最令人紧张的"扑克牌游戏"正在朝鲜半岛上演
The world’s most fascinating – and unnerving – game of poker is taking place on the Korean peninsula. The problem is no one has seen the Korean Kid play before.
The game started out pretty routinely. In December Kim Jong-eun got things started by casually tossing a missile launch on the table. Barack “Pivot” Obama raised him with a UN Security Council resolution. The Kid brought out a nuclear test, and was raised by fresh sanctions.
游戏的开局相当的俗套。去年12月，金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)漫不经心地把一张“导弹发射牌”扔到牌桌上，启动了整个牌局。巴拉克•“重心”•奥巴马（Barack “Pivot” Obama，此处的“Pivot”指奥巴马把美国战略重心转向亚太的标志性举措——译者注）以一张“联合国安理会决议牌”压过了金正恩的牌。“朝鲜小子”又打出一张“核试验牌”，他的对手则以一张“新一轮制裁牌”压过。Since then the bets have come thick and fast. Mr Obama has thrown in B-2 and B-52 bombers. Mr Kim, in charge of North Korea since December 2011, has declared a “state of war” with South Korea and asserted his right to a pre-emptive nuclear strike. This week he raised the stakes still further. He warned foreigners to leave Seoul in case of a “thermonuclear war” and closed the Kaesong industrial park, one of his country’s few sources of foreign exchange. To many that smacked of unhinged irrationality, the equivalent of betting your wedding ring on a feeble hand.
自那之后，双方的下注越来越大，也越来越快。奥巴马掷出一张“B-2和B-52轰炸机牌”。而2011年12月起执掌朝鲜的金正恩对此的回应则是宣布与韩国进入“战争状态”，并坚称自己有权发动先发制人的核打击。本周，金正恩进一步加大了筹码。他一方面警告外国人离开首尔以免遭遇“热核战争”，另一方面关闭了开城工业园区这个朝鲜屈指可数的外汇来源之一。在许多人看来，这些举动有点精神错乱、失去理性的味道，相当于把结婚戒指押在一手弱牌上。
The trouble in all of this is that no one knows the Kid’s “tell”. He may be a lousy novice. Alternatively, he may be some kind of poker genius.
整件事的麻烦之处在于，没人知道“朝鲜小子”出牌的“路数”。他或许是一位差到极点的新手。或者与此相反，是某种扑克天才。Seoul is calling Mr Kim’s bluff. Most ordinary South Koreans are unfazed by the antics from the North. They have seen them many times before – mostly without much consequence. Just to be sure, President Park Geun-hye – also new at the table – has given South Korea’s armed forces permission to respond to any attack without political consideration.
首尔方面认为金正恩是在虚张声势。多数韩国老百姓并不把朝鲜的古怪行径放在心上。这样的行为他们以前见得多了，多数时候都不了了之。为以防万一，新上牌桌的韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)已授权韩国军队可不考虑政治后果对朝鲜发动的任何攻击予以还击。The rest of the world is rather more rattled. The west sees an inexperienced leader in Pyongyang who needs to consolidate his power at home by proving his mettle in a diplomatic facedown. Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, warns that a “small miscalculation or misjudgment may lead to an uncontrollable situation”.
世界其余地区却被这一牌局搅得心神不宁。西方认为，朝鲜领导人缺乏经验、需要通过在外交对抗中证明自己的勇气来巩固自己在国内的权力。联合国秘书长潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)警告说，即使是“小小的误算或误判，也可能导致不可收拾的局面”。In the latest edition of Foreign Affairs, Keir Lieber, an associate professor at Georgetown University, and Daryl Press, associate professor at Dartmouth College, argue that “the risk of a nuclear war with North Korea is far from remote”. While the chances are that Mr Kim is bluffing, they say, a conventional war could quickly turn nuclear since the young and frightened leader might see no other hope of staying in power but escalation.
在最新一期《外交》杂志(Foreign Affairs)上，乔治城大学(Georgetown University)副教授基尔•利伯(Keir Lieber)和达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth College)副教授达里尔•普雷斯(Daryl Press)主张，“与朝鲜爆发核战的可能性绝非微乎其微”。他们表示，虽然金正恩确有可能在虚张声势，但如果这位惴惴不安的年轻领导人认为只有让战争升级才能保住自己的权力，那么战事可能很快就会从常规战争演变为核战争。Several months ago Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University, a leading scholar on North Korea, predicted that Mr Kim would act pretty much as he has done. He would pile provocative act upon provocative act – possibly to the point of causing loss of life in South Korea – until he won some kind of concession.
几个月前，研究朝鲜问题的知名学者、韩国国民大学(Kookmin University)的安德烈•兰科夫(Andrei Lankov)曾预言，金正恩未来采取的行动会与以往颇为相似。他会推出一个又一个挑衅行动（甚至可能给韩国造成人员生命损失），直到对手作出某种让步为止。Mr Lankov’s prediction, chillingly accurate so far, is doubly worrying. First, it suggests Mr Kim could go so far as to provoke Seoul militarily, say with an action like the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan naval vessel, which cost 46 South Korean lives. Seoul did not respond that time, but if something similar happened again, Ms Park would be almost obliged to take retaliatory action. The challenge would be to act proportionately in a way that did not quickly escalate the crisis. Second, and nearly as worrying, Mr Kim has given little indication that he can be bought off. In the past Pyongyang has played its role of “extortionary state” to perfection, says Mr Lankov. It has behaved badly until it has got something – money, food aid, oil or a seat at the negotiating table. This time, though, Mr Kim appears to have rejected any such overtures before they are made. He has declared North Korea’s nuclear status non-negotiable. With a nuclear climbdown explicitly excluded, it will be very hard for the west to make any concessions.
兰科夫的预言（迄今为止可谓惊人的准确）令人倍感担忧。首先，这一预言暗示金正恩可能会走到对韩国展开军事挑衅的地步，比如说采取类似于2010年击沉韩国海军“天安舰”(Cheonan)的行动。在天安舰事件中，韩国方面有46人丧生。当时，首尔方面没有予以反击，但如果类似的事件再次发生，朴槿惠极有可能被迫采取报复行动。这里面困难的地方在于，要把握好行动的分寸、以免危机迅速升级。第二点几乎同样令人担忧，那就是金正恩几乎没显露出任何他能被买通的迹象。兰科夫表示，过去，朝鲜把“勒索国家”的角色演绎到了极致。它会不断展开挑衅，直到得到某种利益——金钱、粮食援助、石油或谈判桌上的席位——为止。而这一次，金正恩似乎抢在有关各方作出任何友好表示之前就拒绝了此类示好。他已申明朝鲜的核地位不容谈判。朝鲜如此公开地排除在核问题上让步的可能，令西方很难作出任何妥协。If Washington is rattled by Mr Kim’s poker face, so is Beijing. Xi Jinping, China’s president, in an obvious reference to North Korea, said “no country in Asia should be able to throw a region, and even the whole world, into chaos for selfish gain”. Some Chinese scholars say the North Korean leader’s actions, though ostensibly directed towards the US, may actually be aimed at China. According to this theory, Mr Kim wants to show he cannot be pushed around. North Korea is not a tame satellite that can be prodded into Chinese-style economic reform or exploited for its natural resources.
如果说金正恩的“扑克脸”令华盛顿方面感到紧张，那么北京方面的心情也同样如此。中国国家主席习近平表示：“不能为一己之私把一个地区乃至世界搞乱。”他的这番话明显是在指朝鲜。一些中国学者表示，尽管朝鲜领导人的举动表面上是针对美国，但实际上却可能是针对中国。按照这种说法，金正恩是想以此向世人展示：他不会受人摆布；朝鲜也不是驯服的跟班，不会被迫推行中国式的经济改革，不会任人掠夺它的自然资源。Throughout this high-stakes contest, Washington has had to play a very delicate game. It has needed to prove to its allies in the region, mainly South Korea and Japan, that it has their back. On the other hand, its forceful presence – particularly the dispatch of nuclear-capable bombers to the peninsula – may be the reason Mr Kim has continued to pile his chips so high.
对美国来说，这场豪赌是一个高难度的牌局。一方面，它需要向该地区盟友——主要是韩国和日本——证明，美国是它们的坚强后盾。另一方面，它的强势存在——特别是向朝鲜半岛派遣可携带核弹的轰炸机——可能是金正恩不断加码到今天这种地步的原因。Now, the aim must be to ratchet down the tension. Washington has already shown signs of doing just that. Last weekend it postponed an intercontinental ballistic missile test for fear of provoking Pyongyang.
如今，首要目标是缓和紧张气氛。华盛顿方面已展现出此类动向。上周末，美国为避免激怒朝鲜，推迟了洲际弹道导弹试射。Of course, Mr Kim may not respond. He may test another missile or even a fourth nuclear bomb. But if a confrontation can be avoided this time, the imperative will be – after a suitable interval – to talk to Pyongyang. At some stage someone will need to sit down with the North Koreans if only to try to glean something about who on earth the world is dealing with. Playing nuclear poker with an unknown adversary is simply too dangerous.
当然，金正恩对此可能不会有什么回应。他可能会试射另一枚导弹，甚至会进行第四次核试验。不过，如果这次能避免冲突，那么当务之急是在一段合适的时间之后与平壤方面展开对话。在某个阶段，总归是要有人坐下来与朝鲜好好谈谈的，即便只是为了搜集一下情报、了解一下世界究竟在与什么样的人打交道。与不了解的对手玩“核扑克”实在太危险了。
