默克尔愿为世界安定付出代价

Vladimir Putin spent five years in the former communist German Democratic Republic in the 1980s as an intelligence officer for the Soviet KGB. He prides himself on his understanding of Germany.

上世纪80年代，身为苏联克格勃(KGB)情报官的弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)曾在前社会主义国家——民主德国(German Democratic Republic，即东德)待了5年。他为自己对德国的了解而自豪。

Yet the Russian president badly miscalculated the mood and determination of Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, over the current crisis in Ukraine. His experience was obviously out of date.

然而，作为俄罗斯总统的他严重误判了德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)在当前乌克兰危机上的态度和决心。他的经验明显已经过时。

When the 28 EU member states agreed to impose tougher sanctions on Russia last month because of Moscow’s support for armed separatists in the Ukrainian civil war, the decision was greeted with shock in the Kremlin. Mr Putin had expected the German chancellor to resist taking any action that would seriously affect German exporters.

上月，因莫斯科在乌克兰内战中支持武装分裂分子，欧盟(EU)28个成员国一致同意，对俄罗斯采取更严厉的制裁。这个决议让克里姆林宫震惊。普京原以为默克尔会反对采取任何严重影响德国出口商的行动。

He was wrong. The sanctions package was driven by Berlin. Central to German policy, led Ms Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, foreign minister, was determination to maintain a united European front.

他错了。欧盟的一揽子制裁方案正是由德国推动的。德国政策的核心，引导默克尔和德国外长弗兰克-沃尔特•施泰因迈尔(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)行动的，是维持欧洲统一阵线的决心。

“Putin is an old-style KGB operator. He sees everything as a zero-sum game. He keeps different options open and tries to divide the EU and the west through bilateral contacts and sectoral contacts with business,” says Andreas Schockenhoff, deputy chairman of Ms Merkel’s Christian Democrats in the German Bundestag.

“普京有着老派克格勃的作风。他认为一切事情都是零和游戏。他总是保留不同的选择，并试图通过双边往来和行业性的商业来往分裂欧盟和西方，”默克尔领导的基民盟(Christian Democrats)的副主席安德烈亚斯•朔肯霍夫(Andreas Schockenhoff)在德国联邦议院(Bundestag)表示。

“The chancellor spent a huge amount of time and energy to get a united European position and bring business on board.”

“总理花了大量时间和精力促成欧洲的统一立场，让事情走上正轨。”

Mr Putin is not the first global leader to misread Ms Merkel. David Cameron, UK prime minister, did the same when he sought her backing to block the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg as the next EU commission president. But Mr Putin’s miscalculation is potentially far more serious.

在世界领导人中，普京不是第一个误读默克尔的。英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)曾为阻止卢森堡前首相让-克洛德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)出任下届欧盟委员会(EU commission)主席而寻求默克尔的支持，他也错看了默克尔。但是普京误判的后果可能要严重得多。

His actions in Ukraine, since the Russian annexation of Crimea in March, have alienated the one European leader capable of finding a diplomatic solution. He dug himself into a hole without an exit strategy.

在俄罗斯于今年3月吞并克里米亚后，普京在乌克兰事务上的所作所为，导致唯一有能力找到外交解决方案的欧洲领导人与他疏远了。普京让自己陷入了一个没有出路的困境。

Yet the signals from Berlin have been there for months. Ever since Mr Putin’s return to power as president in 2012, Ms Merkel has shown her unhappiness at the authoritarian and nationalist drift in the Kremlin. She was appalled by Russia’s seizure of Crimea, unilaterally altering an agreed international border.

然而柏林方面其实从数月前就开始释放信号了。自2012年普京重返总统宝座以来，默克尔对克里姆林宫转向威权和民族主义就表露了自己的不满。俄罗斯夺取克里米亚，单方面改变公认的国际边界的行为让默克尔震惊。

She finally lost trust in Mr Putin, according to senior officials, because she believed he lied to her repeatedly (they have had more than 30 telephone calls) about Russia’s involvement and its willingness to restrain the separatists. Trust matters a lot to the chancellor.

根据一些高官的说法，默克尔最终失去了对普京的信任，因为在俄方插手乌克兰事务及约束分裂分子方面，她认为普京屡次对她说了谎（他们的通电话次数超过了三十次）。对默克尔来说，信任事关重大。

Ms Merkel took the lead over EU sanctions reluctantly. Her instinct to seek a peaceful solution saw her pilloried in Kiev, London and Washington as a Moscow sympathiser. But she was always clear that Russia must compromise or face consequences.

在欧盟制裁方面，默克尔并非情愿地带了头。她本能地寻求和平解决方案，这使她在乌克兰、英国和美国被抨击为同情俄罗斯的人。但她一直都很清楚，俄罗斯必须作出让步，否则就要承担后果。

The chancellor’s tough line in the face of Mr Putin’s intransigence has not happened in isolation. Indeed, the Ukraine crisis accelerated a rethinking of German foreign policy that was already under way.

面对普京的顽固不化，默克尔采取了强硬立场——这并非一个孤立现象。事实上，德国已经在反思外交政策，乌克兰危机加速了这个过程。

Hitherto, Germany has been the dominant EU partner on questions to do with the eurozone crisis – on the face of it, matters of economic and fiscal policy – but never on foreign policy. It has left those to traditional global actors – France and the UK.

迄今，在欧元区危机的相关问题上，德国在欧盟内部发挥了主导作用——不仅表面上如此，在经济和财政政策方面也的确是这样。然而德国从未在外交政策上扮演领导者的角色。传统的国际事务参与者——法国和英国才是欧盟外交政策的主导者。

Christoph Bertram, a veteran analyst of Germany’s foreign and security policy, sees the euro crisis and “the extraordinary weakness of other European governments” (he is too polite to single out London and Paris) as having galvanised the debate about the need for a more assertive German role.

德国外交和安全政策方面的资深分析师，克里斯托夫•贝尔特拉姆(Christoph Bertram)认为欧元危机以及“其他欧洲国家政府的异常软弱”（他礼貌地没有指出英国和法国）激起了有关德国是否需要扮演更自信角色的辩论。

“They were not rushing into it,” he says. “Reluctantly they found themselves in this position.” A country that always preferred to be a follower, not a leader, on foreign policy was suddenly forced “to be on the deck and occasionally taking the wheel”.

“他们并非草率行事，”他说，“他们并不情愿地发现自己陷入了这样的境地。”一个在外交政策上总是更愿意做追随者，而非领导者的国家，突然被迫“上了甲板，有时还得掌舵”。

Mr Bertram has been asked by Mr Steinmeier to help lead a review of German foreign policy. It follows a much-heralded speech by Joachim Gauck at the Munich security conference in January, when the German president called for the country to show greater responsibility, and a willingness to do more “to guarantee the security that others have provided it with for decades”.

受外长施泰因迈尔之请，贝尔特拉姆参与对德国外交政策发起重新审视。随后，德国总统约阿希姆•高克(Joachim Gauck)今年1月在慕尼黑安全会议上发表了一次反响热烈的演讲。高克呼吁德国展示更大的责任感，以及采取更多行动“保障其他国家几十年来提供的安全”的意愿。

Both Mr Steinmeier, a Social Democrat, and Ursula von der Leyen, defence minister and leading member of Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, lent their support to the president. The chancellor, however, kept quiet, as she often does. She knows a more assertive foreign policy is not popular among voters.

来自社会民主党(Social Democrat)的施泰因迈尔，以及现任国防部长、默克尔所在的基民盟的主要成员乌尔苏拉•冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)都表达了对总统的支持。然而默克尔一如既往地保持缄默。她明白更自信的外交政策并不受选民欢迎。

That remains true. A poll carried out by the Körber foundation in May showed that just 37 per cent of respondents think Germany should “engage more” in international crises, while 60 per cent wanted to keep a low profile.

这是事实。柯尔柏基金会(Körber foundation)5月进行的民意调查显示，仅有37%的调查对象认为德国应该“更积极地参与”国际危机，而60%的调查对象则希望德国保持低调。

There is certainly no enthusiasm in Germany for “putting boots on the ground”. On that score, Mr Putin is right to think Berlin is not prepared to intervene militarily in Ukraine. But he is wrong to think that means doing nothing.

毫无疑问，德国并不热衷于出动军事力量。在这一点上，普京认为柏林并没有准备对乌克兰事务进行武力干预，是正确的。但他错误以为这就意味着德国不会采取任何行动。

Mr Putin may have misread Ms Merkel because her instinct is to wait and see. She is a pragmatist who looks for solutions to problems, and eschews ideology. Although the expression embarrasses most German politicians, she knows there is such a thing as the “national interest”.

普京之所以误读了默克尔，也许是因为她的本能是静观其变。她是一个务实主义者，寻求问题的解决方法，并回避意识形态问题。她知道有“国家利益”这么一回事，尽管这个词会让绝大多数德国政治人士感到不安。

On Ukraine that means taking a stand against the unilateral redrawing of agreed international borders, even if it means paying an economic price. It is about security as well as prosperity. It involves European solidarity, defending the rule of law and protecting human rights. It is not just about protecting export markets.

在乌克兰事务上，这意味着对单方面改变公认边界的行为采取反对的立场，即使这意味着付出经济代价。这关乎安全也关乎繁荣。采取这样的立场需要欧洲团结一心，以捍卫法治，保护人权。重要的绝不仅仅是保护出口市场。