Facebook上市为何引发投资者狂热？

Cognitive dissonance describes the ability of the human brain to hold contradictory beliefs simultaneously. A version of it seems to run through investing public at the moment. At once, financial assets are reviled while there is a frenzy to get in on the Facebook (ticker: FB) initial public offering. How can that be reconciled?

“认知失调”指的是人类大脑同时接受彼此矛盾的观点的情形，当前的投资者似乎正在经历着某种形式的认知失调。在同一时期内，投资者一边在对金融资产大加指责，而一边却又表现出对参与Facebook首次公开募股(IPO)的狂热。这两种态度如何能够同时存在？

The easiest way is to refute the article of faith held by efficient-market theorists -- that investors are rational calculators of all relevant information and set prices accordingly, at all time and at all places. As years pass, I see less and less evidence of rationality among humans (perhaps inspired by the presence of a teenager in our household.) And if anything, Washington seems to act like the ultimate high school, with cliques standing off from each other while a fiscal disaster looms.

相关报道最容易的办法就是抛弃“有效市场”理论家的观点，即无论何时何地，投资者都会对所有相关信息进行理性分析，并据此定价。据我多年的经验，能够证明人类拥有理性的证据越来越少（也许是因为我家有个十几岁的孩子）。比如说吧，美国政府的行为就像是高中生，在财政灾难逼近时，仍然结成小派系互相争执不下。

The revulsion expressed by the investing public has been apparent and has been discussed previously here ('When Will Main Street Return to Wall Street? Don't Hold Your Breath' and 'Fed's Repression Meets Investors' Revulsion'.) Investors continue to yank money from equity mutual funds while stampeding into bond funds with yields paying a pittance.

投资者表达出的反感已经显而易见，他们继续撤出对股票共同基金的投资，同时一窝蜂地涌入收益可怜的债券基金市场。

Based on fund flows, investors want safety (or the illusion of same, given bond funds can lose value readily) along with income. It would appear they want no part of the risk of stocks, which they've seen crater twice in the last 10 years, first in the dot-com debacle in 2000-01 and then in the near-meltdown in 2008-09 from the collapse of the mortgage and housing market.

从资金流向来看，投资者想要在获得收入的同时保证资产安全（或者只是怀着这种幻想，因为债券基金很可能迅速贬值）。显然，他们不想承担股票的风险。在过去10年里，他们见证了两次股市崩盘，第一次是在2000年至2001年，互联网公司泡沫破裂的时候，第二次是在2008年到09年，抵押债券和房地产市场崩溃导致股市几乎瘫痪。

But there is a clamor for the initial public offering of shares of Facebook the likes of which hasn't been seen since the dot-com hysteria of the end of the last century. The offering has been boosted some 14% in terms of its anticipated price, based on the mid-point of the current anticipated price range of $34-$38 a share, up from $28-$35 previously. In addition, the size of the offering has been expanded 25%, to 421 million shares, making for a $15 billion offering at the mid-point of the anticipated pricing range.

但是Facebook的IPO还是引发了轰动。自从上个世纪末期互联网公司引发狂热之后，类似的情况还是头一次出现。从目前每股34至38美元的预期估值的中间值来看，Facebook的预期每股发行价格已经上升了约14%，此前的定价区间为28至35美元。此外，此次的股票发行规模也扩大了25%，达到了共4.21亿股股票，以预期定价区间的中间值计算，此次IPO的规模将达到150亿美元。

Even with the expanded offering size, it's unlikely the individual investors clamoring for shares will get the allotment they desire. That's even with the effort to democratize the IPO, adding online broker E*Trade Financial (ticker: ETFC) to the underwriting group led by Wall Street blue bloods Morgan Stanley (MS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

尽管Facebook扩大了发行规模，而且为了将IPO大众化而将网上经纪商E*Trade Financial也加入了承销团队，那些热切地想要买入Facebook股票的投资者也不太可能买到他们想要的股票数量。除E*Trade Financial之外，此次IPO的承销团队的主要成员包括华尔街巨头摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

According to various reports, there is a significant contrast between individual investors and users of Facebook for its IPO and a more measured response of institutional pros. As Barron's Andrew Bary wrote, Facebook shares were projected to fetch 70 times earnings and 18 times revenues -- before the anticipated price range was increased. By contrast, Google (GOOG) trades at 15 times anticipated 2012 earnings while Apple (AAPL) trades at a below-market 12 times earnings.

多篇报道说，散户投资者、Facebook用户对这次IPO的看法同机构投资者之间有着较大的反差，后者的反应更为克制。正如《巴伦周刊》的Andrew Bary所写，在预期发行价区间没有上调之前，Facebook的预期市值就将达到利润的70倍和收入的18倍。相比之下，谷歌相对于2012年预期利润的市盈率为15倍，而苹果的市盈率只有12倍，低于市场平均水平。

Clearly, rational investors aren't driving the frenzy for Facebook. But the similarity to the hysteria that accompanies a lottery drawing as the jackpot builds is palpable. 'You gotta be in it to win it' goes the pitch, and folks drive across state lines to queue up to buy chances that are the longest of long shots.

显然，并不是理性投资者掀起了人们对Facebook的狂热。但可以感觉到，这与累积赌注不断上升时人们买彩票的那种病态兴奋何其相似。广告语说得好：不试怎么能中呢？于是大家开着汽车长途奔波去排队购买小得不能再小的中奖概率。

It would appear the same lottery-playing attitude has returned for the Facebook IPO, at least among frenzied individual investors clamoring to get in on the deal without regard to the price, valuation or even knowing what that means. It's also unlikely that these Facebook fans are aware or care that their demand for more shares was being accommodated by insiders looking to cash out during the frenzy.

看来，至少对于那些坚持要参与Facebook的IPO而不顾价格、估值，甚至不知这些概念什么意思的狂热散户投资者来说，买彩票的那种劲头又出现在了这宗IPO案之中。这些Facebook迷也不太可能知道或在意，满足他们对更多股票需求的，其实是等着利用这股狂热劲套现的内部人。

Nor is it likely that it matters that shares of the companies they also like -- such as Apple and Google -- are off 15% and 6%, respectively, from their highs even though they have hugely more attractive valuations. Or that a once-hot IPO, such as Groupon (GRPN), can drop by more than half from its peak once it cools off.

还有一种情况也是不太可能引起这些人重视的：他们同样喜欢的苹果和谷歌，尽管估值比Facebook诱人得多，股价却已分别从高点回落15%和6%。还有，曾经红极一时的新股在冷却下来时可能会从峰值下跌一半以上，Groupon就是一个例子。

It's one thing to throw a few bucks into office pool to play Mega-Millions. But there are anecdotes of parents seeking to put their kids college funds into the Facebook IPO. You've got to wonder how many of those desperate for a piece of Facebook see it as a way to pay down their student loans.

扔几块钱到赌池里玩一把“超级百万”(Mega-Millions)是完全不同的另一回事。不过，有传闻说有些父母打算把孩子上大学的基金投入到Facebook的IPO当中。你不禁会想，有多少急于投资Facebook的人把这当作是偿还助学贷款的一种方式呢。

For the longer term, it's not clear that the Facebook IPO will change the disaffected attitudes of individual investors. Or even that they will want to get in on other big debut offerings, as did the IPO punters of the dot-com era who always were hoping to score with the 'next Netscape' or 'next Yahoo! ' (YHOO.) Or that Facebook bulls know the history of these once-hot companies.

从更长远来看，不清楚Facebbok的IPO会不会改变散户投资者的不满情绪，甚至也不清楚他们会不会希望再去买另一家大公司的新股。在当年的网络泡沫时代，IPO赌客就是一直在等着投资“下一个网景”或“下一个雅虎”。同样不清楚的是，看多Facebook的人是否知道这些曾经红极一时的公司有着怎样的历史。

For this crowd, it's all about just one thing, scoring Facebook shares, which are almost sure to pop Friday when they begin trading. After that, let's see if they're convinced that long-term investing is the road to wealth. 这一群人所关注的不外乎就是买不买得到Facebook的股票，因为周五开始交易的时候，该股股价几乎肯定是要上涨。在这过后，让我们看看他们是不是相信长线投资才是致富之路。