中国工业利润增长仍严重依赖刺激政策

Profits at Chinese industrial companies surged last month, fuelled by rising commodity prices and a buoyant real estate market, but analysts warn that profit growth remains heavily reliant on government stimulus and smokestack industries.

受大宗商品价格上涨以及房地产市场坚挺推动，上月中国工业企业利润出现飙升，但分析师们警告称，这种利润增长仍然严重依赖于政府刺激政策和烟囱产业。

Industrial profits increased 14.5 per cent in November from a year earlier, China’s statistics bureau said yesterday, the second-fastest monthly growth since June 2014. But the agency cautioned that growth was “overly reliant” on a price rebound in oil refining, steel and other raw materials. Coal mining profits rose 156 per cent in January through to November from a year earlier.

中国国家统计局昨天表示，11月中国工业企业利润同比增长14.5%，这是自2014年6月以来第二高的增速。但是该机构告诫称，这一增长“过于依赖”石油精炼、钢铁和其他原材料价格反弹。今年1至11月，煤炭开采利润同比增长156%。

Strong credit growth, especially mortgages loans, has fed a rally in property prices this year. Fiscal spending on infrastructure has also stoked demand for basic commodities. The price recovery has revived industrial profits, which were in decline for seven straight months through to last December.

强劲的信贷增长（特别是抵押贷款）推动了今年房地产价格上涨。在基础设施方面的财政支出也刺激了对基本大宗商品的需求。价格复苏带来了工业企业利润回升，截至去年12月工业企业利润曾连续7个月下滑。

“We have to look at whether there is an overflow effect [from the commodities sector]. It’s like a heating stove. How effective it is depends not just on whether it gets hot, but also whether it can warm the surrounding area,” said Hu Yanhong, an analyst at Yingda Securities Research Institute in Shenzhen.

“我们不得不看看其中是否存在（来自大宗商品行业的）溢出效应。这就像是一个加热炉。它的有效性不仅取决于炉子是否变热了，还取决于它能否使周围变得温暖起来，”位于深圳的英大证券研究所(Yingda Securities Research Institute)分析师胡研宏表示。

Rising commodity prices also have pulled China out of deflation, which was worsening the country’s heavy corporate debt burden and prompting businesses to postpone spending. The producer price index was in negative territory for more than four consecutive years through to August, but producer price inflation hit a nearly five-year high of 3.3 per cent in November.

大宗商品价格上涨也把中国拉出通缩困境，通缩压力曾加重中国沉重的企业债务负担并促使企业延缓支出。截至今年8月，生产者价格指数(PPI)连续4年以上处于负增长，但11月中国PPI上涨3.3%，触及近5年来的高点。

However, commodity price inflation is disrupting the government’s “supply-side reform” efforts focused on eliminating excess manufacturing capacity in sectors such as coal and steel. China’s cabinet has reprimanded the vice-governors of Hebei and Jiangsu provinces for allowing local enterprises to illegally produce steel, the official Xinhua news agency reported yesterday.

然而，大宗商品价格上涨正在破坏政府的“供给侧改革”努力——这些努力聚焦于消除煤炭和钢铁等行业的过剩产能。据官方的新华社昨天报道，因为河北省和江苏省允许本地企业非法生产钢铁，中央政府处分了这两个省的副省长。

Analysts warn that a frothy property market and commodity inflation are not strong foundations for corporate profit growth. The government has imposed purchase and lending restrictions in recent months to cool the property market, amid fears of a bubble and rising anger at unaffordable housing. House price growth slowed in November, suggesting those measures are starting to have an effect.

分析师警告称，房地产市场泡沫和大宗商品通胀并不是企业利润增长的坚实基础。最近几个月，由于担心房地产泡沫和人们对房价难以承受的愤怒加深，中国政府对购房和房贷出台限制措施，以此给房地产市场降温。11月住宅价格增速放缓，似乎表明这些措施已开始奏效。

“We are conservative about the longer term profit outlook, as we do not see signs of a recovery in aggregate demand given a cooling property market and high corporate leverage,” wrote Nomura analysts led by chief China economist Yang Zhao.

“考虑到房地产市场降温以及企业杠杆率高企，我们没有看到总需求复苏的迹象，因此我们对于较长期利润前景持保守态度，”以中国区首席经济学家赵杨为首的野村证券(Nomura)分析师们写道。

Mr Zhao also noted that yesterday’s data suggest an “unhealthy” profit distribution. Year-to-date profit growth at state-owned enterprises accelerated by 3.4 percentage points in November, while growth at private companies decelerated by 0.7 percentage points. State-owned companies dominate oil refining.

赵杨还提到，昨天公布的数据表明利润分配“不健康”。1至11月国有控股企业利润增长较1至10月加快了3.4个百分点，而同期私营企业利润增长减缓了0.7个百分点。国有企业主导着炼油行业。