特朗普的地位相当强大

America’s most recent election is best recollected in “final straw” moments. Whether Donald Trump was scorning the Muslim parents of a slain soldier, accusing a female anchor of menstrual bias, or goading fans to beat up protesters, his obituary was written weekly.

美国最近一次大选最能让人回忆起的是“最后一根稻草”的时刻。无论是唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)怠慢阵亡军人的穆斯林父母，批评一名女主持人因为来月经而有偏见，或者是煽动支持者痛打抗议者，每周都有人撰文预测他不可能当选。

The same applies to his presidency. Last week, Mr Trump supposedly plumbed new depths by describing Haiti and Africa as “shitholes”. We forget that he launched the campaign by branding Mexicans as rapists. Now, we are told, he has really gone and done it. Except that he has done it so many times before. We are blinded by our outrage. In reality, Mr Trump’s position has rarely been stronger.

这也适用于他的总统任期。上周，据说特朗普在放肆程度上更进一步，把海地和非洲称为“粪坑”。我们忘记了，他在投入竞选时曾把墨西哥人称为强奸犯。如今，我们被告知，他真的这么做了。只是他以前做过很多次。我们被愤怒蒙蔽了双眼。在现实中，特朗普的地位几乎从未像现在这样强大。

Later this month, he marks his first year with his State of the Union address. It will be tempting to see it as another way station on Mr Trump’s road to oblivion. No president has finished his first year with such low approval ratings. Come to think of it, none had such poor numbers after three months, six months, at Thanksgiving and so on. Mr Trump just keeps scraping new lows.

本月晚些时候，他将在上任一周年之际发表《国情咨文》(State of the Union)演讲。诱惑在于，人们很容易把这视为特朗普走向毁灭之路的又一站。从来没有一位美国总统在上任一年后的支持率如此之低。既然说到这个话题，没有一个总统在上任3个月后、6个月后、在感恩节等等的时刻人气如此之低。特朗普的支持率不断创出新低。

In reality, though, his numbers have not moved. Mr Trump lost about 10 points within his first month in office. His ratings have been hovering at between 35 and 40 per cent ever since. Which of these stories tells us more? The historic lows or the fact that Mr Trump has lost little support in the past 11 months?

在现实中，他的支持率数字变化不大。特朗普在上任头一个月的支持率下降了大约10点。此后，他的支持率一直徘徊在35%至40%之间。哪个故事更说明问题？是历史新低还是特朗普在过去11个月基本上没有失去更多支持？

We should pay equal attention to the latter. Philosophers teach us to sift reality from desire — the “is/ought” distinction.

我们应同样重视后一个。哲学家教育我们要从愿望中筛选出现实，把握好“现实/愿望”之间的区别。

The fact that Mr Trump so deserves his comeuppance too often spills into forecasts of his demise. If we switch to the “is” lens for a moment, the picture looks troublingly different. The president now has a near total grip on the Republican party. Both wings — the “moderates”, on one side, and the pyrotechnicists, once led by the outcast Steve Bannon, on the other — have fallen into line.

特朗普理应得到报应的事实，经常波及到对他倒台的预测。如果我们暂且切换到“现实”的透镜，画面令人不安地有些不同。美国总统现在几乎完全控制了共和党。两翼（一边是“温和派”，一边是曾由被驱逐的史蒂夫?班农(Steve Bannon)领导的唇枪舌战派）均已变得听话。

A few weeks ago, disaffected Republicans, such as Bob Corker, the Tennessee senator, were vowing a brave stand against Mr Trump. The White House was “an adult day care centre”, said Mr Corker. Mr Trump could trigger “world war three”. But when it came to a vote on the $1.5tn tax bill last month, -Republicans such as Mr Corker rallied round. Whatever growth results from the -corporate tax cut will be Mr Trump’s to brandish. This week, Zogby Analytics gave him a 46 per cent approval rating.

几周前，心怀不满的共和党人誓言要勇敢对抗特朗普，例如田纳西州参议员鲍勃?科克(Bob Corker)，他表示，白宫成了一个“成人日托中心”；特朗普可能引发“第三次世界大战”。但在上月就1.5万亿美元税改法案举行投票时，科克等共和党人都站在同一立场。不管降低企业税率会给经济增长带来什么效果，都将是特朗普可以往自己身上揽的功劳。本周，Zogby Analytics的调查显示，特朗普的支持率达到46%。

In reality, the stimulus will be shortlived, skew to the wealthiest and accelerate the interest rate cycle. But polls measure how people feel now.

在现实中，减税带来的刺激将是短暂的，偏向最富有人群，并将加快利率周期。但民调衡量人们当下的感受。

Last week, Mr Corker travelled with Mr Trump on Air Force One. Suddenly, they were buddies again. The same goes for all but a couple of his peers. If Mr Trump were a marsupial, the Republican party would be in his pouch. We should not expect them to act as a check on his power. People are now looking elsewhere.

上周，科克陪同特朗普乘坐“空军一号”出访。突然间，他们又成了哥们。除了两、三个人外，他的同僚都表现出同样的态度。如果说特朗普是有袋类动物，那么共和党就在他的育儿袋里。我们不应该指望他们来制衡他的权力。如今人们正在寻找其他制衡力量。

The latest hopes are projected on to Mitt Romney, the former presidential nominee, who is planning a Senate run. He will speak truth to power, we are told. During the 2016 election Mr Romney called Mr Trump a “fraud” and a “phoney”. Once he has arrived in the Senate, Mr Romney will be the one who stands up and says: “Have you no shame, sir?” Someone has to say it, right? Alas, pretty much everyone has been saying it everyday — but to no effect, since Mr Trump has none. Besides, Mr Romney auditioned unsuccessfully to be Mr Trump’s secretary of state. There is no reason to suppose he will be any less of a weathervane than Mr Corker.

人们最近把希望的目光投向了前总统候选人米特?罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)，他正计划竞选参议员。据说，他会向当权者说实话。在2016年选举期间，罗姆尼曾称特朗普是“骗子”。一旦他进入参议院，罗姆尼将站起来说道：“你不觉得羞耻吗，先生？”总得有人说这话，对吧？唉，几乎所有人每天都这么说——但是没有效果，因为特朗普就是没有羞耻心。此外，罗姆尼曾被考虑担任特朗普的国务卿，但落选了。没有理由认为他能比科克强到哪里去。

What about the Democrats? They have placed their chips on Robert -Mueller, the special counsel. Mr Trump’s second year is as likely to be as badly disrupted by the Russia investigation as his first. Bigger scalps, including Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, and Donald Trump Jr, are likely. The chances are that Mr Mueller will land a damning report on Capitol Hill at about the time Democrats are likely to regain control of Congress.

民主党怎么样？他们把筹码放在了特别检察官罗伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)身上。特朗普就职的第二年可能会像第一年一样被“通俄案”调查严重打乱。调查可能会扳倒更高层的人物，包括他的女婿贾里德?库什纳(Jared Kushner)和小唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump Jr)。米勒可能将向国会提交一份破坏力巨大的报告，而那时可能适逢民主党夺回国会控制权。

But there are two wrinkles to the Trump impeachment story. First, Democrats will need a lot of Republicans to co-operate. There is little chance of that. Indeed, Republicans and the Fox News-led “conservative entertainment complex” are doing their best to discredit Mr Mueller.

但特朗普遭到弹劾的故事有两个漏洞。第一，民主党将需要共和党通力合作。这几乎没有可能。的确，共和党和以福克斯新闻(Fox News)为首的“保守阵营娱乐综合体”正在竭尽全力地破坏米勒的声誉。

Second, Mr Trump has a knack of inciting liberals to stereotype themselves. The more Democrats invest in the Trump outrage machine, the less they put into a case for governing.

第二，特朗普擅长于刺激自由派人士把自己“脸谱化”。民主党人越是深陷对特朗普的愤慨，成天想着要把他赶下台，就越难以拿出自己的治国方略。

Unlike winning campaign themes, which are hard to come by, outrageous Trumpisms grow on trees. America’s president has an unlimited supply of them. He ought not to be president. Yet he is. Will Democrats grasp the difference in year two?

与振奋人心的竞选主题不同（这些很难获得），特朗普的离谱言论要多少有多少。美国总统有源源不断的离谱言论。他不应该当选总统。然而他现在是总统。在他主政的第二年，民主党人会把握其中的不同吗？