全球动态:埃及应效仿突尼斯模式

Egypt is more divided than ever. All sides – from Islamists to secularists – are headed to their corners, looking to be victors in the battle for power and refusing to make efforts to accommodate and compromise. If this continues, the country is in real danger of becoming the next Algeria. It should follow, instead, in Tunisia’s footsteps.

目前，埃及已陷入了史无前例的分裂之中。各方力量——从伊斯兰主义者到世俗主义者——都在奔向死胡同，他们只想成为权力战场上的胜利者，丝毫也不肯变通和妥协。如果这种态势持续下去，埃及将面临一种实实在在的危险中，有可能变成下一个阿尔及利亚。相反，埃及应该效仿突尼斯。

Recent events offer ominous signs. Reactions to the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi, inside and outside Egypt, are simplistic. The picture is painted in black or white: the military’s action was either a coup against democracy or it was a move in defence of democracy.

最近的事态进展呈现出了不祥之兆。埃及国内外对前总统穆罕默德•穆尔西(Mohamed Morsi)被推翻的反应过于简单化。人们的态度非黑即白：不是认为军方发动了一场反对民主的政变，就是认为军方采取了捍卫民主的举措。

But, rather than looking for someone to blame, Egyptians should realise that everyone lost the moment they stopped co-operating.

但是，埃及人不应急于寻找指责对象，反倒应该认识到，一旦各方停止合作，所有人都会成为输家。

Islamist and secular forces are trying to exclude each other at every turn. When the Muslim Brotherhood won democratic elections, it pushed through a constitution without winning a consensus, believing victory entitled it to carte blanche in policy decisions. It felt its electoral mandate gave it the right to change society’s behaviour. But, although Egypt is a conservative society, most people do not want their government to tell them how to behave when it comes to religion. More than 10m people poured into the streets – far more than the number of protesters that toppled Hosni Mubarak, the former president. Clearly, a significant portion of society felt excluded in the aftermath of the revolution two years ago.

伊斯兰主义者与世俗力量处处都竭力排挤对方。穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)在民主选举中获胜之后，尚未取得共识，便强行通过了一部新宪法。穆兄会认为，选战胜利赋予其在政策决策中自行其是的权力。该党觉得，是选民授予了自己改变社会行为的权力。但是，尽管埃及是个保守社会，多数人也不想让自己的宗教行为受到政府的左右。结果，逾千万人涌上街头，远远超过推翻前总统胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)的抗议人数。显然，社会中很大一部分人感觉，在革命后两年，自己被边缘化了。

The secular forces are behaving no better. Their parties and leaders set a dangerous precedent when they stopped trying to work with Islamists in the democratic system, turning instead to the military – what is to stop others doing the same next time they are unhappy?

世俗力量也好不到哪儿去。他们的党派及领导人停止在民主体制内与伊斯兰主义者合作，转而求助于军方，由此开创了一个危险的先例——下一次其他派别不满意时如法炮制，有谁能够阻止？

And, at this critical stage, they are not doing enough to include the Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, with the army cracking down and rounding up hundreds of Islamists without clear charges, there will soon be no one left to talk to about how to address Egypt’s severe challenges and end the crisis.

而且，在这个关键时刻，世俗力量对穆斯林兄弟会也显得不够包容。此外，军队未拿出任何罪名，便镇压并羁押了数百名伊斯兰主义者，能参与讨论如何应对埃及的严峻挑战、结束这场危机的人很快寥寥无几了。

Both Islamists and secularists are wrong if they think they can build a new Egypt on their own. There is no way the country can be successful if only one party rules. It should be clear to all that the transition was on the wrong track from the start. To avoid perpetuating this, all sides must stop antagonising each other and work together.

如果伊斯兰主义者与世俗主义者都认为自己能够以一己之力建好新埃及，那就大错特错了。只有一党执政，埃及不可能成功。人们应该清醒地认识到，过渡期从一开始就走错路了。各方力量必须停止相互对抗，携手合作，才能避免继续错下去。

First, Egypt needs a bill of rights that enshrines basic principles. It must guarantee the right of every individual – regardless of religion or gender – to work in government. It must guarantee the rights of minorities. And it must guarantee the peaceful rotation of power. As per the US constitution, no laws can be passed that go against its spirit.

首先，埃及需要一部写入基本原则的权利法案。这部法案必须保证每一个个体在政府中工作的权力，不论其宗教信仰和性别有何差异。必须保障少数民族的权力。必须保证权力的和平轮换。从美国宪法来看，任何法律只要违背宪法精神，均不得通过。

The bill of rights can then be used to agree to a new, complete constitution. It must be based on consensus reached following negotiations including all sides, much like the one the Tunisians have created. It must not reflect the desires of only some. This is the only way to ensure no force will be able to exclude others or dictate norms of behaviour on Egyptian society.

接下来，可以以这部权利法案为起点，达成一部完整的新宪法。新宪法必须以各方力量经磋商达成的共识为基础，就像突尼斯创建的宪法一样。新宪法绝不能只体现某些派别的意志。这是保证任何派别都不会排挤其他派别、或者决定埃及社会行为准则的唯一途径。

All this must be done before elections are held. It is important to recognise, however, that just because Mr Morsi has been deposed, it does not mean the Islamists are out of the game. While an Islamist candidate is unlikely to win a new vote for president, the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties are likely to be victors in any near-term parliamentary election.

这些都必须在选举之前完成。然而，重要的是必须承认，仅仅穆尔西遭罢黜这一事实，并不意味着伊斯兰主义者已然出局了。虽然伊斯兰主义候选人不大可能赢得新一轮总统选举，但穆兄会以及其他伊斯兰主义党派很可能在近期的议会选举中获胜。

At this point, Egypt has two possible paths. Either it follows the Tunisian route and establishes an inclusive coalition government where tensions are still prevalent but progress is obvious; or it follows the Algerian route of deep polarisation and possibly civil war. Algeria’s glaring divide persists two decades after Islamists mounted a civil insurgency when they were denied a legitimate electoral triumph.

此刻，埃及有两条路可走。要么步上突尼斯之路，建立一个兼容并包的联合政府，虽然政府内部紧张态势依然普遍存在，但也有明显的进步；要么走上阿尔及利亚之路，陷入严重分裂之中，可能还会点燃内战。在阿尔及利亚，伊斯兰主义者于20年前在合法选举中获胜却未被承认，于是他们发动了一场叛乱；20年后的今天，该国社会依然四分五裂。

If secular forces assume a winner-takes-all position and Islamists refuse to learn from their mistakes, Egypt will be back at square one. Even if it maintains the status quo, it faces a continued deterioration of the political and economic situation.

如果世俗力量秉持赢者通吃的态度，伊斯兰主义者拒绝从错误中汲取教训，埃及将回到原点。即便现状得以维持，国内政治经济形势也会持续恶化。

The country still has the opportunity to choose its own destiny. But the only way for secularists and Islamists to find a way out of the crisis is together.

埃及仍有机会选择自己的命运。但世俗主义者与伊斯兰主义者要想走出危机，就必须携手合作。