特朗普“通俄门”恐酿宪政危机

Is this the beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Only Robert Mueller, the special counsel, is in any position to answer that, and perhaps not even then. But his target is clear.

这是唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)末日的开端吗？只有特别检察官罗伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)有能力回答这个问题，也许即便是他也不能。但他的目标很明确。

The decision to indict Paul Manafort, Mr Trump’s former campaign manager, for money laundering, tax evasion, and ten other criminal counts, is dramatic enough. Never before has a presidential campaign manager been charged with laundering millions while working for a foreign agent — nowhere close.

以洗钱、逃税和其他10项罪名起诉特朗普前竞选经理保罗?马纳福特(Paul Manafort)已经足够有戏剧性。以前从来没有一个总统竞选经理被指控洗钱数以百万计的美元并且为外国代理人工作——无人稍有可及。

That Mr Mueller swiftly followed up with the disclosure that George Papadopoulos, a former Trump campaign adviser, had confessed to having lied to the FBI over his contacts with Russia cemented the message. Mr Mueller could have published the Papadopolous charge sheet weeks ago. He did so within two hours of releasing the Manafort indictment.

米勒还迅速追加披露，前特朗普竞选顾问乔治?帕帕佐普洛斯(George Papadopoulos)承认，他在与俄罗斯接触一事上对美国联邦调查局(FBI)撒谎，这强化了此次起诉传出的讯息。米勒本可以在数周前公开对帕帕佐普洛斯的控罪书。然而，他在公开对马纳福特的起诉书后两小时内采取了这一行动。

Three things are clear. First, Mr Mueller aims to prove that Mr Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia. We cannot know whether he will succeed. But it is clear that he is shaking every tree and pursuing every lead available.

有三件事是清楚的。首先，米勒的目的是证明特朗普的竞选与俄罗斯有勾结。我们无从得知他是否能够成功。但显然他正在给所有人制造压力，追查每一条可行的线索。

Papadopolous has clearly “flipped” and is co-operating with his investigation. Mr Manafort, and his business associate, Richard Gates, are now under pressure to follow suit. The multiple charges against them could result in many years behind bars. They will be highly incentivised to strike a plea deal with Mr Mueller to slim down their charge sheets.

帕帕佐普洛斯显然已经“崩溃”，正在配合米勒的调查。马纳福特及其商业伙伴理查德?盖茨(Richard Gates)也正承受着配合调查的压力。针对他们的多项指控可能导致多年的牢狱生涯。与米勒达成认罪协议以缩短控罪书对两人而言将是一个极其诱惑的选项。

Others in Mr Mueller’s sights include Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s first national security adviser, who resigned shortly after he took the job over having failed to disclose his campaign contacts with the Russian government.

米勒的其他目标包括特朗普的首任国家安全顾问迈克尔?弗林(Michael Flynn)。弗林因为未能公开他同俄罗斯政府与竞选有关的接触而在就任这一职位后不久辞职。

Further up the chain, Mr Mueller’s targets could include Donald Trump Jr, the president’s eldest son, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, both of whom joined Mr Manafort for a meeting with a Russian government-linked lawyer during the campaign.

继续扩大范围，米勒的目标可能还包括总统的长子小唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump Jr)以及女婿贾里德?库什纳(Jared Kushner)，两人都曾与马纳福特一起，在竞选期间与一个与俄罗斯政府有联系的律师会面。

The more Mr Mueller squeezes, the more indictments are likely to follow. As the most seasoned investigator in the US, it is safe to say Mr Mueller knows what he is doing. When and how he moves will be carefully thought out.

米勒越是施压，后续就越有可能出现更多的起诉书。作为美国最有经验的调查人员，可以说米勒知道自己在做什么。他在何时、以何种方式采取行动都是经过仔细考虑的。

Second, Mr Trump is an expert at diversion. Expect dramatic fireworks in the coming hours and days. Over the weekend, Mr Trump sent a flurry of tweets about Hillary Clinton’s alleged collusion with a Russian-owned uranium company while she was secretary of state. The story has been relentlessly pursued by Fox News, Breitbart and other pro-Trump outlets.

第二，特朗普是转移视线的专家。可以预计，接下来数小时到数天将会出现戏剧性的烟幕弹。周末，特朗普就希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在任国务卿期间涉嫌与一家俄罗斯铀公司勾结一事发表了一系列Twitter帖子。福克斯新闻(Fox News)、Breitbart和其他亲特朗普的媒体渠道对此事大肆渲染。

Republican legislators are threatening to set up congressional inquiries into Mrs Clinton’s role in approving the sale of a controlling stake in Uranium One, a Canadian-owned company that mines roughly a fifth of US uranium extraction. That story is likely to intensify. Mr Trump urged nameless entities on Twitter on Sunday to “DO SOMETHING” about Mrs Clinton’s “crimes”. Either way, the “lock her up” mantra is back in the headlines and is directly related to Mr Trump’s sense of vulnerability.

共和党议员们威胁要对希拉里在批准出售Uranium One公司的控股股份中的作用展开国会调查，Uranium One是一家加拿大公司，占美国铀矿开采的大约五分之一。这件事很可能继续发酵。特朗普周日在Twitter上敦促未指明实体针对希拉里的“罪行”“做点什么”。不论怎样，“逮捕她”的口号又回到了媒体头条，并与特朗普的无助感直接相关。

Meanwhile, Mr Trump’s 11-day trip to Asia, which is his most strategically-important since becoming president, is likely to be overshadowed, if not consumed, by the fire back in Washington. He leaves on Friday. Should we expect a new round of rhetorical salvos on North Korea?

与此同时，特朗普为期11天的亚洲之行，可能由于华盛顿这回“后院起火”而黯然失色甚至被毁掉，而这是特朗普出任美国总统以来最具战略重要性的一次访问。特朗普将于周五启程。我们该预计他对朝鲜展开新一轮喊话吗？

Third — and most critically — the judgment that matters most is that of the Republican party. Mr Trump has made it clear he would like to fire Mr Mueller. Most people would see that as obstruction of justice, which is an impeachable offence. No court can prevent Mr Trump from firing Mr Mueller. Mr Trump can only be impeached by Congress, which is Republican controlled. Nor can any court stop Mr Trump from pardoning people whom Mr Mueller indicts. Only Republicans can hold Mr Trump to account.

第三，也是最关键的，最重要的裁决是共和党的裁决。特朗普已明确表示他想解雇米勒。大多数人会认为这妨碍司法，是可以被弹劾的过失。但任何法庭都无法阻止特朗普解雇米勒。唯一能够弹劾特朗普的是由共和党控制的国会。也没有任何法庭能够阻止特朗普赦免被米勒起诉的那些人。只有共和党能向特朗普问责。

So far very few elected Republicans have said anything about the Manafort indictment. Nor have they drawn a red line against the firing of Mr Mueller.

到目前为止，还没有几个当选的共和党人对马纳福特被起诉说过什么。也没有人反对特朗普解雇米勒。

Opinion polls suggest Republican voters remain strongly behind Mr Trump, which is the number that matters most to Republican legislators. Unless that changes, Mr Trump may feel that he can get away with sacking Mr Mueller. At that point America would be plunged into a constitutional crisis. I would now put the chances of that happening at more than 50-50.

民意调查显示共和党的选民们仍然强烈支持特朗普，这也是共和党议员最关心的数字。除非支持率发生变化，否则特朗普也许觉得他可以为所欲为地解雇米勒。那时美国将会陷入宪政危机。目前我认为那种状况发生的几率超过50%。