中国官方否认策划人民币贬值

The renminbi has suffered its steepest weekly fall against the US dollar since China reformed its exchange rate system in 2005 in a move that some economists have interpreted as a warning from the country’s central bank to currency speculators.

人民币兑美元汇率出现自2005年中国实施汇改以来的最大单周跌幅。一些经济学家将这解读为中国央行对外汇投机者发出的一次警告。

The renminbi posted its seventh straight daily decline yesterday, sliding 0.02 per cent against the dollar to close at 6.1244 having hit its lowest level since early August in intraday trading.

昨日，人民币汇率连续第7天下跌，人民币兑美元汇率收跌0.02%，至1美元兑6.1244元人民币，盘中一度创下去年8月初以来的低点。

One popular theory among economists and investors is that the People’s Bank of China engineered the depreciation because it was concerned about huge inflows of capital in recent months and wanted to show markets that trading the currency was not a one-way bet. Analysts had been forecasting a continuation of the appreciation seen since late 2012.

经济学家和投资者较认可的一个解读是，中国央行策划了这波人民币贬值，因为其对近几月的巨额资金流入感到担心，想向市场表明单向押注人民币汇率走势是行不通的。2012年末以来，分析师一直预测人民币会持续升值。

However, the Chinese central bank used its first official statement on the sudden weakening of the country’s currency to say the sell-off was a reflection of market forces and should not be over-interpreted.

然而，中国央行在其就人民币突然贬值发表的首份官方声明中表示，这是市场力量的反映，不应过分解读。

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, an agency under the central bank, did not acknowledge any role in guiding the currency. “The recent movement of the renminbi exchange rate is the result of market players adjusting their near-term trading strategies,” it said.

中国央行下属的中国国家外汇管理局不承认在引导汇率走势方面发挥了什么作用。该局表示：“近期人民币汇率走势是市场主体调整前期人民币交易策略的结果。

“The degree of exchange rate volatility is normal by the standards of developed and emerging markets.”

“这次汇率波动幅度与发达和新兴市场货币的波动相比属于正常波动。

After huge investment and trade inflows at the start of the year, there was a clear reversal of the trend in February, according to China Financial News, a central bank newspaper.

中国央行主管的报纸《金融时报》(Chinese Financial News)报道称，在今年初出现巨大的投资与贸易流入之后，2月份趋势发生了明显的逆转。

“Risk appetite has weakened somewhat because of lower-than-expected growth data. Also, concerns about the property market have increased,” said Peng Wensheng, an economist with China International Capital Corp, the research group.

中国国际金融公司(CICC)经济学家彭文生说：“风险偏好下降的原因多少在于逊于预期的增长数据。另外，房地产市场引起的担忧也有所加剧。”

However, the hand of the ­Chinese central bank, which keeps a tight grip on the exchange rate, has been evident. When the currency started falling last week it was the central bank that steadily lowered its daily reference rate, while banks and companies continued to trade it at a stronger level.

然而，一直严格管控汇率的中国央行在这波人民币贬值中的作用是显而易见的。上周人民币汇率开始下跌时，是中国央行在稳步下调人民币汇率中间价，而银行和企业则在不断将人民币汇率水平推高至中间价上方。

It was only over the past two days that the market-traded exchange rate fell below the daily rate set by the central bank – a sign that Beijing has, for now, succeeded in breaking at least some of the one-way bets on appreciation.

只是在过去两天里，市场交易给出的人民币汇率才降至中国央行设定的中间价下方。这一迹象表明，北京方面目前至少在一定程度上打破了人民币单边升值预期。

China faced immense capital inflows at the start of this year, according to data published on Tuesday by the central bank.

中国央行周二发布的数据显示，今年初流入中国的资金规模十分庞大。

Banks bought a net $73bn of foreign currency in the onshore market from their clients who wanted renminbi in January, the biggest monthly amount on record. Inflows have been accelerating since the middle of last year when China’s mountain of foreign exchange reserves grew by $500bn to $3.8tn.

今年1月，银行在在岸市场从想持有人民币的客户手中净买入了730亿美元的外汇，创下了最大的单月买入量。去年年中，中国的巨额外汇储备增加了5000亿美元，达到3.8万亿美元。自那以来，资金一直在加速流入中国。