中国政府面临退出救市难题 China stock rescue suffers exit wounds
As China’s stock markets gyrate, policy makers find themselves facing a Fed-style quandary with Chinese characteristics: how to exit.
在中国股市暴跌之际，中国政策制定者发现，他们处于一个具有中国特色的美联储(Fed)式困境中：如何退出救市。
China’s “National Team” of state institutions leading market rescue efforts since early July is reportedly scaling back support, leading the Shanghai Composite index 1.7 per cent lower on Tuesday. That followed an 8.5 per cent tumble on Monday, the second-biggest drop in its history.
自7月初以来，由政府机构组成的中国“国家队”领导了这场救市行动。如今，有报道称国家队正在减小支持的力度，令上证综指(Shanghai Composite)在周二下跌1.7%。而在此前的周一，该指数曾暴跌8.5%，是其有史以来第二大单日跌幅。
Thus, just as the Federal Reserve seeks to avoid a “taper tantrum” in the bond market as it unwinds quantitative easing, Beijing — whose state-owned banks have provided more than $200bn of support — must calibrate a careful exit.
因此，正如美联储在退出量化宽松的同时努力避免债券市场发生“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)那样，中国政府必须精准地采用一种十分小心的退出方式。目前，中国的国有银行已注入了逾2000亿美元的救市资金。
China’s securities regulator has repeatedly denied local media reports that China Securities Finance Corp, the main conduit for injecting rescue funds into the market, has begun to sell shares it acquired earlier this month. Many investors are not convinced.
中国证监会曾多次否认国内媒体的报道。这些报道称，作为向市场注入救市资金的主要渠道，中国证券金融股份有限公司(CSF，简称证金公司)已开始抛售本月早些时候买入的股票。然而，许多投资者并不相信中国证监会的表态。
“We have a lot of people telling us privately that actually CSF has dumped shares. They just won’t admit it,” said a senior institutional sales executive at a major state-owned brokerage.
一位在一家主要国有券商负责机构销售业务的资深高管表示：“许多人私下告诉我们，证金公司实际上已经在抛盘。他们只是不承认而已。”
Yet even taking the government’s assurances at face value, it is rational for investors to lock in profits in advance of the National Team’s retreat.
然而，就算是将政府的保证当真，投资者在国家队退场前锁定盈利也是合情合理的。
The government effectively established 4,500 as its target level for the Shanghai Composite on July 4, when the biggest state-owned brokerages pledged to establish a Rmb120bn stabilisation fund to buy shares and hold them until the index hit that level.
在7月4日那天，中国政府实际上宣布上证综指的目标点位为4500点。当时，多家大型国有券商曾经承诺要建立1200亿元人民币的平准基金，用以买入股票、并持有至上证综指达到4500点。
The index now stands at 3,655, just 8.4 per cent above its low point on July 9 and 29.4 per cent below the seven-year high touched on June 12.
如今，该指数落在了3655点，比7月9日的最低点仅高出8.4%，比6月12日的7年内最高点低了29.4%。
“Market expectations are that once we reach 4,500, brokerages and the National Team will start selling off. So everyone wants to get out ahead,” said a portfolio manager at a large state-owned brokerage who manages funds for institutional clients.
一位在一家大型国有券商中为机构客户管理资金的资产组合经理表示：“市场预期是，一旦上证综指达到4500点，券商和国家队就会开始抛售。因此，所有人都想在那之前退场。”
“The National Team’s retreat will happen sooner or later. It hardly matters if it starts now or in half a year.”
“国家队的退场是迟早的事。现在退出还是半年内退出几乎没什么关系。”
This problem will sound familiar to officials at the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, who are contending with investors intent on trimming their bond exposures just ahead of official interest rate hikes expected later this year.
对于美联储和英国央行(BoE)的官员来说，这个问题听起来将似曾相识。目前，这两个机构正在与投资者博弈，后者打算在预计今年晚些时候的官方加息之前，减少其手中的债券头寸。
But a key difference is transparency. The US and British central banks disclosed the size and duration of their bond-buying programmes in advance. They have also clearly telegraphed their intentions to raise rates.
然而，这其中一个关键的区别在于透明度。美国和英国央行曾提前披露其购债计划的规模和持续时间。此外，他们还明确传达过加息的意图。
By contrast, the People’s Bank of China has said it has provided loans to CSF — itself a form of quantitative easing, since such loans expand the money supply — but has not said how much. CSF has similarly disclosed neither the size nor how much unallocated funding remains in its estimated Rmb2.2tn war chest.
相比之下，中国央行(PBoC)曾表示向证金公司提供了贷款（由于这种贷款扩大了货币供应，它实际上是一种量化宽松），却未透露贷款规模。与此类似，证金公司既未披露贷款的规模，也未披露在大约2.2万亿元人民币救市基金中，还有多少资金未曾配置。
There is a logic to this approach. To boost sentiment, the National Team would prefer that market participants believe a share-price recovery is primarily market driven, with rescue money playing only a supporting role. Such a belief would be self-fulfilling, allowing state-backed players to quietly exit.
这样的处理方式是有理由的。为提振市场情绪，国家队宁愿让市场参与者相信，股价复苏主要是由市场驱动的，救市资金只起到支持作用。这种认识会产生自我实现的效果，从而令得到政府资金支持的玩家能够悄悄地退场。
Yet there are signs that opportunistic investors are trying to profit from uncertainty over the National Team’s manoeuvrings. The official Securities Times reported on Saturday that “CSF concept stocks” are the latest popular investment theme, with shares chosen based on sundry titbits of information on which stocks CSF favours. That replaces earlier policy-linked investment concepts like state-owned enterprise reform and New Silk Road.
然而，多种迹象表明，投机取巧的投资者正试图从国家队行动的不确定性中获利。周六，据官方《证券时报》(Securities Times)报道，“证金概念股”成为最新的热门投资主题。该主题下股票的选择，是基于有关证金公司偏好何种股票的各种信息。这一概念股，代替了早些时候与政策相关的投资理念，比如国企改革概念股和新丝绸之路概念股。
“Every move by CSF...栠愀猀 become the weathervane for official policy. When the market plummets, investors are searching for the shadow of the ‘National Team’,” Shen Zhengyang, analyst at Northeast Securities in Shanghai, wrote on Tuesday.
周二，上海东北证券(Northeast Securities)分析师沈正阳在报告中写道：“证金公司的每一个动作……都已成为官方政策的风向标。在股市暴跌之际，投资者都在寻找‘国家队’的影子。”
International pressure on China to reduce intervention is also weighing on investor sentiment. Reuters reported last week that the IMF recently expressed concern to Chinese officials about restrictions on investors’ freedom to sell shares, including a ban on stock sales by large shareholders.
国际社会要求中国减少市场干预带来的压力，也影响了投资者的市场情绪。据路透社(Reuters)上周报道，对于中国限制投资者自由抛售股票的行为（包括禁止大股东减持），国际货币基金组织(IMF)最近曾向中国官方表达过关切。
If [foreign investors] find that the Chinese government can change the rules of the game on a whim and forbid them from selling shares for six months, they could be angry and make complaints to the IMF,” said the institutional sales executive.
前述负责机构销售业务的高管表示：“如果（外国投资者）发现中国政府可能会随意改变游戏规则，禁止他们在6个月内抛售股票，他们可能会十分不满，并向IMF投诉。”
That sparked concern that the Chinese authorities will be forced to phase out the sale ban as it seeks the IMF’s official endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve currency.
由于中国正寻求在为人民币申请储备货币地位之际得到IMF的官方认可，IMF的上述表态令人担心，中国当局将被迫逐步取消股票抛售禁令。
