破译金正恩晦涩难猜的新年致辞

Kim Jong Un's New Year's speech was closely watched because it offered a rare chance to see the North Korean leader speak, even if he probably contributed little or nothing to the message he delivered.

朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的新年致辞备受外界关注，因为这提供了一个聆听朝鲜领导人讲话的难得机会，即使这篇致辞可能几乎或完全不是他本人的意思。

The speech itself didn't turn up much that was new other than a colorful reference to his purged uncle, Jang Song Thaek, as 'factionalist filth' and heavy reinforcement of the ideological fallout from Mr. Jang's demise. Mr. Kim said it was imperative to 'ensure the purity of Party ranks' and 'establish the monolithic leadership system in the Party.'

除了将他已被肃清的姑父张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)称为“宗派污泥浊水”，并借张成泽被处决事件大力强化国家意识形态之外，这篇讲话并没有多少新的内容。金正恩称，要在党内建立唯一领导体系，切实保障党队伍的纯洁性。

The delivery of the speech--from behind a dais with seven microphones--was also the same as last year, as was Mr. Kim's tendency to fidget while speaking. Possibly with that in mind, there was one notable difference in presentation this year: the amount of time Mr. Kim spent on camera.

这篇讲话是在一个摆有七个麦克风的讲台上发表的。与去年一样，金正恩在讲话时仍显得躁动不安。可能是考虑到了这一点，今年的讲话有一个显著不同，那就是金正恩出现在镜头中的时间。

Like last year, the speech was broadcast as a combination of Mr. Kim's presentation and cutaways to a photo of the Korean Workers' Party Central Committee headquarters building. It isn't clear if the speech was delivered there or even if there was an audience. The applause, like last year, sounded like it was borrowed from a 1970's U.S. sitcom.

与去年一样，这篇讲话是通过将金正恩的讲话镜头与朝鲜劳动党(Korean Workers' Party)中央委员会总部大楼的照片剪辑结合在一起播放的。目前还不清楚这篇讲话是否就是在该大楼发表的，也不知道当时是否还有观众。与去年一样，这篇讲话中的掌声听起来像是从上世纪70年代的美国情景喜剧中借用过来的。

For the 2013 speech, Mr. Kim was shown at length throughout the broadcast. But this year, after just two minutes of a speech that lasted more than 20 minutes, Mr. Kim is no longer shown and the building is the only thing to look at.

在2013年的新年致辞中，金正恩从始至终都出现在镜头中。但今年，在这篇全长20多分钟的讲话仅开始两分钟后，画面上就再也看不到金正恩，而只有劳动党中央委员会总部大楼。

Exactly why is, like most things in North Korea, unclear. But one possibility, naturally speculative, is that it reflects Mr. Kim's reduced grip on power in the wake of the execution of his uncle.

与朝鲜的很多事情一样，这其中的真正原因也不得而知。但令人自然而然能推测到的一种可能是，这表明在张成泽被处决后金正恩的权力受到了削弱。

North Korea's call to rally behind the leader has been a constant in state media since the purge. Yet some experts are convinced Mr. Kim is not in charge, even if the regime maintains the cult of the Kim family, with Mr. Kim as the figurehead, to ensure stability and control.

自从肃清张成泽之后，朝鲜一直在国内媒体上号召团结在金正恩周围。但一些专家确信，金正恩已不再掌权，即使现行的政治制度仍尊崇金氏家族，将金正恩当作一个“名义领袖”，以确保稳定和对国家的控制。

New Focus International, a news service about North Korea run by Jang Jin-sung, a former senior North Korean official, recently published a series of articles about what it sees as the new underlying power structure, including a column with the headline ' We have just witnessed a coup in North Korea.' Following that, Mr. Jang and his staff, including other former North Korean officials, detail what they believe to be the current power hierarchy.

朝鲜前高级官员张真晟(Jang Jin-sung)开办的一家报道朝鲜事件的新闻网站国际新焦点(New Focus International)前不久发表了一系列文章，内容是关于该国新的潜在权力结构，其中包括一篇题为“我们刚刚目睹了朝鲜政变”的专栏文章。之后，张真晟与同事（包括朝鲜其他前官员）详细讲述了他们眼中朝鲜目前的权力等级。

Among the evidence they cited were photos of the Politburo meeting at which the purge of Mr. Jang was announced. The photos show the meeting hall half-empty and cadres raising questions from the floor. According to New Focus, this would be unthinkable under the previous leader, Kim Jong Il, and shows a lack of control by the current leader.

他们举出了多种证据，如宣布清洗张成泽的中央政治局会议的照片等。从这些照片上可以看到，会议大厅内有一半的座位是空着的，与会干部正在提问。据国际新焦点表示，难以想象在朝鲜前领导人金正日(Kim Jong Il)的统治下会出现这个场面，同时这也表明金正恩缺乏掌控力。

They also note that the decision to purge Mr. Jang was stated as 'organizational will of the Party' rather than that of Mr. Kim--something that wouldn't have happened under his father.

他们还指出，清洗张成泽的决定被说成是“党的组织意图”，而不是金正恩的个人决心。在其父金正日掌权时，就不会发生这样的事。

Mr. Jang says it's not a coincidence that the photo of the Workers' Party headquarters got far more screen time that Mr. Kim in this year's New Year's speech, reflecting the Party's increased role at the expense of Mr. Kim.

张真晟说，在新年致辞中，朝鲜劳动党总部的图像获得了远超金正恩的上镜时间，这并非是一个巧合，而是反映出劳动党扮演了更重要的角色，当然这是以金正恩权力弱化为代价的。

What this means for the stability of the North Korean regime, if it is indeed true, is also unclear. A North Korea run by Party officials with Mr. Kim as the figurehead may be just as stable as a North Korea run by a Kim. And to be sure, there are plenty of analysts skeptical that Mr. Kim isn't in full control.

如果张真晟的看法是正确的，那么这对朝鲜政权的稳定性而言意味着什么，目前还不得而知。或许，一个由劳动党官员统治的、以金正恩为名义领袖的朝鲜与金正日统治下的朝鲜一样稳定。当然，也有很多分析人士怀疑，金正恩并未完全掌控朝鲜。

One thing we do know for sure is that he can't stand still while giving a speech.

我们确切知道的一件事是，他在发表演讲时不能一动不动地站着。