人民币意外贬值加大货币战危险
According to conventional wisdom, wars are easy to start and difficult to end. Similarly Beijing’s devaluation, the biggest one-day currency move since 1993, represents the latest skirmish in an emerging battle which, analysts warn, may be hard to reverse.
人们常说，发动战争容易，难就难在结束战争。类似地，北京方面出台的人民币贬值措施（自1993年以来人民币最大单日汇率变动），代表着一场已有打响之势的战争的最新动作。分析师们警告，这场轮廓渐渐清晰的战争可能一发而不可收。
The move marks a shift in China’s historical policy during times of economic stress. In the late 1990s, the country was widely cRedited with containing the destruction from the Asian financial crisis because it held fast to the renminbi exchange rate in the midst of competitive devaluations throughout the region.
此举标志着中国历来在经济紧张时期奉行的政策出现了变化。上世纪90年代末，中国被广泛誉为遏止了亚洲金融危机带来的破坏，因为在整个亚洲出现竞争性货币贬值之际，中国保持了人民币汇率稳定。
In the global financial crisis of 2008, Beijing also refused to devalue even as its exports, a key driver of the economy, evaporated overnight.
在2008年的全球金融危机期间，北京方面也拒绝贬值，即便中国经济的主要驱动力之一出口出现骤降。
But now, in the midst of a pronounced and persistent Chinese economic slowdown and continued appreciation pressure resulting from the renminbi’s “dirty peg” to the soaring US dollar, China’s leaders have decided to take the plunge.
但现在，随着中国经济增长出现显著而持续的放缓，而人民币因为与不断飙升的美元存在不透明的挂钩而持续受到升值压力，中国领导人决定冒险一试。
“This shows how desperate the government is over the state of the economy,” said Fraser Howie, a China analyst and co-author of Red Capitalism. “If they were trying, as the central bank said it was, to bring the exchange rate back into line with market expectations then they have failed miserably as the market is now just expecting further devaluation.”
“这表明政府对经济状况有多么绝望，”中国事务分析人士、《红色资本主义》(Red Capitalism)一书的合著者侯伟(Fraser Howie)表示。“如果他们像中国央行所说的那样，是在试图让汇率回归与市场预期相符的水平，那么他们已经惨败，因为现在市场只是期待着进一步的贬值。”
In its announcement of the devaluation just before markets opened on Tuesday morning, the People’s Bank of China went to considerable lengths to insist this was a one-off move and part of a broader shift to a more market-orientated exchange rate mechanism.
在周二市场开盘前宣布贬值时，中国人民银行(PBoC)以相当大的篇幅坚称，此举属于一次性校正，而且是朝着汇率市场化方向迈进的整体努力的一部分。
The PBoC said it would calculate the daily renminbi fix — the rate it sets the currency each morning and from where it is allowed to move as much as 2 percentage points in either direction — by taking more notice of market forces, including movements in global currency markets.
中国央行表示，它将在计算人民币汇率中间价时更多地参考市场因素，包括全球汇市的变动。中国央行每日上午设定人民币汇率中间价，允许其在当日上升或下降2个百分点。
“The People’s Bank of China has orchestrated a clever combination of a move to weaken the renminbi with a shift to a more market-determined exchange rate, blunting foreign criticism of the renminbi devaluation,” said Eswar Prasad, the former IMF country head for China.
“中国人民银行精心策划了这一招，把压低人民币与转向在更大程度上由市场决定汇率巧妙结合起来，化解外国对人民币贬值的批评，”国际货币基金组织(IMF)原中国部主任埃斯瓦渠拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。
“China’s move will reverberate in global currency markets and signals that one of the last holdouts among the major economies may be throwing in the towel and joining the fray in trying to use currency policy as a tool to counter weak growth.”
“中国此举将在全球汇市产生反响，它传递的信号是，最后几个坚守立场的大型经济体之一可能再也沉不住气了，转而投入战局，试图把汇率政策当作应对增长疲弱的工具。”
Virtually all analysts agree that a revival of China’s declining exports will require a much more significant depreciation than Tuesday’s “one-off” move.
几乎所有分析师都认为，要重振中国不断下降的出口，将需要比周二的“一次性校正”幅度大得多的贬值。
Tom Orlik, Bloomberg chief Asia economist, estimates a 1 per cent depreciation in the real effective exchange rate boosts export growth by 1 percentage point with a time lag of three months.
彭博(Bloomberg)首席亚洲经济学家汤姆攠尔利克(Tom Orlik)估计，实际有效汇率贬值1%，将提升出口增长1个百分点，而且有3个月的时间滞后。
But the renminbi’s inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted exchange rate against all currencies was up 3.6 per cent in the first half of this year and up 10.3 per cent since the start of 2014, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements. As recently as last month, numerous senior officials and government experts were insisting that China would not devalue the renminbi.
但是，根据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据，经通胀调整后的人民币贸易加权汇率在今年上半年走高3.6%，自2014年初以来上升10.3%。就在上月，许多高级官员和政府专家还坚称，中国不会让人民币贬值。
In late March, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told the Financial Times: “We don’t want to see further devaluation of the Chinese currency, because we can’t rely on devaluing our own currency to boost exports.
3月下旬，中国总理李克强对英国《金融时报》表示：“我不希望看到人民币继续贬值，因为我们不能靠贬值来刺激出口。
“We don’t want to see a scenario in which major economies trip over each other to devalue their currencies,” Mr Li continued. “That will lead to a currency war, and if China feels compelled to devalue the RMB in this process, we don’t think this will be something good for the international financial system.”
“我们不愿意看见货币竞相贬值的状态出现，”李克强继续说。“那会出现货币大战，逼着人民币贬值，我觉得这对世界金融体系不是个好结果。”
The change in official thinking in the months since the premier all but ruled out Tuesday’s move comes as China’s economy slowed a lot more than Beijing expected. Exports, in particular, have declined, following an 8.3 per cent year-on-year drop in July.
中国总理基本上排除贬值几个月后，官方思路显然发生了变化，其背景是中国经济放缓程度远远大于高层预期。尤其是出口下降，7月中国出口同比下降8.3%。
Last month’s bursting of a year-long equity market bubble and the government’s scramble to prop up stocks further unnerved China’s leaders and appear to have convinced them to break the longstanding taboo of devaluation.
持续一年的股市泡沫上月破裂，以及政府匆忙出手救市，使中国领导人更加不安，似乎也让他们确信应该打破贬值的长期禁忌。
Apart from the danger of a currency war with other countries, Beijing must also be wary of political pressure from Washington where the perceived undervaluation of the renminbi has been a constant source of trade friction.
除了与其他国家爆发汇率战争的危险外，北京还必须警惕来自华盛顿的政治压力，美方对于人民币被低估的观点一直是贸易摩擦的根源之一。
Another problem is that depreciation is likely to exacerbate capital flight, which has already become a serious issue this year for the first time in more than a decade.
另一个问题是，贬值可能加剧资本流出，今年资本流出在10多年来首次成为中国的一个严重问题。
“The devaluation in the renminbi is not large enough to improve China’s export competitiveness, but it is large enough to create a sense that Beijing may have fundamentally shifted its currency policy,” said Stuart Allsopp, head of country risk and financial markets strategy at BMI Research. “The risk now is that investors see the yuan [another term for the renminbi] as a one-way bet weaker and start to position against the currency, raising the prospect of more substantial yuan weakness and more economic uncertainty.”
“人民币贬值幅度尚不足以提高中国的出口竞争力，但足以让人产生一种感觉，即北京可能已从根本上改变汇率政策，”BMI Research的国别风险和金融市场策略主管斯图尔特攠尔索普(Stuart Allsopp)表示。“现在的风险是，投资者对人民币做出只会走低不会走高的单向押注，开始打赌人民币进一步贬值，由此带来人民币更大幅度走低和更多经济不确定因素的前景。”
