智利庞大的埃斯孔迪达 铜矿企业面临增长挑战

The giant Chilean Escondida mine produces more copper than anywhere on earth. Some 1.2m tonnes emerge from the BHP Billiton-run facility each year.

智利庞大的埃斯孔迪达(Escondida)铜矿的铜产量位居世界第一，这座由必和必拓(BHP Billiton)运营的铜矿每年出产约120万吨铜。

For the largest miners, Escondida also serves as a key measure for world copper output.

对大型矿企而言，埃斯孔迪达还是衡量全球铜产量的重要指标之一。

To meet global demand over the next decade, the industry “will have to add the equivalent of a new Escondida every 15 months”, says Jean-Sebastien Jacques, head of copper at Rio Tinto, which owns a minority stake in the mine. First Quantum, a mid-tier copper miner, says if China, India and Brazil reached EU levels of copper use by 2020, it would imply nine new Escondidas.

力拓(Rio Tinto)持有埃斯孔迪达的少数权益，该公司铜业务负责人让-塞巴斯蒂安•雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)表示，为满足未来十年全球需求，铜矿业“必须每15个月就增加相当于一座埃斯孔迪达铜矿的产量”。中型铜矿企业First Quantum表示，如果到2020年时中国、印度和巴西的用铜量达到欧盟的水平，那就需要增加9座埃斯孔迪达。

Such predictions explain why big UK miners are talking up their growth potential in copper, even though worries over Chinese demand have driven the price of the metal to its lowest since 2010.

这类预测解释了为什么英国大型矿企正在大谈自己的铜产量增长潜力，尽管眼下对中国需求的担忧已推动铜价降至2010年以来的低位。

Both Rio and BHP believe the copper market is oversupplied now but will tighten from 2018, with growing deficits. “The copper story remains very strong,” says Mike Henry, BHP’s president for marketing.

力拓和必和必拓认为虽然铜市场目前供应过剩，但从2018年起供应将会吃紧，供需缺口将越来越大。必和必拓营销总裁迈克•亨利(Mike Henry)说：“铜的势头依然强劲。”

Some of the UK’s pure-play copper miners are investing heavily in growth. Antofagasta expects to lift annual output from its Chilean mines from 700,000 tonnes last year to 900,000 tonnes by 2018. Kaz Minerals is building two mines in Kazakhstan.

英国部分单一业务铜矿商正大举投资提高产量。安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)希望到2018年时，将其智利铜矿的年产量将从2014年的70万吨提升至90万吨。哈萨克矿业(Kaz Minerals)正在哈萨克斯坦建设两座铜矿。

For BHP and Rio, copper is especially important now that investments in sectors such as iron ore and coal appear to be coming to an end. Iron ore is heavily linked to Chinese infrastructure construction that is expected eventually to tail off, and coal could be threatened by changing environmental rules. Demand for copper is expected to be steadier: it has a wide range of applications and is forecast to be widely needed as the world’s largest economy shifts towards more consumer-led growth.

对必和必拓和力拓来说，鉴于铁矿石及煤炭等领域的投资似乎将告一段落，铜矿就变得尤为重要。铁矿石与中国基础设施建设密切相关，而中国的基建预计终会逐渐冷却；环保规则的改变则可能会对煤炭构成威胁。铜的需求预计将更加稳定：铜的用途很多，随着全球最大经济体转向更多地依靠消费来拉动经济增长，预计铜将面临广泛的需求。

But the complexity and expense of projects means the larger miners may not be in a position to generate a quick acceleration of copper output.

但铜矿项目的复杂性和高昂成本意味着，较大的矿企可能难以迅速提高铜产量。

Patrick Jones, an analyst at Nomura in London, says: “The major diversified miners all have sizeable copper businesses but they all have predicaments of one kind or another when it comes to their future growth options.”

野村(Nomura)驻伦敦分析师帕特里克•琼斯(Patrick Jones)说：“大型的多元化矿企都拥有规模可观的铜业务，但说到未来的发展选择，它们全都有这样或那样的难题。”

Escondida will suffer a dip in output in 2016 as BHP mines lower grade ores. Meanwhile, Bingham Canyon, Rio’s mine in Utah that has produced copper for more than a century, will cut output this year amid rehabilitation work.

随着必和必拓开采的矿石品位降低，埃斯孔迪达在2016年将出现产量下降。同时，力拓在美国犹他州的宾厄姆峡谷(Bingham Canyon)铜矿今年将因修复性工作而减产，该铜矿运营已超过一个世纪。

Oyu Tolgoi, the other copper mine operated by Rio, has brought more problems. An expected underground phase of the mine has been delayed by a dispute with the Mongolian government. Rio wrote down the value of the project in 2013.

力拓运营的另一座铜矿奥尤陶勒盖(Oyu Tolgoi)带来了更多的问题。因与蒙古国政府产生纠纷，该矿预期中的地下开采阶段已经推迟。力拓在2013年对该项目的价值进行了减计。

Rio took a step forward in December when President Barack Obama signed legislation that paves the way to build Resolution, a US copper mine expected to be one of the world’s largest. Rio owns 55 per cent of the project, with BHP owning 45 per cent.

去年12月，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)签署法案、为Resolution铜矿的建设铺平道路，此举让力拓向前迈进了一步。这座位于美国的铜矿预计将成为全球最大的铜矿之一，力拓拥有该项目55%的权益，必和必拓拥有45%。

Yet obtaining all the permits for Resolution could easily take Rio another five to seven years. “There is much work ahead to complete the regulatory approval process,” cautions Mr Jacques.

然而，力拓要想为Resolution搞到全部所需的许可证，很可能还需花费5到7年时间。雅克警告说：“还需要做大量工作才能走完监管审批程序。”

Because receiving approval for mines is so laborious, Rio and others have walked away from some projects, even if the copper resources involved are substantial. Since 2013 Rio and Anglo American have both given up on Pebble, a huge copper deposit in Alaska that is controversial for its potential effect on fisheries, for example.

由于获取开采许可是如此的费力，力拓等矿企已经放弃了一些项目，尽管这些项目涉及的铜资源十分可观。比如，自2013年以来，力拓和英美资源集团(Anglo American)均在Pebble铜矿上打了退堂鼓。这座巨大的铜矿位于美国阿拉斯加州，因对当地渔场有潜在影响而备受争议。

Another challenge for miners is the expense involved in building mines. Glencore, the world’s third largest copper miner by annual output and larger in copper than any of its diversified rivals, sold its Las Bambas project in 2014 to MMG, a subsidiary of China’s Minmetals, for about $7bn. MMG said in October that the remaining 25 per cent of construction would cost between $2.7bn and $3.2bn.

矿企面临的另一个挑战是矿场建设费用。嘉能可(Glencore)是全球以年产量计的第三大铜矿商，其铜产量大于所有多元化竞争对手。2014年，嘉能可以70亿美元左右的价格，将旗下拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)铜矿出售给中国五矿集团(Minmetals)子公司五矿资源(MMG)。五矿资源在去年10月表示，该项目的建设工作还剩四分之一，而这部分工作的成本将在27亿到32亿美元之间。

Those are the sort of sums that mining companies know shareholders dislike. Glencore is unwilling to build projects and most other miners are trying to

矿业公司都知道，股东们不喜欢看到这么大的开销。嘉能可不愿建设矿场，其他矿企则大多在努力寻找低成本的开发途径。必和必拓拥有澳大利亚的奥林匹克坝(Olympic Dam)铜矿，2012年因可能需要的费用而放弃了一项扩张计划。该公司准备用数年时间测试一种更廉价的加工方法。它正在斯彭斯(Spence)铜矿进行类似的尝试。斯彭斯是位于智利的一个规模较小的项目。

find lower-cost development routes. BHP, which owns Olympic Dam, an

琼斯说：“所有矿企都对铜很上心，因为它们都认为市场会在几年后回归供不应求的局面。但它们正在执行和资本效益方面尝试更精明的做法。一些矿企走到了岔路口：它们该不该扩大铜产量？它们如何能够更精明地做到这一点？”

Australian mine, abandoned an expansion plan in 2012 because of the likely cost. The company is set to take several years to test an alternative, cheaper processing method. It is doing something similar at Spence, a smaller Chilean project.

矿业繁荣时期的失败交易曾令力拓深受打击，而必和必拓已表示自己不大可能通过收购来追求增长。

“All the miners are keen on copper because they all see the market returning to deficit in a few years, but they are trying to be smarter about execution and capital efficiency,” says Mr Jones. “Some of the miners are at a fork in the road: should they grow in copper and how can they do it smarter?”

必和必拓行政总裁安德鲁•麦肯齐(Andrew Mackenzie)上月表示，“很难想象这类并购活动的回报能比得上”必和必拓现有铜矿项目的预期回报。“我们今天在铜业务上想表明的是，我们已经拥有所有我们想开发的铜矿项目，尽管过去并非总是如此。”