欧洲面临五场危机 Five concurrent crises push Europe into the realm of chaos
Europe is juggling five simultaneous crises, all unforeseen shocks in different stages of development: refugees from Syria, eurozone periphery debt, a global economic downturn, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aftermath, and Volkswagen’s crimes and misdemeanours. [is there such a thing? i can’t find one]
欧洲正疲于应对五场未曾预见、正处于不同阶段的危机：叙利亚难民、欧元区外围国家债务危机、全球经济低迷、俄罗斯吞并克里米亚及其余波、以及大众汽车(Volkswagen)的罪行与过错。
Chaos theory’s favourite metaphor is the wing flap of a butterfly that sets off a tornado in another part of the world. An innocuous crisis trigger in Europe has been Angela Merkel’s principled decision to open up Germany to refugees from Syria. Most Germans greeted her decision with exuberance, but she did not prepare her country, and the rest of Europe, politically and logistically for what was to come. In Berlin and Hamburg the housing situation is so desperate that the authorities are preparing legislation to confiscate empty privately owned apartments and, in Hamburg, commercial properties too. There have been cases where local governments terminated rental contracts of tenants in social housing to give shelter to refugees. When the public sector behaves this way, xenophobia is only nanoseconds away.
混沌理论最钟爱的比喻是，一只蝴蝶扇动一下翅膀，引发一连串反应，最终引发世界另一个地方的一场龙卷风。安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)出于原则决定向叙利亚难民开放德国大门，在无意中引发了一场危机。大多数德国人热烈欢呼她的决定，但是她并未带领自己的国家乃至整个欧洲在政治上和后勤上为后续问题做好准备。柏林和汉堡的住房状况非常严峻，以至于地方当局准备立法没收空置的私有公寓，在汉堡甚至包括商业地产。已经发生了地方政府终止社会福利住房的租房合同、把房子让给难民的多起事例。当公共部门如此行事时，仇外情绪很快就会浮现。
No one in Germany is quicker to notice a shift in the public mood than Horst Seehofer, leader of the CSU, the conservative Bavarian sister party to Ms Merkel’s Christian Democrats. He says Germany will be paying for the consequences of Ms Merkel’s policies for a long time. The chancellor’s once gravity-defying approval ratings have recently come down.
在德国，没人比保守派的巴伐利亚基社盟（Bavarian CSU，与默克尔领导的基民盟(CDU)结盟的政党）的党魁霍斯特泽霍费尔(Horst Seehofer)更早意识到公众情绪的变化。他称，德国将在未来很长时期为默克尔的政策付出代价。德国总理一度貌似不受地心引力的支持率最近已经下滑。
My reading of the situation is that the refugee crisis, perhaps more than any other single event, will end up reducing Germany’s room for manoeuvre. But it is not the only factor. A further constraint is the global economic slowdown. Its impact on the eurozone is not visible now, but that might soon change.
我对当前局面的解读是，难民危机最终将压缩德国的回旋余地，其影响或许超过其他任何单一事件。但它并非唯一因素。全球经济增长放缓构成了进一步的制约。眼下它对欧元区的影响还不明显，但这可能很快就会改变。
As Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, recently argued, there is no way the eurozone will be able to shrug off the global downturn because its post-crisis recovery strategy rests on net exports. The eurozone is headed for a current account surplus of 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product this year. It is generally unwise for large economies such as the eurozone to depend on beggar-thy-neighbour-type policies. Now that the neighbour — the rest of the world — has fallen sick, there is no plan B.
正如智库——欧洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)的西蒙舠尔福德(Simon Tilford)最近所提出的，欧元区不可能摆脱全球经济低迷的影响，因为其后危机时代的复苏战略依赖净出口。今年欧元区的经常账户盈余有望达到国内生产总值(GDP)的3.5%。像欧元区这样的大型经济体依赖于“以邻为壑”型政策通常是不明智的。在邻居——世界其他地区——病倒的情况下，拿不出B计划。
The combination of an economic slowdown and the refugee crisis will transform the German fiscal surplus into a small deficit, which would be fine under normal circumstances. Germany should be running a modest deficit to support the eurozone economy[cd you give a date so we can link to a specific col? cant’ find one on search]. But Germany imposed on itself a constitutional law that enforces budgetary balance over the economic cycle. Once the surpluses are gone, the political and legal room for discretionary policy will have disappeared. To put it more crudely: the Germans have decided to spend the surplus on the refugees, not on Greece.
经济增长放缓与难民危机的组合，将使德国的财政盈余变成小额赤字，这在正常情况下没什么问题。德国应该维持适度赤字以支持欧元区经济。但是，德国给自己强加了一条宪法法律，要求在整个经济周期期间达到预算平衡。一旦财政盈余不复存在，德国采取自由裁量政策行动的政治和法律空间也将消失。说得更直白些，德国人已经决定把财政盈余花在难民（而不是希腊）身上。
