once more.

替代选择将是美联储不负责任，准备承担让通胀再度飙升的风险。

Ultimately, the quandary for Mr Trump and Ms Yellen is identical and uncomfortable.

归根结底，特朗普和耶伦的困境是相同的、令人不安的。

There are limits to how much globalisation can be peeled back.

全球化的倒退程度是存在极限的。

Financial markets in a global setting put limits on how far the US can restimulate its own economy.

全球背景的金融市场，为美国能在何种程度上重新刺激本国经济设定了极限。