人人上市令Facebook在中国进退两难

The stock market debut of Chinese social network Renren will have turned heads at Facebook. The sky-high valuation when shares were priced on Wednesday (at more than 70 times 2010 revenues) conveyed a simple message: investors are hungry for growth. And there is no other growth story with the allure of the Chinese internet.

中国社交网站人人(Renren)上市首日的表现应会傲视Facebook。人人股票周三定价时获得的天价估值（超过了2010年收入的70倍），传递出一个简单的信息：投资者渴望增长，而有了中国互联网的吸引力，其他什么都算不上增长故事了。

For Facebook, which has itself never known anything but outsized growth, this is a sobering thought. Its high penetration among internet users in many established markets is starting to make it reliant on populous, less-developed markets for continued expansion – and they don’t come any bigger than China.

对于除了超快增长不知道其他的Facebook，这是个发人深省的念头。Facebook在许多成熟市场的互联网用户中已经有了很高的普及率，为了继续扩张，它开始依赖于人口众多的欠发达国家市场——而中国就是其中最大的一个。

The US company’s service is blocked by China’s Great Firewall. It had already been exploring ways to get a local foothold, and this week’s events have only heightened the urgency. But a move into China also carries great risk. If handled badly it could turn out to be a defining moment for the company – for all the wrong reasons.

Facebook的服务遭到了中国防火长城(GFW)的屏蔽。这家美国公司已经在探索如何才能在中国落地，本周的事件更是加重了其紧迫性。但进军中国也有巨大的风险。若处理不当，可能会让Facebook限于危急时刻——出于种种错误的理由。

At least there is one reliable guidepost to follow: learn from Google’s mistakes.
　　至少有一个可信的路标作为参照：从谷歌(Google)的错误中吸取教训。

This is partly a question of style. As described by author Steven Levy, in his recent book In the Plex, Google arrived in China in the middle of the last decade with its hubris freshly polished. The search company also chose not to ally itself with a local partner with the heft and the connections to provide cover from hostile bureaucrats and politicians. Through its own missteps, the clever manoeuvring of local rival Baidu and the antagonism of the Chinese authorities, it eventually came to be seen by many Chinese as an arrogant and out-of-touch foreigner.

这部分是风格的问题。如史蒂芬?列维(Steven Levy)在最近的新书《走进谷歌》(In the Plex)中所述，五六年前，谷歌带着光可鉴人的傲气来到了中国。这家搜索公司还选择了不与有权有势、能在不友好的官员和政治家面前为其打掩护的当地合作伙伴结盟。由于谷歌自身的失误，本土竞争者百度(Baidu)高明的运作，以及中国有关部门的对抗，在许多中国人的眼中，谷歌最终变成了一个傲慢而又孤陋寡闻的外国佬。

Mark Zuckerberg shows every sign of having learnt from this, as evidenced by the Mandarin lessons the Facebook chief executive has been taking. And reports (so far unconfirmed) have linked his company with both China Mobile and Baidu as allies to smooth Facebook’s entry.

所有迹象都显示，Facebook首席执行官马克?扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)从中吸取了教训——他一直在上普通话课程就是明证。迄今未获证实的报道则把中国移动(China Mobile)和百度都列为Facebook在中国平稳落地的盟友。

Of course, this does not address the most vexing questions: Is it right to bow to Chinese censorship in the first place? And, since it hosts a great deal of personal information, would a successful Chinese Facebook become a handy data warehouse for an oppressive regime?

当然，这并没有解决最棘手的问题：向中国的审查制度低头究竟对不对？存有大量个人信息的Facebook在中国获得成功，会不会成为专制政权方便的信息库？

Facebook must be prepared to take the hits that will inevitably come in the court of public opinion. But the reality, for Chinese internet users, is that none of their online information can be deemed to be out of reach of the authorities.
　　 Facebook必须做好准备，接受在舆论法庭上必然会受到的抨击。但中国互联网用户面临的现实是，他们在网络上的一切信息注定都逃不出政府的掌握。

Also, Facebook has at least never confused its goal of connecting people with a moral mission of the “Don’t be evil” kind: it is an agnostic communications platform. It is true that the core values of “sharing” that it espouses rely on a level of openness that does not exist on the Chinese internet. Any compromise will look like a betrayal of this ideal.

另外，Facebook至少从没有将“沟通互联”的目标与“不作恶”的道德使命混在一起——它是个不可知主义的沟通平台。确实，它所推崇的“分享”的核心价值观，依赖于中国互联网所不具备的开放水平。任何妥协都会看起来像是对这一理念的背叛。

Also, its effective use by activists to help organise the revolt in Egypt has left an inconvenient halo around the company.
　　活动分子有效利用Facebook组织埃及革命，也给这家公司戴上了一个尴尬的光环。

Moving into China too soon after this would invite a public relations disaster.
　　在此之后太快进入中国，将引起一场公关灾难。

Mr Zuckerberg will have to weigh the damage all of this will do to the brand against the long-term risk of being shut out of China. Google ended up with the worst of both worlds. Facebook shows every sign of being ready to take the plunge – putting it alongside many other media and internet companies that believe they can’t afford to stay out.

扎克伯格将不得不权衡这一切对品牌的损害以及被关在中国大门之外的长期风险。谷歌最后在两方面都落得了最糟糕的结果。所有迹象都显示，Facebook已经准备往下跳，站在其他许多相信承受不起不进来的后果的媒体和互联网公司旁边。

That leaves two big questions. One is whether a Chinese Facebook should be walled off from the rest of the global social network. Information leakage is a concern: if you have a friend in China, do you really want Beijing to have access to all your personal information – not to mention your connections with other people in China? Options Facebook has studied include various filters to prevent international content from flowing on to its servers in China, and warnings to alert international users about the risks of connecting with people behind the Great Firewall. But none of this would be as clean and bulletproof as just walling China off completely, at least at the start.

这引出了两大问题。首先，中国的Facebook是否应该与这个全球社交网络的其他部分隔开。信息泄露令人关切——如果你有个朋友在中国，你真的想让中国政府能够获得你所有的个人信息吗？更不用说你与中国其他人的联系了。Facebook研究了许多解决方案，其中一个是采取各种过滤措施，防止国际内容流入在中国的服务器，以及警告国际用户，提醒他们小心与防火长城内用户联系的风险。但这些都没有完全避开中国来得干净彻底——至少是在最开始。

The second big question has to do with governance. Should Facebook hand control to a local partner, as Yahoo has done by taking a back seat to Jack Ma of Alibaba? Or should it actively manage the business itself? But with its brand name on the line and long-term aspirations to be a real force in China, Facebook has little option but to put itself in the driving seat. It will not have escaped its notice that Mr Ma has been agitating to buy back Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba.

第二个大问题与公司治理有关。Facebook是应该像雅虎(Yahoo)退居阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的马云(Jack Ma)之后那样，将控制权交给中国合作伙伴，还是应该积极参与经营管理？但要顾及品牌名声，实现成为在中国的一支真正力量的长远抱负，Facebook几乎别无选择，只能亲自坐上驾驶席。它也不会没有注意到，马云一直在鼓动阿里巴巴回购雅虎持有的股份。

That means Facebook must engage more directly in China than Yahoo, though with the support of a stronger local ally than Google could count on. Finding a workable – and durable – relationship will be a stretch. But as the Renren debut shows, the time is fast approaching when Facebook will have to jump.

这意味着，即使倚为后盾的本土盟友比谷歌的更为强大，Facebook也必须比雅虎更直接地参与中国业务。找到一种可行——而又持久——的关系，将是一件痛苦的事情。但正如人人的首日上市所表明的那样，Facebook必须“一跳”的日子正在迅速逼近。