全球贸易将迎来第五年低速增长

The global economy will see its fifth consecutive year of below-par growth in International trade this year, marking its worst period since the 1980s, according to the World Trade Organisation.

据世界贸易组织(WTO)预测，今年全球经济将遭遇连续第五年国际贸易增长低于趋势线，这将是自上世纪80年代以来最糟糕的时期。

In forecasts released yesterday the WTO said it expected the volume of international trade to grow by just 2.8 per cent this year, in line with 2015. But it said the forecast was laden with downside risks and highlighted an unusual five-year run of trade growing both below 3 per cent and in line with the broader global economy.

在昨日发布的预测中，WTO表示，预计今年国际贸易量将仅增长2.8%，与2015年的增幅相同。但该组织表示，这一预测充斥下行风险，并着重指出，贸易量增长连续五年低于3%水平、且与全球经济整体增长大致同步的情况是不寻常的。

“Such a long, uninterrupted spell of slow but positive trade growth is unprecedented,” WTO economists wrote.

“这样一段漫长、不间断、缓慢但保持正数的贸易增长是前所未有的，”WTO的经济学家们写道。

Yesterday’s forecast marks the first time in recent years that the WTO has not predicted a bounce in global trade. It is also emblematic of broader anxieties about the global economy, with the International Monetary Fund widely expected to downgrade its 3.4 per cent forecast for global growth next week when central bankers and finance ministers go to Washington for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

昨日的预测标志着WTO近年来首次没有预测全球贸易出现反弹。它也体现了各方对全球经济的整体忧虑。目前人们普遍预期，下周各国央行行长和财长汇聚华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)春季会议时，IMF将下调其对今年全球经济增长3.4%的预测。

To many economists the unusual patterns in international trade in recent years are just one example of how traditional economic relationships have been tested or broken since the 2008 global financial crisis.

对许多经济学家来说，近年国际贸易的异常模式，只是2008年全球金融危机爆发以来传统经贸关系受到考验或者已经破裂的一个例子。

For most of the past three decades world trade has grown at twice the rate of global GDP as globalisation has accelerated thanks to the emergence of major players such as China and other factors like the plummeting cost of transporting goods.

过去30年的大部分时间里，随着全球化加快，世界贸易增长速度至少两倍于全球GDP增速，得益于中国等贸易大国的崛起以及其它因素，如货运成本大幅下降。

Global trade collapsed in 2009 as the effects of the crisis reverberated through the world economy, before bouncing back in 2010. But since then the volume of goods shipped has been growing only slowly and last year marked the first time since the crisis that it contracted in value terms, though that was partly thanks to a surge in the dollar and falling commodity prices.

随着金融危机的余波冲击整个世界经济，全球贸易曾在2009年崩溃，随即在2010年出现反弹。但是，自那以来货运量只是缓慢增长，而按价值计算，去年全球贸易出现金融危机以来首次萎缩，尽管这在一定程度上是由于美元飙升和大宗商品价格下跌。

The WTO said that by its calculations the value of world trade in current dollar terms last year fell by 13 per cent to $16.5tn from $19tn in 2014.

WTO称，根据它的计算，去年世界贸易的总价值（按当前美元币值计算）下降13%，从2014年的19万亿美元降至16.5万亿美元。

According to Robert Koopman, WTO chief economist, part of the problem has been a series of crises that has seen demand collapse in a succession of regions. Asian economies, for example, have helped prop up global trade since the 2008 crisis. But last year as China cooled its contribution fell markedly.

WTO首席经济学家罗伯特•库普曼(Robert Koopman)称，一部分问题是一系列危机导致一个又一个地区需求崩溃。例如，亚洲经济体在2008年爆发危机后帮助支撑了全球贸易。但随着中国经济降温，去年亚洲的贡献显著下降。

Roberto Azevedo, the WTO’s director-general, said the recovery in trade was being hurt in part by a “creeping protectionism” as countries slowly erected new trade barriers.

WTO总干事罗伯托•阿泽维多(Roberto Azevedo)表示，贸易复苏在一定程度上受到“爬行保护主义”的影响，各方在缓慢设置新的贸易壁垒。

But those barriers remain far less significant than ones set up in the wake of previous crises and Mr Koopman said the biggest factor in the slowdown was the stagnant demand exacerbated by the slow return of investment.

但是，与以往危机过后的局面相比，这些障碍仍然远远没有那么严重。库普曼表示，贸易放缓的最大因素是需求停滞，而投资复苏缓慢加剧了问题。