全球时事:伊拉克大选血雨腥风

THE chants that rose from a furious crowd ofmourners in the city of Kirkuk on April 24th were hardly subtle. “Death to Maliki!” cried some among the throng of thousands, referring to Iraq’s primeminister, Nuri al-Maliki. “Revenge against the agents of Iran!” chimed others,underscoring the bitterness with which the Sunni Arabs who dominate one side ofthe city regard the Shia-led government in Baghdad. The day before, securityforces had shot dead at least 27 Sunni protesters in Hawija, a town half an hour’sdrive to the west.

4月24日，在基尔库克，一群愤怒送葬者不断重复呼喊，一片轰动。成千上万的人聚集，有些人喊道“马利基去死！”，直指伊拉克总理努里·马利基。“报复这个伊朗人的代理！”另外一些人遥相呼应道，喊出了在什叶派主导的巴格达政府统治下，逊尼派阿拉伯人的辛酸。逊尼派阿拉伯人主宰着半个基尔库克。前一天，安全部队在Hawija开枪打死了至少27名逊尼派示威人士。Hawija是基尔库克以西的一个小镇，相距半小时的车程。

The killings marked the sharpest rise in sectariantension in recent months, as Sunnis across a swathe of northern and westernIraq mounted protests against Mr Maliki’s government. His security men hadhitherto responded with wary restraint. However, provoked by the killing of asoldier in Hawija on April 19th, they had besieged a sit-in by several hundredSunnis. Despite efforts by Sunni politicians to negotiate an end to it, troopsstormed in at dawn on April 23rd. An army statement said the demonstrators hadbeen “infiltrated by Baathist and al-Qaeda elements”. Besides, three soldiershad been killed.

最近几个月以来，伊拉克北部和西部的一部分逊尼派发起了对马利基政府的抗议，而这场杀戮标志着宗派紧张局势的严重升级。他的保安人员自此非常警惕。然而，4月19日Hawija一名士兵被杀，从而招致数百逊尼派静坐围攻。尽管逊尼派政治势力试图通过谈判解决问题，部队于4月23日清晨冲进来。军方声明称，示威者被“复兴党和基地组织（al-Qaeda）渗透”。此外，三名士兵被打死。

This has precipitated the biggest crisis in Iraqsince American troops left in December 2011. Sunni protesters in the provincesof Anbar and Nineveh declared a general strike amid an outburst of clashes witharmy and police that have so far left scores more dead. Two Sunni members of MrMaliki’s cabinet resigned, raising to four the number of Sunni ministers toabandon the government since March 1st, while Sunni-dominated political partiessaid they would boycott the parliament.

此次事件迅速成为自美国军队2011年12月撤出伊拉克以来最大的一次危机。在安巴尔省和尼尼微省的逊尼派抗议者卷入与军队和警察的冲突中，并宣布大罢工，到目前为止，冲突已经导致数十人丧生。马利基内阁两名逊尼派成员辞职，自此，3月1日以来，离开政府的逊尼派部长人数增加到4个。当时逊尼派占主导的政党纷纷表示，他们将抵制议会。

More ominously still, some sheikhs of Sunni tribesjoined religious figures to declare that a “red line” had been eforth, they warned in widely circulated videos, activists would be armedand ready to hit back against the army. Among the myriad Sunni protest groups,several suggested a shift towards the tactics of al-Qaeda, which has beenblamed for sporadic bombing attacks not only on Shias but also on fellow Sunnistarred as “collaborators” with the government in Baghdad. The spectre looms ofIraq following the path of Syria, where the regime’s brutality turned apeaceful uprising into an armed and increasingly sectarian revolt.

更为不祥的是，一些逊尼派部落酋长跟宗教人士一起宣称，事情已经超出他们的“底线”。此后，他们通过广为流传的视频警告说，活动分子将配备武装，并准备对军队进行回击。在错综复杂的逊尼派抗议团体中，有些建议向基地组织的战术进行转变，基地组织被指为零星爆炸袭击事件的元凶，这些袭击不仅针对什叶派，还包括被指为巴格拉政府的“合作者”的逊尼派人士。大家担心伊拉克将步叙利亚之后尘——叙利亚政权的暴行使得和平起义演变成日益宗派化的武装反叛。

With the departure of Sunni ministers and anger onSunni streets, Iraq’s already shaky political apparatus may find it hard tostem a slide into general violence. Mr Maliki has ordered an inquiry into theHawija incident, chaired by Saleh al-Mutlaq, one of the few top Sunnipoliticians with whom he is still on talking terms. But the prime minister,despite the reflexive backing he may count on from Shias, who make up some 60%of Iraq’s population, has lately been weakened by a boycott of his governmentby Kurdish ministers and members of his federal parliament, as well as bysniping from Shia politicians.

随着逊尼派部长离职以及逊尼派街道上的愤怒升级，伊拉克原本摇摇欲坠的政治机构可能很难阻止局势发展成为大规模暴力。马利基已下令由萨利赫·穆特拉克领导调查Hawija事件。穆特拉克是马利基仍保持对话的少数几个高级逊尼派政客之一。尽管首相马利基可能指望什叶派的支持——什叶派约占伊拉克人口的60％，但库尔德部长们以及马利基的联邦议会成员最近对其政府的抵制，以及什叶派政治家的抨击，使其力量削弱不少。

The outcome of elections held in 12 of Iraq’s 18provinces on April 20th may weaken him more; polls were postponed in thelargely Sunni, Kurdish or mixed provinces. During the run-up the assassinationof at least 14 candidates, all Sunnis, further dampened Sunni enthusiasm forvoting, but even in the quieter Shia-dominated parts of Iraq, the turnout waslow.

4月20日在伊拉克18个省份中的12个省举行了选举，其结果可能进一步削弱他的势力；逊尼派、库尔德人占大多数或是两者兼有的几个省份推迟了投票。在大选酝酿期间，至少有14名候选人被暗杀，而且全部都是逊尼派，这进一步打击逊尼派的投票热情，但即使在较为平静的什叶派占主导地位的地区，投票率也很低。

Full results are not yet in, but early estimatessuggest a sharp decline in seats for Mr Maliki’s State of Law coalition andperhaps a loss of its outright majority of provincial-council seats. Mr Malikilooks increasingly beleaguered, not just among Sunnis, but among fellow Shias,too.

所有统计结果尚未揭晓，但早期的估计表明，马利基的国家法律联盟所占席位急剧减少，甚至可能失去其占绝对多数的省级议会席位。马利基看起来逐渐陷入困境，不仅是在逊尼派，在什叶派中间也是如此。