印度能成功效仿中国的基建模式吗?
【英文原文】
India's Infrastructure Push Must Steer Past Potholes
Upgrading infrastructure has fueled rapid economic growth in the world's most populous country, China. Hope is springing once again that the second-most-populous one, India, might follow the same path.
To avoid disenchantment, India will need to work extra hard to get support from investors at home and abroad, and to deliver on past promises.
China, with its sprawling networks of new highways, airports and budding high-speed rail connections, makes for a daunting comparison. India has weaker government finances and an unruly democratic government that lacks China's authoritarian discipline.
Clearing land for roads or power plants in China is a cinch; not so in India, where land rights are often contentious. Government-backed companies have led China's infrastructure build-out. India's push will depend heavily on the private sector. And India, with its history of murky and investor-unfriendly rules on infrastructure investment, has a record of disappointment.
But the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, empowered by a decisive victory for his Congress party in elections last year, is making infrastructure a priority, with roads a particular focus of attention.
Kamal Nath, a high-profile politician, has taken on responsibility for roads and highways in what is seen as a sign of the post's new importance. His goal is to build 20 kilometers of new highway a day, and he is seeking $41 billion in private-sector investment over the next three to four years to help fund the construction.
He knows the depth of the problem. At a conference co-hosted by The Wall Street Journal Asia in New Delhi last month, Mr. Nath declared that of India's 70,000 kilometers of highways, 16,000 'aren't worth driving on,' and noted that 40% of India's fruits and vegetables rot before reaching market because of delays from poor roads and rail lines.
One thing in India's favor is an active stock market for raising funds. Infrastructure companies have raised about $6.3 billion since the beginning of 2008 on the Bombay Stock Exchange, according to Dealogic. Much of that has been for power projects, though road companies have gone to market as well. The most recent, IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd., raised $138 million in an offering that began trading March 30.
Attracting support from institutional investors, including foreign pension funds and insurance companies, won't be so easy. Many are wary of directly funding so-called greenfield projects that have yet to break ground, for fear of getting caught up in the kinds of disputes that torpedoed past investments such as Enron Corp.'s ill-fated Dabhol power project. The $2.9 billion plant closed in June 2001 after the loss-plagued Maharashtra State Electricity Board stopped payments, saying the rates were too high. Subsequent attempts to rescue the project have failed.
Still, some foreign investors are showing interest in companies that have already taken on the greenfield risk. On Friday, GMR Energy Ltd., the energy unit of India's GMR Infrastructure Ltd., said Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. will invest $200 million to fund existing projects. Last month, a consortium of global investors led by Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners agreed to invest $425 million in Asian Genco Pte. Ltd., an Indian power company.
Mr. Nath has recently been to Hong Kong and Tokyo trying to drum up interest from other big investors. He is offering incentives that include a 10-year tax holiday and allowing foreign investors to take as much as 100% of projects. 'I do get the sense that foreign institutional investors are quite keen on coming to India overall and specifically for infrastructure,' says Pankaj Vaish, managing director and head of global markets for India at Nomura Holdings Inc. 'The key is the terms and conditions and valuations.'
New road concessions will come up for bidding soon -- as many as nine megaprojects in the next few months, Mr. Nath said recently. Terms such as those that set caps on tolls need to be attractive enough to bring quality builders on board, but tough enough to enforce quality control. Building roads isn't enough; building them to last and maintaining them is the key.
The other litmus test of India's infrastructure prospects could be how well power companies that raised billions of dollars through the stock market in the last few years execute their plans. Reliance Power Ltd., a utility controlled by billionaire Anil Ambani, started generating power at its first project in December after raising $3 billion in January 2008. A high valuation doomed that initial public offering, India's largest ever, to failure in the aftermarket; the stock today still trades at a fraction of its offering price.
Further evidence that the money Reliance Power and others have raised is contributing desperately needed power to India's electrical grid and earning profits in the process would encourage more investment. Maggie Lee, who lead manages the Invesco Asian infrastructure fund, says Invesco won't invest in a company without reported profits. But once it generates positive cash flow, the story can change.
'In India, historically, they overpromise and underdeliver,' Ms. Lee says. However, if infrastructure investment really starts to take off, she says, 'India, over the longer term, could be theoretically more exciting' than China. That is a hope India's government and the private companies leading its infrastructure drive should strive hard not to dash.
【中文译文】
基建设施升级推动了全球人口最多的国家──中国的经济迅速增长。而在全球人口第二大国印度，有意效仿中国经济发展之路的愿望再次显现。
为避免令人们失望，印度将需额外努力以获得国内外投资者的支持，并兑现以往的承诺。
中国有四通八达的新建公路、航空及发展中的高速铁路交通体系，这与印度形成鲜明对照。印度政府财力不足，而且有着一个难以控制的民主政府，缺乏中国政府的权威。
为修路或建电厂清理出土地在中国很容易做到，但在印度却不行。印度的土地权通常具有争议。在中国，是政府支持的公司主导着基建建设。而印度则严重依靠私人企业。在印度，由于基建投资历史晦暗及投资规则对投资者不利，基建建设素来令人失望。
但印度总理辛格（Manmohan Singh）领导的政府，在去年的选举中因国大党(Congress party)获得绝对性胜利而上台。辛格政府正将基建作为优先考虑事宜，特别是把道路建设作为重点关注。
印度知名政治家纳特（Kamal Nath）已接手负责道路与公路建设，这也被视为该职位新重要性的标志。他的计划是每天建成20公里新公路，并计划在今后三至四年间筹集410亿美元的私人投资以进行公路建设。
他对基建存在的问题有深入的了解。上月在新德里一个由《亚洲华尔街日报》参与举办的会议上，纳特称，印度现有七万公里的公路，有1.6万公里无法驾车行驶，并指出，印度40%的水果及蔬菜在到达市场前即已腐烂，原因即是道路及铁路运输情况不佳。
对印度有利的一个因素是其股市活跃便于筹集资金。根据Dealogic的数据，自2008年始，基建公司已从孟买证券交易所(Bombay Stock Exchange)募集到约63亿美元的资金。多数资金用于电力项目，尽管也有公路公司上市。最近，IL&FS 交通网络有限公司(IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd.)在3月30日开始交易的股票发行中筹资1.38亿美元。
吸引外国退休基金及保险公司等机构投资者的支持不会那么容易。许多机构都对直接投资尚未破工动工的所谓新建项目非常谨慎，担心会卷入导致安然公司(Enron Corp.)投资的大博(Dabhol)电厂项目彻底失败的类似争议之中。这家价值29亿美元的电厂于2001年6月关闭，因遭受亏损困扰的印度马邦电力局（Maharashtra State Electricity Board）声称价格过高并停止支付。此后一系列试图挽救该项目的努力均以失败告终。
但仍有外国投资者对冒险投资新建项目的公司感兴趣。上周五，印度基建公司GMR Infrastructure Ltd.下属的能源公司GMR Energy Ltd称，新加坡国有投资公司淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.)将投资两亿美元支持其现有项目。上个月，由摩根士丹利基建合伙人基金（Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners）牵头的一个全球投资者集团同意向一家印度电力公司Asian Genco Pte. Ltd.投资4.25亿美元。
纳特刚去过香港及东京，试图鼓动其它大型投资者的兴趣。他提供的优惠措施包括为期10年的税收减免，以及允许外国投资者持有项目全部股份。野村控股（Nomura Holdings Inc.）驻印度的董事经理兼全球市场负责人Pankaj Vaish强烈认为，外国机构投资者热衷于来印度投资，特别是进行基建投资。关键是投资的条款、条件及估值。
纳特最近说，新的公路特许权将很快开始招标，未来几个月将有多达九个大型公路工程。诸如设定通行费上限等条款需要有足够吸引力才能招揽到优质建筑商，但也要严厉到足以实施质量控制。只修路还不够，修建耐用的公路并进行养护才是关键。
印度基建前景的另一个试金石可能是，过去几年中通过股市募资达数十亿美元的电力公司如何完美地执行既定方案。亿万富翁安巴尼(Anil Ambani)掌控之下的信实电力(Reliance Power Ltd.)在2008年1月募资30亿美元后，其首期电厂已于去年12月开始发电。而高估值注定印度有史以来这起最大的IPO在二级市场上以失败告终。该股股价时至今日仍远远低于发行价。
而如果能进一步证实，信实电力及其它公司筹集到的资金有助于产生印度急需的电力，且在此过程中产生盈利，那么就能鼓动更多投资。景顺亚洲栋梁基金(Invesco Asian infrastructure fund)的投资经理Maggie Lee称，景顺基金不会投资于未见盈利的公司。但一旦产生正向现金流，情况就可能发生改变。
Maggie Lee称，印度向来承诺有余而履行不足。但她承认，如果印度的基建投资真能启动，从理论上讲，长期而言将比中国更令人兴奋。引导基建业发展的印度政府及私人企业需要努力工作，以免让这种希望落空。
