全球企业利润增长将大幅走低

The rise of emerging market companies will sharply reduce global corporate profit growth, hurting investors but benefiting consumers, according to analysis of 30,000 companies by the McKinsey Global Institute.

据麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)对3万家公司的分析，新兴市场企业的崛起将大幅降低全球企业利润增长，这对投资者不利，但消费者将从中受益。

Global corporate net income rose fivefold between 1980 and 2013, outstripping growth in global gross domestic product by 70 per cent, McKinsey said, pushing corporate profits from 7.6 per cent of world GDP to 9.8 per cent. In the US the ratio of corporate profits to national income is now at its highest level since 1929, some 11.6 per cent, double the level of 1990.

麦肯锡表示，1980年到2013年间，全球企业净收入增长了5倍，比全球国内生产总值(GDP)增长超出70%。这将企业利润从占全球GDP的7.6%推升到9.8%。在美国，企业利润占国民收入约11.6%，达到1929年以来最高水平，是1990年水平的两倍。

However, the institute believes this will ultimately prove to be the peak, with forces such as the rise of emerging market corporates, technology and rising labour costs likely to slow corporate profit growth to 1 per cent a year over the next decade, a fifth of the average rate over the past 35 years.

但麦肯锡认为，事实将最终证明这已是全球企业利润的巅峰。受新兴市场企业崛起、科技进步，以及劳动力成本上升等因素影响，未来十年企业利润增长很可能会降到一年增长1%，为过去35年平均增长率的五分之一。

As a result, corporate profits are likely to shrink back to 7.9 per cent of global GDP by 2025.

这样一来，至2025年企业利润有可能收缩至全球GDP的7.9%。

“Our research shows the extent of the (predominantly western) corporations’ unprecedented bull run over the last 30 years. But there are indications of a very significant change in the nature of global competition and the economic environment,” said Richard Dobbs, a director of the McKinsey Global Institute.

麦肯锡全球研究所的理查德多布斯(Richard Dobbs)表示：“我们的研究显示，过去30年（以西方为主的）全球企业的繁荣达到了前所未有的程度。但也有迹象显示，全球竞争的性质以及经济环境都出现了重大转变。”

Key to this view is the rise of emerging market companies which, typically, put less onus on short-term profit than their western rivals, McKinsey argues.

麦肯锡认为，这一观点的关键在于新兴市场企业的崛起，通常情况下，这类企业实现短期利润的责任要小于它们的西方对手。

“Emerging market players, who by 2025 will represent 45 per cent of the Fortune 500, are playing by radically different rules and, in many cases, accept a 25-50 per cent lower return than their western peers,” added Mr Dobbs.

多布斯还说：“至2025年，新兴市场企业将占到《财富》(Fortune)500强企业中的45%。它们的游戏规则与西方企业截然不同，而且在许多情况下，它们接受比西方同行低25%-50%的回报。”

The research suggests that EM companies accounted for a record 32 per cent of the $7.2tn pool of global net post-tax operating profits in 2013, with China (14 per cent) leading the way. This figure rises to 39 per cent, if the likes of South Korea and Hong Kong, which McKinsey classes as advanced, are included.

该研究显示，2013年全球税后净营业利润为7.2万亿美元，新兴市场企业创纪录的占到了32%，中国处于领先地位，占比14%。麦肯锡将韩国和香港等地区列入发达经济体，如果加入这些地区，该数据将升至39%。

In the past decade, the 50 largest EM companies have made their presence felt globally, doubling their share of revenue from overseas activity to 40 per cent, even as their domestic markets have expanded rapidly.

在过去十年里，前五十大新兴市场公司已将它们的影响力扩散至全球，在国内市场迅速扩大的同时，还将海外业务在营收中占的比重提高了一倍至40%。

However, they tend to have different structures, and therefore goals, than their western rivals.

但与西方对手相比，它们往往有着不同的组织结构，因而目标也就不同。

In North America and Japan, around three-quarters of revenues are generated by widely held public companies. However, China and India are dominated by government-owned companies, accounting for 58 per cent and 38 per cent of revenues respectively (see the first chart).

在北美和日本，大约有四分之三的企业收入是由股权分散型上市公司创造的。中国和印度的企业营收则为国企主导，中国国企营收占总营收58%，印度国企为38%（见第一张图表）。

“Roughly half of the world’s largest state-owned enterprises are in China, and another quarter are in other emerging economies,” said Mr Dobbs.

多布斯说：“全球大型国有企业大约有一半在中国，还有四分之一分布在其他新兴经济体。”

He argued that these SOEs’ objectives may be national priorities such as boosting employment, ensuring food security or securing natural resources, rather than maximising profits, as is prevalent in the west.

他认为这些国企的目标可能是一些国家优先事项，如增加就业、确保粮食安全以及获取自然资源，而不是西方流行的利润最大化。

Likewise, most emerging markets also have a high preponderance of family-owned companies. McKinsey argues that companies with a controlling shareholder have the freedom to take a long-term view and invest to build market share, without undue pressure to meet quarterly profit targets.

同样，家族企业在大多数新兴市场也占了很高比例。麦肯锡认为，有一个控股股东的公司可以自由地从长远考虑，投资扩大市场份额，而无需背负过多压力去满足季度盈利目标。

As the first chart shows, family-owned companies are also commonplace in western Europe, but McKinsey says controlling shareholders in, say, China tend to have stakes twice as large as those in western Europe, facilitating “a more aggressive pursuit of growth”.

如第一张图表所示，家族企业在西欧也很普遍，但麦肯锡表示在中国等新兴市场，家族企业控股股东的股份往往达到西欧的两倍，促使企业“更积极追求增长”。

The upshot, it says, is that widely held, predominantly western, companies tend to have higher profit margins. Yet EM companies are able to grow faster by reinvesting larger sums in fixed assets; between 1999 and 2008, EM companies returned only 39 per cent of their earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends, compared with 80 per cent in the developed world.

麦肯锡表示，其结果是股权分散型公司（主要在西方）往往有较高的利润率。但新兴市场企业能够通过对固定资产进行数额较大的再投资，从而得到更快增长。1999年到2008年期间，新兴市场企业以分红形式回报给股东的部分仅占盈利的39%，发达国家则为80%。

This allowed publicly listed EM companies to invest $6tn in fixed assets in industries ranging from resources extraction to utilities and capital goods between 2000 and 2013, McKinsey said.

麦肯锡表示，因而新兴市场上市公司在2000年到2013年间的固定资产投资高达6万亿美元，所投资领域包括资源开采、公用设施和资本货物等。

These differences are apparent in the second chart. EM companies tend to have a lower return on invested capital than western ones. Moreover, this gap is widening, with EM companies sporting slower growth in ROIC since 2000, with this measure falling in China.

这些差异从第二张图表可明显看出。新兴市场企业投入资本的回报率往往低于西方公司，而且这种差距正日益拉大。自2000年以来，新兴市场企业资本回报率(ROIC)增长放缓，中国的这一指标则在持续下降。

Operating profit margins have also grown fastest in the west, with margins declining in both Latin America and China, where they fell by 5.6 percentage points between 2000 and 2013.

西方企业的营业利润率也是增长最快的，拉丁美洲和中国的利润率则在不断下降，在2000年到2013年间下降了5.6个百分点。

Yet growth in turnover has been far faster in the emerging world; 77.3 per cent in China, 44.5 per cent in Latin America and 40.5 per cent in India and Southeast Asia, compared with around 20 per cent in North America and western Europe.

但新兴世界的企业营业额增长速度要远大于西方，相比北美和西欧的20%左右，中国为77.3%，拉丁美洲为44.5%，印度和东南亚是40.5%。

This growth differential has been most noticeable in capital-intensive industries, such as steel and chemicals.

这一增长差异在钢铁、化学品等资本密集型产业最为显著。

One might think that as these EM companies attain ever higher market share, they might start to behave more like western companies in terms of maximising profits.

有人可能会认为，随着新兴市场企业获得的市场份额越来越大，在追求利润最大化方面，它们的行为可能会开始越来越像西方企业。

However, Mr Dobbs believes this will not be the case. He says return on invested capital in China, India and Latin America has actually fallen since peaking in 2006. This has pushed these areas’ ROIC down towards levels in Japan and South Korea, two of the first Asian countries to industrialise, and which still show no signs of switching to more western-type corporate behaviour.

但多布斯不这么认为。他表示中国、印度和拉丁美洲的资本回报率在2006年已经见顶，此后实际上在下降，令这些地区的投资回报率降到更加接近于日本和韩国的水平。日韩两国是第一批实现工业化的亚洲国家，尚未有迹象显示两国企业的行为变得更像西方风格。

As a result, McKinsey argues that these “more numerous, formidable and more global” EM companies tend to destroy more value for incumbents than they create for themselves. Thus, it says their continued expansion will push down global corporate profits in the coming decade.

麦肯锡认为，这些“数量更多、更令人生畏和更具全球性”的新兴市场企业对现有企业价值的破坏，往往要大于它们为自己创造的价值。因此麦肯锡表示未来十年，新兴市场企业的持续扩张将对全球企业利润构成下行压力。

This effect will be augmented by the ongoing expansion of technology companies, which McKinsey believes will continue to disrupt longstanding business models by creating platforms that drive marginal costs to almost zero. In the process this will “divert huge amount of industry value to consumer surplus”.

高科技企业的不断发展将进一步加剧这种效应，麦肯锡认为高科技企业创造的平台把边际成本降低到几乎为零，从而继续颠覆长期商业模式。这一过程将“把工业价值大量转化为消费者盈余”。

Skype, for example, saved consumers 37bn in international phone charges in 2013 alone, McKinsey calculates.

以Skype为例，据麦肯锡估算，仅2013年Skype就为消费者节省了370亿英镑的国际电话费。

Similarly, companies’ costs have been pushed lower by 1.2bn people, most of them lowly paid EM workers, being added to the global labour pool between 1980 and 2010.

1980年到2010年之间全球劳动力大军增加了12亿人，其中大多为低薪的新兴市场工人，这些新增劳动力同样降低了企业成本。

With this process now largely complete, McKinsey believes a “global war for talent” will heat up, raising costs and allowing labour’s share of global GDP, which has fallen sharply since 1980, to recover.

鉴于该过程现已基本完成，麦肯锡认为“全球人才争夺战”将升温，这将提高企业成本，并使劳动力占全球GDP的比例出现回升——该比例自1980年以来大幅下滑。

It concludes by arguing that consumers, as well as labour, will be the beneficiaries from the resulting pullback in corporate profits, with investors the losers.

麦肯锡最后总结道，消费者以及劳动者将成为企业利润放缓的受益者，而投资者将成为输家。