党代会暴露特朗普的缺陷

The main role of a presidential convention nowadays is to introduce the nominee to the US public. Donald Trump needs no introduction. With the exception of Ronald Reagan, who had been familiar to television viewers for decades, no previous nominee could match the reality TV star’s name recognition. The other goal is to ensure the public likes what it sees. Does Mr Trump possess the temperament to sit atop America’s nuclear chain of command? Does he have the character to unify a polarised nation? On both counts Mr Trump has yet to quell the doubts he generated in an unusually vicious primary campaign. It was one thing to launch a successful hostile takeover of America’s Grand Old Party. It is quite another to persuade the general electorate he has the ability to lead the nation. So far Mr Trump has shown few signs of grasping the enormousness of that challenge.

美国政党全国提名代表大会的主要作用是向美国民众介绍本党提名的总统候选人。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)不需要介绍。除了电视观众熟悉了几十年的罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)以外，之前没有哪位候选人可以匹敌这位真人秀明星的知名度。党代会的另一个目的是确保公众喜欢他们所看到的。特朗普的脾气能够担当美国核指挥链的最高指挥官吗？他具有将这个两极分化的国家团结到一起的品质吗？在这两方面，特朗普都尚未平息他在异常激烈的初选竞选中招来的疑虑。对美国共和党发起一场成功的“恶意收购”是一回事，说服全美选民他有能力领导这个国家则完全是另一回事。迄今为止，特朗普未表现出多少迹象，证明他理解这项挑战的艰巨性。

Running a campaign is also a test of competence. Mr Trump was able to wing it through the primaries with little more than a Twitter account and his personal jet. But his threadbare operation has been exposed under the Klieg lights of a national convention. Melania Trump, the prospective first lady, derailed the show on the first night when she was caught plagiarising paragraphs from Michelle Obama’s 2008 convention speech. Even the most basic software test would have revealed the blunder. Her miscue followed noisy floor protests from “Never Trump” forces that Mr Trump’s team unwisely tried to silence. The second night was little better. Billed as “Make America work again”, few of the Speakers even mentioned the US economy. Instead, Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, dominated the second day’s prime time with an invective-laden speech on Hillary Clinton’s alleged criminality. “Guilty!” roared the delegates at Mr Christie’s invitation. “Lock her up,” it chanted. Such demagoguery is unlikely to capture the middle ground.

竞选运作也是对能力的考验。特朗普能够仅仅凭借Twitter账户及其私人喷气式飞机顺利通过初选。但是他残破的竞选运作已经暴露在全国代表大会的强光下。有望成为未来第一夫人的梅拉尼娅•特朗普(Melania Trump)第一晚亮相便掉了链子，被发现部分演讲段落抄袭了米歇尔•奥巴马(Michelle Obama)在2008年民主党全国代表大会上的演讲。只需最基本的软件测试就能发现这一错误。在她犯错前，来自“永远不要特朗普”(Never Trump)运动的一群人在现场吵闹地抗议，而特朗普的团队不明智地试图使其安静。党代会第二晚也没有好到哪去。尽管这一晚的主题是“让美国再次扩大就业(Make America work again)”，但是几乎没有哪位发言人提到美国经济。相反，新泽西州长克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)就希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的所谓罪行展开的充满谩骂的演讲，占据了第二天的黄金时间。“有罪！”克里斯蒂请来的代表们咆哮着；“把她关押起来，”他们反复高喊着。这样的煽动行为不太可能争取到中间选民的支持。

Then there is the goal of unifying the party. Mr Trump was never likely to persuade George HW Bush, or George W Bush, to appear at his coronation. He had disparaged the Bush family too much on his path to victory. However, he has made little obvious effort to befriend the few big names he did persuade to turn up in Cleveland. Chief among these was Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, whose endorsement of Mr Trump was a case study of damning with faint praise. Mr Ryan only mentioned Mr Trump’s name twice in his keynote address, the chief thrust of which was to urge Republicans to treat every American with respect, regardless of colour, religion or class. The ostensible target of Mr Ryan’s message was the Democratic party; nobody who heard it could have misunderstood that his words were aimed squarely at Mr Trump. If the latter was listening, he should take Mr Ryan’s advice at face value. Primaries are won at the extremes. General elections are still fought in the middle. It will be almost impossible for Mr Trump to win the White House on the strength of angry white voters alone.

接着还有团结共和党的目标。特朗普根本没有可能劝服老布什(George HW Bush)或者小布什(George W Bush)出席他的“加冕”仪式。一路走来，他对布什家族诋毁得太厉害了。然而，他也没有做出什么明显的努力去亲善那几位被他劝服在克利夫兰露面的重要人物。其中包括众议院议长保罗•瑞安(Paul Ryan)，他对特朗普的背书构成一个明褒暗贬的经典案例。瑞安在他的主旨讲话中仅两次提到特朗普的名字，讲话的主旨是敦促共和党人尊重每名美国人，不管对方是什么肤色、信奉何种宗教或属于哪个阶层。瑞安这番讲话表面上是针对民主党，然而所有听者都不可能误解，其实他的话恰恰是针对特朗普的。如果特朗普当时也在听瑞安讲话，他应该对瑞安的建议照单全收。特朗普凭借走极端赢得了初选。大选的战场仍然在中间地带。特朗普若想仅仅依靠愤怒的白人选民的力量入主白宫，几乎是不可能的。

The next few days will be critical. On Thursday night Mr Trump will address the nation when he accepts the nomination. The temptation will be to stick with the formula that has worked. That would be a mistake. Mr Trump is certainly fortunate in his opponent. So too is Mrs Clinton. The 2016 election is unique in that each party’s nominee is mistrusted by a majority of the US electorate. No one has ever made it to the White House with negative trust numbers. The way to earn the public’s faith is to convince doubters you have a competent plan to govern. Now would be a good time for Mr Trump to start.

未来几天将十分关键。周四晚，特朗普接受共和党正式提名时，将对全国民众发表讲话。他将很想继续使用原来管用的方法——那将铸成错误。当然，有希拉里做对手，特朗普是幸运的；反过来也一样。2016年美国大选的独特之处，在于每个政党的候选人都得不到大多数美国选民的信任。从未有人在不信任比例超过一半的情况下问鼎白宫。赢得公众信任的途径，在于让怀疑者相信，你有一份出色的治理方案。特朗普眼下最好开始朝这个方向努力。