双语财经新闻 第36期:下一个世界工厂(1)
Ask any cab driver in Beijing, and they can tell you without hesitation what ails their country: China just has too many people, they will say with a sigh.
But economists disagree, and as the population reaches a turning point — the number of entrants to the workforce may peak this year the country is set for a difficult adjustment, with growing labour market pressures bearing on the workshop of the world.
但经济学家们却不同意这种观点。而且，随着中国人口总数达到拐点(新增劳 动力数量可能于今年见顶），这个世界工厂的劳动力市场将日益趋紧，中国势必将 面临一个艰难的调整。That is a transition that China’s neighbour, India set to overtake it as the world’s most populous3 nation in 2025 hopes to capitalise on, as entrants to its labour market will rise annually for the next 14 years.
面对这一转变，中国的邻邦印度希望自己能够从中获益。印度将在2025年超过 中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。今后的14年，印度的新增劳动力数量每年都将 增长。
But many analysts are questioning whether India with its overstretched, underdeveloped infrastructure and its poorly educated youth really has the capacity to take up the slack.
但考虑到该国欠发达、超负荷运转的基础设施，以及受教育程度较低的年轻 人,许多分析人士怀疑,印度是否真的有能力填补劳动力市场的缺口。“In all likelihood, India will not be able to benefit from this reduction in the growth of China’s labour force, simply because India is not ready to have a manufacturing sector as large as China’s,” says Laveesh Bhandari, founding director of Indicus Analytics, the New Delhi — based economics research house. “Infrastructure is limited and too expensive, and the human capital base is not deep enough.w
新德里经济研究机构Indicus Analytics的创始董事拉维什?班达里表示：“印度 十有八九无法从中国劳动力增长减缓中受益，这不过是因为，印度还没有为建立像 中国那样庞大的制造业做好准备。这里的基础设施有限且过于昂贵，人力资本基础 也不够雄厚。”China, where the total workforce is due to start falling by about 2016, is already showing symptoms of a tightening labour market, with the country rocked this summer by a spate of labour disputes and strikes, by staff demanding higher wages.
到2016年左右，中国的劳动力总数将开始下降。中国目前巳显现出劳动力市场 日益趋紧的征兆。今年夏季，要求加薪的工人们造成了一连串劳资纠纷和罢工事 件，震撼了中国各地。The unrest has fuelled debate about whether China has reached its “Lewis turning point”，named after Nobel laureate Arthur Lewis, who theorised that a developing economy’s wages will rise sharply once labour demand from industry has exhausted available surplus4 labour from the agricultural sector.
这些动荡促使人们就中国是否已进人“刘易斯拐点”展开了争论。这一概念是以诺贝尔经济学奖得主阿瑟?刘易斯名字命名的，他认为,一旦某个发展中经济体 的工业部门的劳动力需求彻底消化掉来自农业部门的剩余劳动力供应，该经济体 的工资水平就将大幅上升。Some economists believe that China reached this tipping point in 2004, when manufacturers in the Pearl River Delta reported labour shortages although pressures eased temporarily during the global financial crisis when demand for Chinese exports fell.
一些经济学家认为,中国在2004年就已进入这个拐点，当时珠江三角洲的制造 业企业出现了劳动力短缺现象——尽管在全球金融危机期间，当外界对中国出口 的需求下滑之时,短缺压力暂时得到了缓解。But this year, the manufacturing hubs of Guangzhou and Dongguan have both raised their minimum wages, and many companies are expanding leisure activities and improving food at their factory compounds in order to boost worker retention.
但今年,广州和东莞这两个制造业中心都上调了最低工资;许多企业则在工业 园区内增加休闲活动、改善伙食,以降低工人流失率。Companies such as Foxconn, the electronics maker, have also begun moving inland closer to the areas where their workers hail from hoping to make it easier to gain new recruits, and thereby forcing local factories to raise their wages to compete.
此外，电子产品制造商富士康等企业还着手向内陆地区迁移，靠近劳动力的来 源地，希望借此能够更容易招到人。这进而又迫使当地工厂提髙工资水平,以应对 竞争。“The consensus is that China is probably approaching the Lewis turning point soon, based on recent developments in population growth and also the one-child policy,” says Jiang Tingsong, senior economist at the Centre for International Economics in Australia.
澳大利亚国际经济中心髙级经济学家蒋庭松表示：“人们一致认为，中国可能 很快就将进入刘易斯拐点。这一共识基于人口增长的新动向以及独生子女政策。”
