双语财经新闻 第2期:石油时代仍在继续(1)

The Age of Oil continues; we need to deal with it. The upheaval1 in Egypt reminds us of lessons that, despite decades of warnings, Americans have consistently sidestepped2:. The United States and the rest of the world will depend on oil for the indefinite future; global oil markets remain hostage to political crises that cannot be predicted or controlled; and we have not taken the prudent steps that would reduce ——though not eliminate — our vulnerability to catastrophic oil interruptions.

石油时代仍在继续；我们需要加以应对。埃及的动荡提醒我们留意几十年来虽然蒈钟长鸣,但美国人一直在回避的一个教训:在不确定的未来，美国和世界其他 地方仍将依赖石油；全球石油市场仍然受制于政治危机，我们无法预料和控制；我 们没有采取谨慎的步骤减少我们对灾难性石油供应中断的脆弱性。

Just what Egypt’s crisis will do to oil markets is, as yet, unclear. Driven by cold weather and strong demand from developing countries, oil prices were already increasing before Egyptians took to the streets. Prices rose further on the turmoil3, but the gains could be short-lived. Egypt produces only about 700,000 barrels a day. That’s not much compared with global demand of nearly 90 million barrels daily (mbd). If all of Egypt’s production halted, it could be replaced because the world now has about 4 mbd of surplus4 capacity elsewhere.

埃及危机对石油市场的影响尚不清楚。在埃及人走上街头之前，寒冷天气以及 发展中国家的强劲需求已经推高了油价。局势动荡令油价进一步攀升，但是价格收 益可能是短命的。埃及的石油日产量仅为70万桶左右，而世界每天石油需求是9000 万桶。即使埃及的所有产量都中断，别的地方的产量很容易就会取而代之，因为世 界上大约还有每日400万桶过剩的生产能力。

A greater risk involves oil shipments. The Suez Canal and the SuMed pipeline (Suez-Mediterranean) together now move about 3 mbd between Asia and Europe. If these supplies were blocked, prices would almost certainly rise. But, again, accommodations would be made. Tankers would be rerouted5; shipments via other pipelines would increase.

更大的风险涉及石油海运。苏伊士运河和苏伊士一地中海管道现在加起来在 亚洲和欧洲之间每天输送300万桶石油。如果这些供应受阻，油价肯定会上扬。但是 可以调整运输方式:重新安排油轮线路,其他管道的输送量将会增加。

The real flash point would occur if a cascade of political turmoil cut production from major suppliers: Saudi Arabia (present output: 8.5 mbd), Kuwait (2.3 mbd), Iran (3.7 mbd), Iraq (2.4 mbd) or Algeria (1.3 mbd). This danger will remain no matter how the present crisis ends.

如果一系列政治动荡削弱了主要供应国的产量,才会有真正的危机。这些国家 包括:沙特阿拉伯（目前产量为每日850万桶)、科威特(230万桶)、伊朗(370万桶)、伊 拉克(240万桶)、阿尔及利亚(130万桶)。无论目前的危机如何结束,这一危险都会存在。