美国智库为台湾防卫献计划策

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fears of war between Taiwan and China have eased in recent years, but the growing gap in their military capabilities has prompted a U.S. think tank to lay out a radical new approach in how Taiwan could defend itself if China invaded, relying less on conventional forces and more on guerrilla-style tactics and cyberwarfare.

华盛顿（美联社）- 近些年来台湾与中国之间的战争担忧在逐渐减少，然而他们间的军事实力的鸿沟促使美国智库设计了一套全新的防御中国入侵的方案，更少的依赖传统军力，更多的使用游击式战术和网络战。

The nongovernment Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is wading into delicate territory. Relations have between democratic Taiwan and communist-governed China have improved as they have forged economic agreements —a development welcomed by the United States.

非政府智库“战略暨预算评估中心”涉入的是一个微妙的领域。皿煮的台湾与共产主义管治的中国之间的关系正在得到改善，双方在缔结各种经济协议，美国对这些进展是欢迎的。

Washington, however, remains obligated by U.S. law to provide Taiwan the means to defend itself. U.S. lawmakers have accused the Obama administration of refusing to sell Taiwan new fighter jets and submarines for fear of angering Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the self-governing island.

不过华盛顿有义务根据美国法律向台湾提供自卫的手段。美国国会指责奥巴马政府因担心惹恼声称拥有这个自治岛屿主权的北京而拒绝向台湾出售新战机和潜艇。

Congress last week approved the possible sale of four U.S. frigates to Taiwan, drawing Chinese criticism, but Taiwan shows growing willingness to develop its own hardware. On Tuesday, it launched a stealthy, missile-launching corvette, the first of ship of its kind produced by Taiwan.

国会上周批准可以向台湾销售四艘驱逐舰，引来了中国的批评，而台湾则有意向更多的自行开发本土军事硬件。在本周二，台湾推出了一款隐身导弹快船，这是同类舰船的第一艘台湾制造。

But China's rapid military modernization has exposed a widening gulf between its forces and those on Taiwan, which spent $10.8 billion on its defense in 2013. According to a U.S. Defense Department estimate, China's military spending that year was $145 billion.

然而与随着中国飞快的军事现代化，与台湾间的军力鸿沟已经愈拉愈大。台湾2013年的防卫开支是108亿美元，而据美国国防部估计，中国同年度的军事开支为1450亿美元。

"With the resource gap approaching fourteen-to-one, even if Taiwan were to massively increase its defense budget, it would not reverse the cumulative advantages the PRC has accrued over the past two decades," said the center's report, released this week. PRC stands for the communist-governed People's Republic of China.

“当资金差额达到14比1时，无论台湾如何大幅增加防卫预算，都无力反转PRC在过去的几十年里累积的优势，”该中心本周发布的报告称。PRC是共产管治的中华人民共和国的缩写。

A U.S. congressional advisory panel reported last month that China has about 2,100 combat aircraft and 280 naval ships available for a Taiwan conflict, and more 1,100 short-range ballistic missiles that could incapacitate Taiwan's air force in the early hours of a conflict. Taiwan has about 410 combat aircraft and 90 naval combat ships.

美国国会的一个顾问小组上月的一份报告称中国在台海冲突中可投入2100架战机、280艘海军舰艇，超过1100枚短程弹道导弹可以在冲突开始的几个小时内瘫痪台湾空军。台湾有大约410架战机和90艘海军舰艇。

The center advocates an "asymmetric approach," with Taiwan using lighter forces to counter rather than match China's strengths. While Taiwan increasingly emphasizes such tactics, its military modernization plan still calls for big, conventional acquisitions, the report says.

该中心建议使用“非对称手段”，台湾应使用轻巧的军力去反击而非试图与中国比肩抗衡。报告称虽然台湾越来越重视这种战术，其军事现代化计划仍然偏向采购大型常规武备。

For a fraction of the cost of building eight large diesel submarines that Taiwan is also planning, it could produce a fleet of 42 "midget submarines" similar in size to craft that North Korea and Iran have, the report says. These submarines could provide warning and targeting data for anti-ship cruise missiles deployed on mobile launchers resembling trucks hauling shipping containers.

报告称台湾计划以比建造8艘大型柴油潜艇少的多的费用建造一只42艘“迷你潜艇”组成的编队，其大小与朝鲜和伊朗的类似。这些潜艇可以向布置在卡车集装箱上的移动式巡航导弹提供预警和目标数据。

To combat Chinese fighter planes, the report proposes "guerrilla" air defense, using hundreds of surface-to-air missiles — a tactic it says proved effective for North Vietnam against the United States during the Vietnam War. And if Chinese forces make it on land, guerrilla tactics to harass the occupying forces would slow their advance toward Taipei. It says cyberwar against Chinese battle networks would also be one of Taiwan's viable deterrents and "cost-imposing strategies."

至于对抗中国战机，报告则建议采用“游击式”防空，使用数以百计的地对空导弹，这是在越战中北越对抗美国的、被证明是有效的战术。当中国军队登陆后，游击袭扰战术可以延滞登岛部队向台北推进。报告称对中国的战区网络实施网络战也是一项可行的杀手锏和“代价倍增战略“。

The report's authors say asymmetric approaches toward defense would reduce Taiwanese dependence on U.S. armaments, and should also appeal to other neighbors concerned over China's military buildup.

报告的作者称，使用非对称手段进行防御可以降低台湾对美国军备的依赖，对其他担忧中国军事实力的邻国也具有吸引力。

Nations like Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia "have territorial disputes with China and face many of the same challenges responding to the rapid Chinese military modernization looming over Taiwan," the report says.

报告称像越南、菲律宾和印尼等国”与中国有领土纠纷，而且同样面对中国快速现代化的军事压力。