中国仍将严重依赖中东石油

Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration find the U.S. will drastically reduce its reliance on imported oil, in particular from the Middle East, over the next two decades, a potential victory as the U.S. has long looked to slash reliance on resources from a volatile region half a world away.

美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的预测发现，未来二十年美国将大幅减少对进口石油特别是来自中东地区的石油的依赖。这是一场潜在的胜利，长期以来美国一直在试图降低对来自一个和美国相隔半个地球之远的动荡地区能源的依赖。

China's story is precisely the opposite.

中国的情况恰好相反。

As the U.S. looks closer to home to satisfy energy demand, China is expected to remain heavily reliant on Middle East oil. Beijing is already carving business, diplomatic and potential military in-roads through the region in a bid to shore up ties with traditional U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia as well as emerging producers such as Iraq.

就在美国进一步依靠国内供应来满足能源需求之际，预计中国仍将严重依赖中东石油。中国政府正在从商业、外交甚至可能包括军事等角度对中东地区施加重要影响，加强同沙特阿拉伯等美国传统盟友以及伊拉克等新兴能源生产国的关系。

Additionally, China is looking to imports from the Middle East and elsewhere to compensate for gradually slowing growth of Iran imports and supply concerns related to potentially long-term political instability in Sudan.

此外，中国正在考虑从中东和其它地区进口石油，以弥补伊朗出口至中国的石油数量逐渐减少所造成的缺口，同时缓解中国因苏丹可能发生长期政治动荡而对其石油供给产生的担忧。

In short, analysts say, even as Beijing fears a growing reliance on Middle East crude, the rate of its economic growth leaves policy makers few options. As a result, China is settling in for a long-term economic and political presence in a region that for decades has overshadowed U.S. foreign policy.

总之，分析人士说，北京在担心对中东原油日趋依赖的同时，中国的经济增长速度却没有给决策者留下多少选择。这造成的结果就是，中国正在适应在这一地区构建长期经济和政治存在的现实。数十年来，中东地区的局势一直在影响美国的外交政策。

To be sure, China has taken some small steps to diversify its sources of energy away from Middle East oil. Crude imports from Venezuela, for example, more than doubled between 2009 and 2011 to about 231,000 barrels a day, according to China customs data. Additionally, China is aggressively working to exploit potentially vast deepwater reserves of oil and gas beneath the South China Sea while partnering with foreign energy companies to develop shale deposits in the country's west.

可以肯定的是，中国已经采取了一些小规模的措施促进能源来源的多样化。中国海关数据显示，来自委内瑞拉的进口原油数量在2009年至2011年间翻了一番还多，达到了每天约231,000桶。此外，中国正在准备积极开发南中国海(South China Sea, 中国称南海)海底的大量深水石油和天然气资源，同时与外国能源公司合作，开发中国西部的页岩资源。

About 50% of China＊s crude imports is now sourced from the Middle East, according to customs data, and analysts say it's unlikely that number will fall dramatically over the medium term.

海关数据显示，如今中国原油进口总量中约有50%来自中东地区。分析人士说，从中期看，这一比例不太可能大幅下降。

China is far more dependent on foreign energy sources than the U.S., but its ability to diversify is limited by its breakneck rate of growth, said Ben Simpfendorfer, managing director of Silk Road Associates, a Hong Kong-based economic consultancy.

总部设在香港的咨询机构丝路顾问公司(Silk Road Associates)的董事总经理贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)说，和美国相比，中国对国外能源的依赖程度要严重的多，然而高速增长的中国经济限制了中国实现能源来源多样化的能力。

You have a convergence of what are very powerful trends, whether it's China's rising demand, the U.S.'s declining demand, the rise of Iraq as a substitute to Iran. These are quite powerful trends that bind China to the Middle East, Mr. Simpfendorfer said.

贝哲民说，几种十分强大的趋势汇集到了一起，无论是中国需求与日俱增、美国需求不断回落，还是替代伊朗的伊拉克崛起，这些都是将中国与中东联系在一起的强大趋势。

According to projections by the International Energy Agency, China's net imports of oil could surpass 12 million barrels a day by 2035, up from around five million a day in 2010.

根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的预测，到2035年中国每天石油净进口量可能超过1,200万桶，而2010年的日进口量仅为500万桶左右。

A significant portion of those imports will continue to come from traditional oil suppliers such as Saudi Arabia as well as emerging producers like Iraq. China imported 1.01 million barrels a day of crude from Saudi Arabia in 2011, which made it by far China's largest foreign crude supplier.

中国的石油进口很大一部分将继续来自沙特阿拉伯等传统石油供应国以及伊拉克等新兴石油出产国。2011年，中国每天从沙特阿拉伯进口原油101万桶，这使得它成为到目前为止中国最大的原油供应国。

China's foothold is also deepening in Iraqi oil fields. State-owned China National Petroleum Corp. began operations at Iraq's Al-Ahdab oil field in 2011. Mr. Simpfendorfer and other analysts say if political stability in Iraq continues to improve, the country could emerge as an attractive alternative to Iran for Beijing.

此外，中国正不断巩固它在伊拉克油田中的立足点。国有的中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corp.)在伊拉克经营开发的阿赫代布油田(Al-Ahdab)已于2011年正式投产。贝哲民和其他分析师说，如果伊拉克的政局稳定状况持续改善，该国或许会成为对北京来说可替代伊朗的有吸引力的选择。

Oil-import growth from Iran could also level off as tensions with the West remain elevated, analysts say. In particular, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, which is eager to make deeper in-roads into the U.S., likely fears political hurdles from Washington if Beijing is seen to support the regime in Tehran.

分析人士说，由于伊朗与西方的关系仍然紧张，来自伊朗的石油进口增长可能也会趋于平稳。希望进一步打入美国市场的中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.)可能尤其担心，如果北京被认为支持德黑兰政权，华盛顿也许会对该公司在美国的扩张努力设置政治障碍。