牵一发动全身 各方应力避伊拉克分裂

After weeks of alarm over the lightning advance of a brutal, transnational jihadi group in Iraq, a nation fearing for its very existence has been granted some short-term relief.

在连续几周被一个野蛮的跨国圣战组织的闪电般军事推进所震惊之后，担心国家无法存续下去的伊拉克得到了一点喘息空间。

Stepping back into Iraq, the US has ramped up air strikes against the jihadis of the self-styled Islamic State. For now at least, the oil-rich northern Kurdish region’s capital of Erbil appears secure and the group known as Isis has been driven out of the strategic Mosul dam.

美国重返伊拉克，加大了对自称“伊斯兰国”（Islamic State，简称IS）的圣战组织的空中打击。至少就眼下而言，伊拉克北部石油储量丰富的库尔德地区的首府埃尔比勒(Erbil)似乎是安全的，这个又被称为“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的极端武装已被逐出具有战略重要性的摩苏尔水坝。

Equally important has been the political change in Baghdad, where Nouri al-Maliki, the autocratic Shia prime minister, has agreed to withdraw his candidacy for a third term in office. He has been replaced by Haidar al-Abadi, a pragmatic, though untested Shia politician who is considered more acceptable to the country’s Kurdish and Sunni minorities.

同样重要的是巴格达的政治变革。威权的什叶派总理努里•马利基(Nouri al-Maliki)已同意放弃竞逐第三个任期。接替他的海德尔•阿巴迪(Haidar al-Abadi)是一个务实（尽管从未经受过考验）的什叶派政治人物，被视为更能让伊拉克的库尔德和逊尼派少数族群接受。

Significant though these gains might be, however, they provide no guarantee that Iraq will stop tearing itself apart. The break-up of one of the Middle East’s most important nations seems less inevitable than a few weeks ago, but Iraq’s territorial integrity is by no means assured. To defeat Isis and set Iraq on the path to reconciliation requires difficult choices from all religious and ethnic groups. It also demands concerted engagement by the US, which is in a position to trade security assistance for political concessions.

不过，尽管这些进展可能是重大的，但它们并不能保证伊拉克将就此停止解体。中东最重要国家之一的解体，现在看起来不像几周前那么不可避免，但伊拉克的领土完整绝非板上钉钉。要击败ISIS、使伊拉克走上民族和解的道路，需要各个宗教和族裔群体作出艰难的选择，需要美国协调一致的参与。美国所处的位置使其能够以安全援助为条件，换取政治让步。

In pushing aside Mr Maliki, the US benefited from support from Iran as well as Iraq’s top Shia clerics. Tehran will continue to have the most influence with Shia parties but the US is the only country with sufficient leverage over Iraq’s three main communities. It will have to supplement its critical military role with a bolstered diplomatic intervention.

在排挤掉马利基的过程中，美国得到伊拉克什叶派高层宗教人士以及伊朗的支持。德黑兰将继续对什叶派政党拥有最大影响力，但美国是唯一对伊拉克三大群体都有足够影响力的国家。它必须以更大力度的外交干预来补充其至关重要的军事作用。

Mr Maliki’s sectarian agenda and his concentration of authority in the prime minister’s office was a big contributor to the alienation of the Sunni and the decision by tribal leaders to allow, if not assist, Isis’s military campaign. The Shia leader’s monopolisation of power also drove the Kurds increasingly to question whether their northern semi-autonomous enclave should remain part of Iraq. Seizing on the Isis advances, Kurdish leaders have captured the disputed oil-rich city of Kirkuk and called for a referendum on independence.

马利基的教派主义议程，以及他将权力集中于总理办公室的做法，在很大程度上疏远了逊尼派，并导致部族首领放任（即便没有协助）ISIS的军事行动。什叶派领导人的权力垄断，还导致库尔德人越来越怀疑他们在北部的半自治地盘应不应该留在伊拉克的版图内。借ISIS推进之机，库尔德武装攻占了有争议的石油重镇基尔库克(Kirkuk)，库尔德领导人还呼吁举行独立公投。

But while the exit of Mr Maliki was a necessary step to reverse Iraq’s disintegration, his successor faces a monumental task. He needs sufficient consensus to form a government in the short term, and a more fundamental contract among the main communities to secure the country’s longer-term survival.

不过，尽管马利基的下台是扭转伊拉克解体趋势的一个必要步骤，但他的继任者面临艰巨的任务。这位继任者需要凝聚足够共识，在短期内组成一个政府，然后在主要群体之间达成一项更为根本的契约，以确保国家的长期存续。

Iraq will have to move towards a federal system but the quest for an agreement on expanded powers for the regions cannot hold up the formation of a new government. Reforming a corrupt and sectarian security apparatus that has become an instrument of Sunni repression will not be achieved overnight. Nor will a resolution of the Kurds’ oil disputes with Baghdad.

伊拉克将不得不走向联邦制，但寻求就扩大地方权力达成协议的努力，不能妨碍新政府的组成。伊拉克安全系统近年来已变成一件压迫逊尼派的工具；改革这样一个腐败、教派主义的安全系统，不可能在一夜间完成。解决库尔德人与巴格达之间的石油纠纷也不会一蹴而就。

The most immediate challenge for Mr Abadi is to turn Sunni tribes against Isis and stall the Kurds’ drive towards independence. This might be achieved by agreeing to security reforms under American guidance and committing to a more genuine dialogue with the Kurds. Both Sunni and Kurds should give the new prime minister time and not hold up the formation of a government until their demands are met.

阿巴迪面对的最紧迫挑战是，争取让逊尼派部族反对ISIS，同时阻止库尔德人的独立努力。这或许可以通过同意在美国指导下改革安全系统和承诺与库尔德人展开更真诚的对话来实现。无论是逊尼派还是库尔德人，都应给予新总理时间，而不是以自己的诉求为要挟，阻止新政府的组成。

To raise the pressure for compromise, the US should enlist the support of regional allies such as Saudi Arabia, which has influence with the Sunni tribes, and Turkey which has developed close economic ties with the Kurds. These Sunni states should realise that they too are threatened by Isis’s savagery. And they must recognise that US military support can only be effective if Iraqi politics becomes more inclusive.

为了加大要求各方达成妥协的压力，美国应该争取地区盟友如沙特阿拉伯（对逊尼派部族具有影响力）和土耳其（与库尔德人发展了密切的经济联系）的支持。这些逊尼派国家应该认识到，它们也受到ISIS野蛮行径的威胁。它们还必须认识到，只有在伊拉克的政治变得更加包容的情况下，美国的军事支持才能有效。