中国"新丝绸之路"开发项目面临诸多挑战

In October 2012, Wang Jisi – professor at Beijing University – urged China to re-open its ancient commercial trade routes with the West. In 2013, China's President, Xi Jinping proposed to its neighbors the “One Road, One Belt” initiative. China's aim? To achieve $2.5tn in additional annual trade with the nations along the proposed routes over the next 10 years.

2012年10月，北京大学教授王辑思敦促中国政府重新打通连通西方的古老商业贸易路线。2013年，中国国家主席习近平向多个邻国提出了“一带一路”(One Road, One Belt)计划。中国的目标是什么？在未来10年内实现与沿线国家增加2.5万亿美元的年度贸易额。

What is the current state of the project and how likely is it to succeed?

该项目眼下处于何种状态？成功的可能性有多大？

The private sector, for one, has started reinforcing the connectivity between the East and the West. In 2011, supply chain operator DB Schenker started weekly trains between China and Germany. It carried 40,000 TEU containers (20 foot equivalent unit) from 2012 to 2014.

民营部门已开始加强东西方联系。2011年，供应链运营商德铁信可(DB Schenker)在中国和德国之间开通了每周运行的列车。2012年至2014年，这条路线的货运总量达到4万标准集装箱（20英尺）。

In 2015, the Port of Rotterdam welcomed its first containers by rail from China. This route shortens the delivery time of goods from around 60 days by sea to about 14 days by land. In the future, trains from Chongqing in China to Duisburg in Germany transiting 10,800 km (6,700 miles) are expected to reduce delivery time to 10 days. Companies such as Hewlett Packard are connecting European customers with the factories in China through the new route. Returning containers are filled, for example, with western luxury cars.

2015年，荷兰鹿特丹港迎来了第一批经由铁路运抵的中国集装箱。这一陆上路线开通后，海路大约60天的货运时间被缩短至约14天。未来，从中国重庆通往德国杜伊斯堡、行程1.08万公里（合6700英里）的列车，预计将把货运时间缩短至10天。惠普(HP)等公司已经利用新路线从中国工厂向欧洲客户发货。回程的集装箱有时装满了西方的豪华车。

The result is that the modern caravan has started rolling. Thus, the “New Silk Road”development project – which embraces an area that is home to about 70 per cent of the world's population, produces about 55 per cent of global GDP and has about 75 per cent of known energy reserves – has been taken its first steps. Of course, challenges remain.

结果是，现代版的“大篷车”已行驶起来。也就是说，“新丝绸之路”开发项目——其覆盖的疆域拥有世界约70%的人口，国内生产总值(GDP)的全球占比约为55%，已探明能源储量的全球占比约为75%——已迈出了最初的几步。当然，还有诸多挑战。

The ambition requires efficient and effective collaboration between the 40 countries located alongside the historic silk routes, both those that went overland from China to Europe and those that went by sea. China has taken the initiative to start aligning the participants, signing partnership agreements related to the initiative from 2013 onward with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

这一宏大计划要求历史性的丝绸之路沿线的40个国家之间开展高效率和有效的协作，不但包括从中国经由陆路抵达欧洲的路线，而且包括海上交通路线。中国已采取主动，开始对接参与者，从2013年开始与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和白俄罗斯签署了与新丝绸之路有关的合作协议。

The project requires significant funding – an estimated $8tn between 2010 and 2020 alone. The China government announced several commitments including a $40bn Silk Road Fund to be focused on projects in the Central Asia region, a $50bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and a $10bn BRICS-led New Development Bank. Some sources suggest that Beijing is prepared to support the projects to the tune of between $160bn to $300bn. The China Development Bank and the Maritime Silk Road Bank are set to reinforce such support.

新丝绸之路项目需要大量资金投入，仅2010年至2020年之间就需要投入大约8万亿美元。中国政府已宣布多项承诺，包括专注于中亚地区项目的400亿美元的丝路基金(Silk Road Fund)、500亿美元的亚洲基础设施投资银行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，简称亚投行），以及100亿美元的金砖国家新开发银行(New Development Bank)。有些消息人士暗示，中国政府准备投入1600亿至3000亿美元支持这些项目。中国国家开发银行(CDB)和海上丝绸之路银行(Maritime Silk Road Bank)将加强这些支持。

The New Silk Road project needs to overcome technical and regulatory challenges. The trains require at least two changes of gauge – as China and Europe use the standard of 1435 mm gauge while Belarus, Russia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan use the broad gauge of 1520 mm. Many borders need to be crossed. Customs clearance processes need to be standardised – advanced information technology and digitisation might help. Ideally, the New Silk Road will become a free-trade corridor.

新丝绸之路项目需要克服技术与监管挑战。列车需要至少两次变轨，因为中国和欧洲的铁轨宽度均为1435毫米，而白俄罗斯、俄罗斯、蒙古和哈萨克斯坦的铁轨宽度为1520毫米。列车沿途要穿越多国边境。通关程序需要标准化——先进信息技术和数字化或许有所帮助。在理想情况下，新丝绸之路将成为一条自由贸易走廊。

Each country needs to understand what to contribute, such as what infrastructure and policies to launch, how to finance the initiative and what benefits to be expected from the investments. A well-designed business model which features a plan outlining how the Silk Road will work is critical to ensure that additional value – new businesses, new industries and new jobs – is created along the entire value chain and not merely at both ends (China and Europe).

每个国家都需要明白自己应作出何种贡献（比如推出何种基础设施与政策），如何融资，以及预计会从这些投资项目获得哪些效益。精心设计的商业模式，包括一份勾勒出丝绸之路将如何运作的方案，对于确保沿着整条价值链（而不仅仅在中国和欧洲这两端）创造附加价值——新企业、新产业和新就业岗位——来说是至关重要的。

Imbalances in economic strength and the flows of goods – China exports are traditionally stronger than those of most of its trading partners – and seasonality like slow months and peaks need to be factored in the model.

经济实力和产品流动上的失衡——传统上，中国的出口强于大多数贸易伙伴——以及淡季和旺季等季节性因素需要体现在商业模式中。

The success of the New Silk Road depends as well on clear governance rules and mechanisms. This includes the answer to the question of whether this project requires an independent organisation or can handle strategic decision-making and dispute resolution in a bilateral or multilateral way.

新丝绸之路的成功也有赖于清晰的治理规则与机制。这包括回答一个问题：该项目是需要成立一个独立机构、还是以双边或多边方式来进行战略决策和争议解决？

The incentive to get this right is huge. The participating countries will be able to tap in a new source of growth and need to balance spending with progress. Currently, China is carrying the lion share of the investment. In return, Asia's leading economy expects significant stimulus for its market and favourable ties with countries along the belt.

解决好这个问题的动力是巨大的。参与国将能够获得新的增长源头，同时需要在支出与进展之间做好平衡。目前，中国拿出了大部分投资。作为回报，亚洲领先经济体期待其市场得到重大刺激，并与丝绸之路沿线国家打造有利的关系。

The private sector will leverage the potential and increase investments proportional with the improvements in infrastructure and processes. If successful, the reboot of the ancient Silk Road will without doubt bring additional growth opportunities to business and nations, and provide also better access to no less than 66 per cent of the world's middle class, which is expected to live in China by 2030.

民营行业将挖掘潜力，随着基础设施和流程的改善，成比例地增加投资。如果取得成功，古老丝绸之路的重启无疑将为沿线国家及其企业带来额外的增长机遇，并让它们更好地接触到世界中产人口的66%（2030年中国中产阶层人口预计在世界中产总数中所占比例）。