中国如今依然需要美国这个能源伙伴

Commentary on last month's Russian-Chinese energy deal to ship 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from East Siberia to China has focused on its benefits for China. Yet Beijing may come to regret the deal, especially when some superior options exist directly under its feet.

上个月中俄达成能源协议后，外界评论的焦点一直是该协议给中国带来的好处。然而北京可能会对这项协议感到后悔，尤其是在又出现了一些更好的选择方案的情况下。根据中俄达成的协议，俄罗斯每年从东西伯利亚向中国出口380亿立方米天然气。

Granted, northeast China needs gas imports, and other sources such as liquid natural gas would be expensive compared with piped gas from Siberia. And China's demand for natural gas is going to grow rapidly in the next couple decades--far faster than can be met with non-Russian sources such as Australia.

毫无疑问，中国东北部地区需要进口天然气，并且液化天然气等其他资源价格要高于来自西伯利亚的管道天然气。未来20年中国的天然气需求将迅猛增长，如果不从俄罗斯进口，只是依赖澳大利亚等其他国家，可能远远无法得到满足。

Even so, the $400 billion Siberian pipeline that China is now obligated to help finance won't be usable for four years. And by 2020 it will meet no more than 10% of the country's needs.

即便如此，中国目前负责融资的规模4,000亿美元的西伯利亚输气管道项目四年内也无法投入使用。到2020年该输气管道的供气量也只占中国需求的10%。

The real beneficiaries of the Shanghai deal are Vladimir Putin and his state-owned Gazprom. Gas flowing through the Siberian pipeline will also be available for sale to other Asian countries at a considerable discount to what they pay for liquid natural gas. The deal offers insurance if Europe cuts back on Russian gas imports in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis. Analysts at Wood MacKenzie liken the deal to finding 'a new Europe' for Gazprom.

其实，中俄两国上海能源协议的真正受益方是普京(Vladimir Putin)及其国有企业俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)。来自西伯利亚输气管道的天然气也可以销售给其他亚洲国家，价格将远低于它们购买的液化天然气。即使欧洲在乌克兰危机后削减俄罗斯天然气进口量，上述协议也为俄罗斯提供了保障。Wood MacKenzie的分析师们把该交易比作是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司找到了一个“新的欧洲市场”。

That should give the Chinese additional pause. The rest of the world is learning that relying on Russia for natural gas can be a very bad idea--almost as bad as depending on oil shipped through the Iran-dominated Straits of Hormuz, as China does now. Yet China's energy demands are inexorable. Already the world's largest energy consumer, it will see demand surge again in the next two decades, including for natural gas.

这将令中国更感踌躇。眼下世界其他国家都逐渐意识到，依靠俄罗斯的天然气可能导致非常不利的结果，差不多像依靠通过伊朗控制的霍尔木兹海峡(Straits of Hormuz)运输石油一样糟糕――而中国目前正是如此。然而中国的能源需求势不可挡。中国已经成为全球最大的能源消费国，而且未来20年中国对天然气等能源的需求将再度猛增。

A better idea is for China to crack open shale oil and gas reserves at home, which are enormous. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Chinese gas reserves could be almost one and a half times those of the United States. Yet to date China has dug fewer than 200 shale-gas wells, compared to 40,000 dug in the U.S.

对中国来说，更好的方案是开发本国巨大的页岩油气储量。据美国能源情报署( Energy Information Administration，简称：EIA)估计，中国天然气储量几乎是美国的1.5倍。但迄今为止，中国页岩气井数量不足200口，而美国有4万口。

Why hasn't China seen the kind of shale revolution that has turned the U.S. into the world's biggest natural gas producer, and will make it the biggest oil producer by 2020?

为何中国没有看到使美国成为全球最大天然气生产国的页岩革命？而且到2020年，美国还将成为全球最大石油生产国。

Part of the problem is geology. China's shale is heavily mixed with clay, unlike the brittle bedrock that surrounds American shale. China's is also buried deeper, and some deposits may contain lethal contaminates like hydrogen sulfide.

其中一个原因是地质问题。中国页岩掺杂大量粘土，而美国页岩则由比较脆的基岩包裹。中国页岩埋藏较深，有些矿藏还可能含有致命污染物，如硫化氢。

There's also geography. China's biggest shale gas fields are in Sichuan province, which is densely populated, unlike North Dakota or West Texas. And Sichuan can't spare the tremendous amount of water that American-style fracking demands.

还有地理方面的问题。中国最大页岩气田位于人口稠密的四川省，而不是像美国，位于人口较少的北达科他或西德克萨斯。四川也没有那么多水供美式压裂法之用。

But the biggest problem is the Chinese government. The country's major energy companies are state-owned and naturally get most contracts whether they have the expertise or not. There is little opportunity for homegrown startups to introduce innovation that would address the technical obstacles. And given China's legal system, there are no guarantees that an individual investor in such projects would get his money back.

但最大的问题还在于中国政府。中国大型能源企业都是国有企业，无论是否具备相应能力都自然能获得最多的项目合同。民间初创企业没有什么机会为解决技术难题进行创新。另外，从中国的法律制度来看，个人投资者对这种项目的投资不能保证能收回成本。

So even though China has set a 2015 target for shale gas extraction of 6.5 billion cubic meters--a tiny fraction of what the U.S. extracts every year--it seems unlikely they will come close to meeting it. At one gas site auction in late 2012, not one of the 16 companies bidding had ever drilled a gas well.

因此，虽然中国制定了到2015年页岩气产量达到每年65亿立方米的目标（仅相当于美国每年页岩气产量的很小一部分），但这一目标不太可能得以实现。在2012年底招标的一个页岩气区块，参与竞标的16家企业中没有一家具备钻探页岩气井的经验。

There is one place where China could find the expertise to open its gas potential: the United States. China has already turned to giants such as Shell for help--and joint ventured with companies such as FTS International with experience in fracking--but only U.S. companies are truly poised to solve China's issues.

如果说中国可以从一个国家找到开采页岩气储备所需的技术，这个国家就是美国。中国已求助于壳牌(Shell)等巨头，并与具有压裂经验的FTS International等企业组建了合资公司，但只有美国企业真正做好了帮助中国解决问题的准备。

Houston-based eCorp, for example, has developed a technology for fracking shale wells with liquid propane instead of water mixed with chemicals. Unlike conventional fracking, the process produces no waste because the propane goes into the pipeline along with the gas.

例如，总部位于休斯顿的eCorp已开发了一项用液态丙烷取代混有化学剂的水来压裂页岩井的技术。和常规的压裂不同，这一工序不会产生废弃物，因为丙烷会随着页岩气一起进入管道。

But for China to tap sufficient foreign expertise would require some rethinking--namely to begin viewing foreign entrepreneurs not as profiteers but as partners. Such a change might also encourage Beijing to see the U.S. less as a geopolitical and economic rival, and more as a potential partner in solving its biggest energy needs.

但中国对大量采用国外技术还存有一些顾虑，因为这意味着不能再将国外企业视为牟取暴利者，而是当做合作伙伴。这种转变或许还会促使北京更多地将美国视为解决本国巨大能源需求的潜在合作伙伴，而非地缘政治和经济竞争对手。

China's long-term economic and energy security are at stake. Betting on help from the U.S. seems far wiser than relying on a Siberian pipeline with Vladimir Putin's hand on the spigot.

中国的长期经济和能源安全危如累卵，求助美国似乎比依赖由普京掌控龙头的西伯利亚输气管道似乎要靠谱得多。