共和党初选引人注目 特朗普的提名之路

The crowning moment of this year’s remarkable Republican race was not expected to occur in Indiana. In fact, it was never expected to happen at all.

人们没有预料到，今年共和党这场引人注目的初选的加冕时刻会发生在印第安纳州。事实上，从一开始就没人预料这一时刻会发生。

By triumphing in the state’s primary on Tuesday, Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican party nominee, forcing his rival Ted Cruz to abandon his White House ambitions and setting himself up for a November general election fight with Hillary Clinton.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在周二赢得该州初选，成为共和党假定被提名人，迫使对手特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)放弃总统野心，并准备好在11月大选中与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)狭路相逢。

But the real estate mogul also demolished more than a year’s worth of conventional wisdom by building one of the least-expected electoral coalitions in history.

但这位房地产大亨也打破了一年多来形成的普遍看法，建立了一个历史上最不受期待的竞选联盟。

When Mr Trump descended the escalator at Trump Tower in New York last June and launched his unorthodox campaign with a bizarre speech attacking “Mexican rapists,” almost every commentator viewed it as just another bout of show business by the former star of The Apprentice, the reality television programme.

去年6月，当特朗普从纽约“特朗普大厦”(Trump Tower)扶梯上走下来，以一场攻击“墨西哥强奸犯”的荒唐演讲开启他的另类竞选活动时，几乎所有评论员都认为这不过是这位前电视真人秀节目《学徒》(The Apprentice)明星作的又一场商业“秀”。

The next morning, the New York Daily News ran the headline, “Clown runs for Prez”. The New York Post said that he gave a “fiery, take-no-prisoners speech that promised to create jobs and blow up the ‘stupid’ DC establishment”. While the Post was more charitable than most, it also ended up being much closer to the mark.

次日，《纽约每日新闻》(New York Daily News)刊出的头条题为“小丑竞选总统”(Clown runs for Prez)。《纽约邮报》(New York Post)说他发表了一场“激情澎湃、立场坚定的演讲，承诺要创造就业机会，还要击溃‘愚蠢的’华盛顿体制。”虽然《纽约邮报》比大多数媒体更仁慈，但也更接近事实。

Over the past nine months, Mr Trump has proven he has a better handle on what his party’s base wants than have elite Republican politicians who struggled to understand how the abrasive tycoon managed to forge past rivals such as former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey governor Chris Christie and now Mr Cruz.

在过去的9个月里，特朗普证明了自己比共和党精英政客更理解其选民的需要，而那些精英们怎样也想不出，这位粗鲁的大亨是如何成功挫败其竞选对手的，包括前佛罗里达州州长杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)、新泽西州州长克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)，以及现在的克鲁兹。

While many consider him a bully, Mr Trump has shown an uncanny ability to label his rivals with nicknames that stick, such as “Little Marco” Rubio, “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, and “Low Energy” Jeb Bush. He has already begun referring to “Crooked Hillary”.

虽然许多人认为他是恶霸，但特朗普展示了一项不可思议的能力——为他的对手起外号，而且这些外号很难甩脱。比如“小马可”•鲁比奥，“说谎特德”•克鲁兹，以及“低能”杰布•布什。现在他已经开始叫起“不诚实的希拉里”。

At campaign rallies from Iowa to Indiana, Republican voters repeatedly said that they were tired of Washington politicians and believed Mr Trump would return jobs to the US and “Make America Great Again”.

从爱荷华州到印第安纳州，共和党选民们在竞选集会上反复表示他们厌倦了华盛顿的政客，他们相信特朗普将把工作机会带回美国，“让美国再次伟大”。

Maria, a Hispanic woman at a Trump rally in South Bend, Indiana on Monday, said that while she did not agree completely with the tycoon’s immigration policy — which involves building a wall at the Mexican border — she considered him the best candidate. “You know what he is getting,” she said. “He is not faking it. He is not a flip-flopper.”

周一，在印第安纳州南本德(South Bend)的特朗普竞选集会上，一位名叫玛丽亚(Maria)的西班牙裔女子表示，虽然她并不完全同意这位大亨的移民政策——包括在美墨边境修筑隔离墙——但她认为他是最佳人选。她说：“你知道他想要什么，他没有伪装。他不是墙头草。”

When Mr Trump came in second after Mr Cruz in February’s Iowa caucus, which kicked off the Republican race, many experts concluded his campaign was a flash in the pan.

2月份爱荷华州的党团会议拉开了共和党竞选大幕，当时特朗普落后克鲁兹排在第二位，许多专家认定他的竞选是昙花一现。

But he won New Hampshire a week later and then started to sweep many of the states across the southern Bible Belt, winning larger numbers of evangelical voters than expected. The party was forced to acknowledge he would be the nominee unless one of his rivals consolidated the anti-Trump vote. With a long list of candidates remaining in the field, that effectively become impossible.

但一周后他就赢得了新罕布什尔州，接着开始横扫南部“圣经地带”(Bible Belt)的多个州，赢得了大量福音派选民，人数远超预期。共和党被迫承认他将成为被提名人，除非他的某位对手能集合反对特朗普的选票。由于共和党有着长长的参选者名单，这实际上变得不可能。

During the three-month primary campaign, Mr Trump consistently did better with certain specific demographic groups as his share of the Republican vote gradually climbed.

在过去3个月的初选中，特朗普在所获共和党选票比例逐步攀升的同时，在赢得某些特定群体支持方面一直做得比较好。

He won more men than women, more middle-aged voters than the young or old, and more people who did not go to college than those who did.

相对于女性、年轻或老年、受过高等教育的人群，他赢得了更多男性、中年、未受过高等教育的选民的支持。

But the notion that his supporters are mostly white, male blue-collar workers has been repeatedly challenged by exit poll data and by the faces at his rallies, notably in states such as Florida where he ousted Mr Rubio, a Cuban-American senator.

但关于特朗普的支持者大都是蓝领白人男性工人的说法，一再遭到了出口民调数据以及参加他竞选集会的人群构成的挑战，特别是在特朗普击败古巴裔参议员马可•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)的佛罗里达等州。

Even in New Hampshire, in February, he won among women and led the field in every age bracket and every educational category.

即便在今年2月新罕布什尔州的初选中，特朗普也在女性中赢得了支持，而且其支持率在各个年龄段以及教育水平的人群中都保持领先。

“We won with highly educated, with less than highly educated, with the rich and the poor . . . we won with everyone,” Mr Trump said at his rally in South Bend on Monday.

在本周一印第安纳州南本德举行的竞选集会上，特朗普称：“我们赢得了受过高等教育人群的支持，赢得了未受过高等教育人群的支持，赢得了富人的支持，赢得了穷人的支持……我们赢得了所有人的支持。”

In the same rally, he pointed out something that voters at his events frequently raise — that despite reservations about his personality, they approve of his message on tackling illegal immigration, hitting Isis harder, and doing better deals around the world.

在此次集会上，特朗普还强调了选民在其竞选活动中经常提出的一个看法——虽然对他的个性持保留态度，但他们赞成他在应对非法移民、进一步打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)以及在世界各地达成更优协议方面的观点。

“Polls start coming out where Trump is definitely the best on the border and best on everything, and I mean best on everything, except they didn’t like my personality. Who cares about my personality?” the tycoon said.

这位地产大亨称：“民调开始显示，特朗普在边境政策方面绝对是最好的，各方面都是最好的，我的意思是各方面都是最好的，除了他们不喜欢我的个性。但谁会在乎我的个性呢？”

But the hostile comments Mr Trump has made towards women do appear to have held him back. The presumptive nominee’s female support regularly comes in 10 percentage points below his backing from men — a weakness Mrs Clinton, who has all but sewn up the Democratic nomination, will seek to exploit in November.

但特朗普对女性的敌意言论确实看起来在阻碍他。这位假定被提名人的女性支持率通常低于其获得的男性支持率10个百分点，而几乎同样锁定民主党总统候选人提名的希拉里将在11月的大选中抓住这一弱点。

Mr Trump has done best with two demographic groups: those who earn less than $50,000 a year and people who have not graduated from college. These were the only two categories he won in Ohio, the Midwestern state where he was defeated by John Kasich, the sitting governor.

特朗普在赢得两个群体支持方面做得最好——年收入不到5万美元的选民以及未受过高等教育的选民。在美国中西部的俄亥俄州，特朗普仅在这两个群体中获胜，最终败于该州现任州长约翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)。

Mr Trump’s critics say he cannot expand his support beyond the conservative Republican base and capture the independent voters who are crucial to winning the general election. But others, including some Democrats, worry that he will once again prove conventional wisdom wrong by pivoting to the centre and being a more effective salesman for his message than the wooden Mrs Clinton.

特朗普的批评者称，他无法在保守的共和党选民之外扩大支持，也无法获得那些对赢得大选至关重要的无党派选民的支持。但其他人（包括一些民主党人）担心的是，他将通过转向中间派，通过比呆板的希拉里更有效地推销自己的理念，再次证明普遍的看法错了。

David Caputo, a politics expert at Pace University in New York, says Mr Trump’s candidacy will become more viable if “external events — such as a terrorist attack in the US — intervene, coupled with an economic downturn at home.

纽约佩斯大学(Pace University)政治专家大卫•卡普托(David Caputo)表示，如果有“外部事件——如美国遭受恐怖袭击——介入，再加之国内经济不景气”，特朗普的总统候选人资格将变得更加稳固。

“Party leaders will come back to him,” Mr Caputo said. “Do not underestimate Donald Trump for November.”

“共和党领袖们将回到他身边，”卡普托说，“不要低估唐纳德•特朗普在11月大选中的实力。”