欧洲被忽视的政治风险 Risks to Europe that economists fail to see

Politicians like to behave as if the laws of economics do not exist. We learnt that lesson the hard way in the eurozone crisis, dealing with the consequences of a single currency created without key economic safeguards.

政治家喜欢罔顾经济规律行事。在欧元区危机中，我们付出惨重代价（被迫应对在创建时缺乏关键经济保障的单一货币带来的后果）才吸取了这一教训。

On the other hand, economists and investors have a habit of ignoring the laws of politics. That is equally wrong and could turn out to be particularly risky in Europe over the next couple of years.

另一方面，经济学家与投资者也经常忽视政治规律。这同样也是错误的，在未来几年尤其可能给欧洲带来风险。

There is no pressing economic crisis confronting the continent in 2016, thank goodness.

谢天谢地，2016年的欧洲不会面临紧迫的经济危机。

There will be continued worries about Greece, and maybe Spain given the uncertain result in its recent election. At first glance, however, it is difficult to see anything that will cause the kind of jitters and contagion that we have seen in financial markets in each of the past five years.

对希腊的担忧将继续，也许还有西班牙——考虑到后者近期大选结果带来的变数。然而，大体看来，很难看到有什么事情将引发过去五年每年都出现在金融市场中的那种恐慌情绪以及传染效应。

There are also few events in the political calendar that could disturb markets or the economy, with a key exception being the possible UK referendum on membership of the EU. Mostly, we have to wait until 2017 for the big set-piece events, including general and presidential elections in Germany and France.

政治议程上也几乎没有可能冲击市场或欧元区经济的事件，只有一个重要例外，那就是英国可能将对是否继续留在欧盟进行公投。基本上来说，重头戏要等到2017年，包括德法两国大选。

This outlook has many people in the markets feeling calm about Europe, for once. Some would even say that the “doom-loop”, between Europe’s politics and its economy that so often infected markets during the financial crisis, has finally been broken. We can but hope.

这一前景让很多市场人士这次总算对欧洲松了一口气。有人甚至表示，那种在金融危机期间曾如此频繁地影响市场的欧洲政治与经济之间的“恶性循环”终于被打破了。我们只能希望确实如此。

Growth is not nearly strong enough in the eurozone at the moment and it is unlikely to be a lot faster in the coming year. With consumption and consumer confidence picking up and unemployment continuing to fall, however, the recovery does now have its own momentum.

眼下，欧元区的增长还远不够强劲，而且不太可能在未来一年大幅提速。然而，随着消费及消费者信心的回升以及失业率持续下降，经济复苏自身的惯性如今已经形成。

November’s terrorist attacks in Paris will have delivered a short-term hit to the economy in France and Belgium but I do not know many economists cutting their forecasts for growth in 2016 because of fears of a new terrorist attack — or the migrant crisis.

巴黎11月的恐怖袭击短期而言肯定对法国、比利时的经济造成了冲击，但我未听说有多少经济学家因为担忧发生新的恐怖袭击或者移民危机而调低对2016年欧元区经济增长的预期。

In fact, many economists have argued that the net effect of the influx of migrants will be positive, both in the short term and further off. The additional spending associated with the crisis, especially in Germany, will mean a net stimulus at a time when the overall fiscal stance in Europe is looser than it has been.

事实上，许多经济学家认为，不论从短期还是长远来看，移民涌入的影响都是利大于弊的。移民危机带来的额外支出（尤其是在德国）对于整体财政状况比过去更加宽松的欧洲而言将意味着净刺激。

Looking through an economic lens, the massive influx of people from Syria and elsewhere, many of them highly skilled, also appears to offer a long-term boost to economic potential for a country such as Germany, whose working-age population would otherwise be set to shrink.

从经济视角看，叙利亚及其他地区移民（其中许多都有一技之长）的大规模涌入似乎也对一些国家的经济潜力带来长远的提振，例如劳动年龄人口原本势必将萎缩的德国。

This narrow economic take on the migrant crisis is probably right as far as it goes. The political storms buffeting Europe are unlikely to derail the recovery soon but experience suggests some longer-term reasons to worry.

对移民危机的这种仅从经济角度考虑所得出的观点本身很可能是正确的。冲击欧洲的政治风暴短期内不太可能破坏经济复苏，但过去的经历表明，从中长期来看我们有理由担忧。

One lesson is that something that looks like an overwhelming economic positive can rapidly turn into a negative if the politics go in the other direction.

教训之一是，从经济角度而言异常有益的事件可能迅速变得不利——如果它在政治上的影响朝不利方向发展的话。

That sounds blindingly plain but it was not that obvious in the UK in the 1990s and early 2000s, when net immigration from inside and outside the EU picked up sharply.

如今这听起来再明显不过，但在上世纪90年代以及本世纪头几年的英国并不如此，彼时，来自欧盟内部及外部的净移民数量出现了大幅上升。

For economists and businesses the benefits of this influx of labour were clear, yet its political and social consequences have helped put the UK on a path to potentially leaving the EU. For most in the markets and a big chunk of the business community, that would be a seriously negative outcome.

对经济学家及企业界而言，劳动力大量涌入带来的好处显而易见，但其带来的政治及社会方面的后果却将英国推上了有可能脱离欧盟的道路。对于大多数市场人士以及大部分企业界人士而言，这将是一个非常不利的结果。

A similar dynamic has played out much more quickly in Germany where, since summer, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s popularity has been hit by her brave welcome to hundreds of thousands of migrants.

在德国，类似局势演化的速度要快得多：今夏以来，德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)勇敢欢迎数十万移民的姿态已使其支持率下滑。

So along with the positive fiscal and supply-side consequences of migration, investors may now have to add a rather large negative: that the most effective politician in Europe could be unable to stand for re-election.

因此，除了移民在财政和劳动力供给方面带来的积极影响，投资者如今或许还不得不考虑一个巨大的不利影响：欧洲最有建树的那位政治家可能无法再竞选连任。

We learnt in the eurozone crisis that a single currency area is only as strong as its weakest link. Now we are learning a similar lesson when it comes to Europe’s single border.

从欧元区危机中，我们曾吸取到这样一个教训，即单一货币区整体的稳固程度，不会超过其最薄弱之处的稳固程度。如今，在欧洲的单一边界问题上，我们正在得出类似的教训。

If people feel that their security, economic or personal, is being put at risk by integration, it will become that much harder to achieve the deeper co-operation that security and faster growth will probably require.

如果人们认为一体化使得自己的经济或人身安全处于危险境地，那么，要实现安全与更快速增长所需要的更深层次合作将变得困难得多。

Ask David Cameron, UK prime minister, whose team is terrified that the migrant issue will end up dominating the referendum campaign.

问一问英国首相戴维愠蕓伦(David Cameron)就知道了：他的手下正在担心移民问题最终主导退欧公投造势活动。

How much should we worry about Europe? At the height of the eurozone crisis the answer to that question was clear: the risks of broader contagion were such that policymakers, investors and ordinary humans all had to worry about Europe a lot.

我们应该在多大程度上为欧洲感到担忧？在欧元区危机最危急的时候，答案很明确：当时危机进一步蔓延的风险非常高，政策制定者、投资者和普通民众都必须为欧洲感到非常担忧。

Now that the trouble has shifted from economics to geopolitics and migrants, it is not so obvious why investors should fret.

眼下问题已从经济领域转移至地缘政治与移民领域，投资者为什么应该感到担忧就不是那么明显了。

The short-term economic outlook looks calm but no one should be in any doubt that if these crises are handled badly, they hold long-term risks for Europe’s economy.

短期经济前景看起来令人放心，但任何人都不应有任何质疑的是，如果应对不好这些危机，它们将为欧洲经济带来长远风险。