不要以经济后果吓唬苏格兰人

Last week, financial markets began to take seriously the possibility that Scotland might vote Yes to independence. A constitutional change would raise the possibility of three types of market risk: currency risk, government credit risk and the credit risk associated with financial institutions.

上周，金融市场开始认真考虑苏格兰公投结果支持独立的可能性。苏格兰身份的改变可能导致三类市场风险：货币风险，政府信用风险，与金融机构有关的信用风险。

The position on currency is today a stand-off. The Scottish government has said it will negotiate a currency union and the Westminster government has said it will not enter such negotiation. But Edinburgh cannot unilaterally establish a currency union and the Westminster government cannot unilaterally determine Scotland’s currency. Plainly there must be agreement. However, might this agreement leave people who had made deposits or loans in sterling at risk of being repaid in Scots bawbees of doubtful value?

货币问题目前陷入了僵局。苏格兰政府已表示，将通过谈判与英国其余地区建立货币联盟，而英国政府已放话将不会参加这样的谈判。但苏格兰政府无法单方面建立货币联盟，英国政府也无法单方面决定苏格兰采用何种货币。显然双方必须达成协议。然而，这份协议有没有可能会让以英镑存款或放贷的人面临这样的风险：交出去的是英镑，收回来的却是大把大把价值有疑问的苏格兰半便士(bawbee)？

As the eurozone discovered, establishing a currency union is easy, operating one is hard and unwinding one is hard. You can pass legislation saying all contracts made in drachmas are now payable in euros; but legislation saying contracts made in euros are now payable in drachmas is another matter. To which contracts does the latter apply? However the question is resolved, the answer will hurt many businesses and individuals, and occupy the courts.

如欧元区所发现的那样，货币联盟是建立起来容易，管理和解散难。你可以立法，宣布所有以德拉克马（drachma，希腊在加入欧元区之前使用的货币——译者注）为货币单位订立的合同如今可用欧元支付；但立法宣布以欧元订立的合同现在可用德拉克马支付就是另一回事了。后一种安排适用于哪些合同？无论这个问题得出何种答案，都将伤及不少企业和个人的利益，并导致大量法律诉讼。

But there is a simple answer in the Scottish case, which is that whatever happens after a new currency is adopted, existing contracts in sterling remain in sterling. This means there is no currency risk ahead of a change. The same answer is not possible for Greece because the point of a Grexit would be to enable the country to default on its debts and effect a large devaluation, a course unnecessary and unwise for Scotland.

但就苏格兰的情况而言，有一个简单的答案，那就是无论采用新货币后发生什么，既有的以英镑订立的合同仍将以英镑结算。这意味着，在苏格兰变更身份前不会存在货币风险。同样的答案不可能适用于希腊，原因是希腊退出欧元区的意义，就在于能对其债务违约和使其货币大幅贬值，这种做法对苏格兰而言则既无必要也不明智。

British government stocks tumbled last week when opinion polls showed the campaigns neck and neck – perhaps because markets did not know what to make of the news, perhaps because of the Scottish government’s threat to renege on its share of UK debt. But, even if the Scots did so, this would add less than 10 per cent to the debt servicing cost of the rest of the UK – which, at about 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product, is hardly unaffordable.

上周民调显示，苏格兰支持和不支持独立的人数旗鼓相当，英国国债随之暴跌。这或许是因为市场不知如何理解这个消息，原因或许是苏格兰政府威胁不偿还自己承担的那份英国国债。但即便苏格兰人真的这样干了，也只不过会让英国其余地区的偿债成本增加不到10%——相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的约2.5%——这并不是无法负担的。

There is little justification for believing a Scottish exit, on whatever terms, should affect the credit rating of the remaining UK: what repudiation would do to Scotland’s credit rating is a different matter. It is one thing to start life as a new country debt free, another to do so because you have just reneged on a pro rata share of UK debt of £100bn.

我们几乎找不到什么理由认为，苏格兰独立（无论以何种条件独立）会影响英国其余地区的信用评级；至于赖债会对苏格兰的信用评级造成何种影响，那就是另一回事了。作为一个新国家，以无债务负担的状态开始新生活是一回事，靠拒不偿还按比例应承担的1000亿英镑英国国债而达到这种状态，则是另一回事。

The third risk associated with independence is a change in the credit risk attached to financial institutions. Banks and other companies can operate in the EU through branches of their home business, or by establishing local subsidiaries in other member states. Sweden’s Handelsbanken uses branches; the Spanish Santander takes deposits in Scotland into its English subsidiary. If a bank fails, the saver has a claim on the appropriate deposit protection scheme – that of the country in which the regulated entity is located. As in Santander’s case, that might be neither the country where you made the deposit nor the one where the bank’s head office is located.

伴随独立出现的第三类风险是，金融机构相关信用风险的改变。银行和其他企业可通过开设隶属于母国业务的分支机构、或通过在欧盟(EU)其他成员国设立当地子公司，来在欧盟市场运营。瑞典Handelsbanken银行采用的是开设分行的办法；西班牙桑坦德银行(Santander)则是将其在苏格兰吸收的存款转至在英格兰的子公司。如果银行倒闭，储户就对相应的存款保险机制——受监管实体所在国家的存款保险机制——拥有求偿权。就桑坦德银行的例子而言，这个“国家”可能既不是储户存款时所在的国家，也不是该行总部所在的国家。

The “lender of last resort” facility provides liquidity support if there is a run on a bank. Last week’s interrogation of Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, at Westminster’s Treasury select committee confused that issue with a quite separate one: the reserves needed to sustain a currency peg; and the resources needed to provide liquidity support to the banking system. The scale of modern speculative capital flows is such that there is probably no currency reserve large enough to sustain the price of a clearly overvalued currency. Meanwhile, the availability of liquidity support to solvent institutions depends not on the reserves available but on the credit rating of the provider of such support – whether another bank, a government or a central bank.

“最后贷款人”安排会在银行遭遇挤兑时提供流动性支持。上周英国央行(BoE)行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)在英国议会下院财政特别委员会(Treasury select committee)接受质询时，混淆了两个截然不同的问题：维持货币挂钩所需的外汇储备；向银行业体系提供流动性支持所需的资源。当代投机资金流的规模极其庞大，可能没有任何一个国家的外汇储备大到足以维持一种明显被高估的货币的币值。另一方面，能否向有偿付能力的金融机构提供流动性支持并非取决于有多少外汇储备，而是取决于提供者（无论是另一家银行，还是政府或央行）的信用评级。

But since the global financial crisis the term “lender of last resort” has routinely been used in wider and ill defined sense: to identify who (if anyone) will make whole the creditors of any failed financial institution or recapitalise any bank, wherever based, no longer able to raise equity from its shareholders. The only sensible answer – for Scotland and perhaps for other countries – is “not us”.

但自全球金融危机爆发以来，“最后贷款人”这个词常常应用在更广的范围内，定义也往往比较模糊：可指替任何倒闭的金融机构向债主偿债的人，或向任何无法再从股东那里筹集股本的银行（无论其总部位于何处）注资的人——假如存在这样的人的话。唯一明智的回答是，这个词指的“不是我们”——对苏格兰而言是如此，或许对其他国家而言也是如此。

The present debate is demeaned by posturing and scaremongering on both sides. Scotland has prospered as part of a United Kingdom and could prosper as an independent country. Which course is more appropriate is a question of identity and values, not economics. And whatever outcome is declared on Friday morning, sensible people will work together to ensure that outcome produces the best possible economic result.

当前的辩论已沦为辩论双方摆姿态和危言耸听的游戏。苏格兰作为英国的一部分实现了繁荣，作为一个独立国家也可实现繁荣。选择哪条道路更合适，是一个身份认同和价值观问题，而非经济问题。而且，无论周五早上宣布的公投结果如何，明智之士都会共同努力，确保这一结果能产生尽可能好的经济结果。