Netflix将花落谁家 阿里巴巴成为讨论对象

After Netflix’s stock dropped significantly last month, billionaire Mark CuBAn raised his stakes in the company on the conviction that the online video streaming service is a prime takeover target. Regardless of whether he’s right, the more interesting question is who could be the most logical buyer?

上个月，在线视频流媒体服务商Netflix股价暴跌。亿万富翁马克o库班随后增持了该公司股份，原因是他相信前者是一个绝佳的收购对象。无论他是对是错，更有趣的问题在于，谁才是最符合逻辑的买家。

With 50.1 million subscribers at the end of the third quarter, Netflix is an attractive target for a wide range of companies looking to leverage its large and growing subscriber base. The company has also made meaningful inroads into six European countries this year, expanding its global reach and brand name. Its moves to produce original programming like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black has also paid off handsomely.

截至今年第三季度末，Netflix拥有5010万用户。对于很多公司来说，Netflix十分诱人，因为它们都想利用其不断增长的庞大用户群体。今年，该公司还在六个欧洲国家取得了实质性进展，扩大了全球覆盖范围，提升了知名度。同时，Netflix开始制作原创连续剧，比如《纸牌屋》（House of Cards），另一部原创连续剧《女子监狱》（Orange is the New Black）也带来了不俗的回报。

But with a market capitalization of $23 billion and trading at a multiple north of a 100 times earnings per share, the company may be too expensive for most buyers. That narrows down the field of potential acquirers and demands a solid strategic rationale for a takeover.

然而，Netflix的市值已经达到230亿美元，目前股价对应的市盈率超过了100倍。对大多数买家来说，该公司都可能过于昂贵。这缩小了潜在买家的范围，也要求他们在实施收购时拿出有力的战略依据。

Two obvious, and often touted, potential suitors are Amazon AMZN 0.58% and Apple AAPL 1.30% , which have the cash and appetite to acquire a company like Netflix. The problem, however, is that both Amazon and Apple have competing streaming video products that are established in their own right. Buying Netflix might save them money in content acquisition because of the overlap, but it could also cannibalize their existing offerings and possibly interfere with the strategic purpose those offerings serve.

显而易见而且经常挂在人们嘴边的潜在收购者有两家，分别是亚马逊公司（Amazon）和苹果公司（Apple）。它们既有资金又有收购意愿。不过，问题在于这两家公司都有自己亲手打造的流媒体视频产品，而这些产品和Netflix存在竞争关系。考虑到内容上的重叠，收购Netflix可能会节省两家公司用于购买内容的资金，但这同样有可能挤占它们现有产品的空间，扰乱这些产品的战略目标。

While Amazon’s 1.6% share of the streaming market is still small, it boasts a large video library and uses Prime Instant Video as a marketing tool to increase its paid membership for Prime. Along the same lines, Amazon is likely to make acquisitions that expand its Prime membership and keep customers hooked to the program for the long-term, or as in the case of its acquisition of online gaming site Twitch, buy companies that truly complement its offerings instead of doubling up on them.

亚马逊在流媒体市场中的份额为1.6%，依然很小。但该公司拥有庞大的视频库，而且已经把尊享即时视频（Prime Instant Video）作为营销手段来吸引更多的该服务付费用户。按照同样的思路，亚马逊可能借助收购来扩大尊享服务用户群，并让消费者长期使用这项服务；或者，就像收购在线游戏网站Twitch那样，拿下一些切实与自身产品有互补性的公司，而不是让收购造成业务重叠。

Given this, the primary reason to buy Netflix NFLX -0.03% would be to sell Prime to its subscribers. But since the average annual cost of Netflix (about $100) is the same as a yearly Prime membership of $99, and since consumers aren’t likely to pay the fee twice, Amazon would be forced to bundle the two — effectively giving away Prime for free to reach Netflix subscribers. It’s also unclear how many Netflix subscribers already shop at Amazon (or could become shoppers naturally without a merger between the two companies).

考虑到这一点，亚马逊收购Netflix的最主要原因应该是向后者的用户推广尊享即时视频服务。但Netflix的平均年费（约100美元）和尊享用户的年费（99美元）相当，而且消费者不太可能重复付费，如果收购Netflix，亚马逊就可能被迫把这两项服务捆绑在一起，这实际上相当于把尊享服务白送给Netflix用户。同时，还不清楚有多少Netflix用户已经开始在亚马逊网站上购物（或者有可能在双方不合并的情况下自然而然地成为亚马逊用户）。

What all this implies is that there is rationale for some type of marketing partnership between Amazon and Netflix, but not necessarily a merger.

所有这些都表明，亚马逊和Netflix应该在营销方面进行某种形式的合作，但不一定非得合并。

By contrast, iTunes sells its content via downloads. Netflix’s subscription model would be complementary to its service, but with a hefty 65% of the downloads market, it’s hard to see why Apple would risk this revenue stream by offering subscription-based content that it can sell individually instead. Also, it’s true that iTunes’ revenue growth is slowing, but Apple’s strategy of a self-contained universe of i-products has been so successful that it is unlikely to dilute its powerful branded platform by inviting an outsider into the family.

和Netflix不同，iTunes通过下载来出售内容。Netflix的订阅模式可以和iTunes形成互补。但iTunes在下载市场的份额高达65%。很难想象，在可以单独出售各项内容的情况下，苹果公司会提供内容订阅服务，从而让自己的收入面临风险。同时，尽管iTunes的收入增速确实正在放慢，但鉴于用i字头产品构建独立体系的策略一直都非常成功，苹果不太可能因为引进非嫡系产品而淡化自己强大的品牌平台。

In addition, even though Apple has $155 billion in cash and securities on its balance sheet, it tends to use that money for share buybacks and for purchasing small companies primarily for their intellectual property or talent as opposed to sustaining its businesses. The $3 billion Beats acquisition was an exception but that has a lot to do with Apple’s focus on music. This puts Netflix far outside of Apple’s desired scope, at least for now.

此外，尽管持有1550亿美元的现金和证券，苹果公司一般都会把这些资金用于回购股票，或收购小公司，后者的主要目标是其知识产权或人才，而不是延续被收购方的业务。斥资30亿美元收购耳机制造商Beats是个例外，此举在很大程度上都源于苹果对音乐的关注。因此，Netflix离苹果关注的目标群体还很远，至少目前如此。

Another potential acquirer could be Comcast CMCSA 0.51% , soon to be Comcast-Time Warner. The combination of Comcast and Time Warner, upon government approval, will create the biggest cable provider in the U.S. with 30 million subscribers. However, despite its market power, Comcast is now facing a growing challenge of consumers wanting to cut the cable cord. As services like Netflix, Hulu, and now even HBO and Showtime provide consumers with most of the content they want over the Internet, the traditional cable model is breaking down.

另一个潜在买家是康卡斯特（Comcast），该公司很快就会成为康卡斯特-时代华纳（Comcast-Time Warner）的一部分。如获得美国政府的批准，这次合并将缔造美国最大的有线电视公司，其用户将达到3000万。不过，尽管康卡斯特在市场中拥有强大的支配力，但该公司目前也面临着与日俱增的挑战，原因是越来越多的用户不想继续使用有线电视服务。随着Netflix、Hulu，甚至是HBO和Showtime为消费者提供了大多数他们所需的在线内容，传统的有线电视模式正在节节败退。

By acquiring Netflix, Comcast could bundle the company’s video streaming portal with its own broadband access service, which might help it to replace customers that it loses on the cable side. A merger would also help Netflix, which was forced to pay a fee to Comcast to avoid being slowed down over the company’s network.

如果收购Netflix，康卡斯特就可能把前者的视频流媒体门户网站和自己的宽带服务捆绑在一起，此举或许有助于康卡斯特弥补有线电视用户的流失。二者的合并也将有利于Netflix，因为它一直被迫向康卡斯特缴费，以免后者的网络给它带来播放延迟。

Still, there are two wrinkles here. First, President Obama’s recent call on the FCC to enforce net neutrality could prevent companies like Comcast from selectively slowing down Internet traffic and therefore obviate the need for Netflix to pursue a transaction with the cable operator, making the buyer more eager than the seller (although the head of the FCC has pushed back on the idea). In that situation, Comcast might have to pay a very large premium to obtain Netflix.

不过，康卡斯特牵手Netflix仍存在两个障碍。首先，美国总统奥巴马最近要求联邦通信委员会（FCC）加强网络的中立性，这有可能造成康卡斯特这样的公司无法有选择性地降低网速。这样，Netflix就不一定要和康卡斯特合并，从而规避卖家不急买家急的局面（尽管FCC负责人已经把奥巴马的要求顶了回去）。在这种情况下，康卡斯特或许不得不以非常高的溢价收购Netflix。

The other problem would be anti-trust approval. Ironically, the scope of the synergy between these two companies and the combined reach they would have makes this transaction highly improbable, if not impossible. Comcast’s deal with Time Warner has drawn plenty of fire from market watchers with anti-competitive concerns stemming from such a mega-merger, and any further moves by Comcast down this road could be a non-starter for the Department of Justice.

另一个障碍是反垄断审批。具有讽刺意味的是，鉴于Netflix和康卡斯特的协同效应之大以及两公司业务共同覆盖的范围之广，二者合并的可能性已经变得非常之低，甚至毫无希望。康卡斯特和时代华纳的合并已经遭到了市场观察人士的猛烈抨击，原因是他们担心这项超级并购可能产生反竞争效应。如果康卡斯特在并购方面还想有进一步的动作，就可能会遭到美国司法部的否决。

That brings us to the most appropriate suitor for Netflix – Chinese ecommerce behemoth Alibaba BABA -3.01% , which recently went public.

最后，我们找到了最适合收购Netflix的公司——近期刚刚上市的中国电子商务巨无霸阿里巴巴。

Flushed with cash after going public, Alibaba could potentially have up to $50 billion to spend. The company is also looking to grow through acquisitions in the U.S. More importantly, it wants to create a streaming video presence in China to compete with domestic players like YoukuTodou and , and has partnered with Lions Gate Entertainment LGF 0.41% to launch a new service.

上市后的阿里巴巴财力雄厚，可支配资金最多有望达到500亿美元。而且，该公司正打算通过在美国的收购来实现增长。更重要的是，阿里巴巴希望在中国建立自己的流媒体视频业务，以便和优酷土豆以及搜狐等国内视频服务商抗衡。同时，它已经和狮门娱乐（Lions Gate Entertainment）联手，推出一项新业务。

While Lions Gate is a successful movie and television producer and distributor, it has no experience in running an online content portal and is potentially limited in its content relationships unlike a pure-play distributor like Netflix. If Alibaba really wants to crack the streaming video market, it would benefit more from the technological and marketing expertise of the leading player in the space rather than start from scratch with Lions Gate.

虽然狮门娱乐的影视制作发行业务很成功，但是该公司在经营内容门户网站方面毫无经验。和Netflix这样的纯发行商不同，狮门娱乐在内容合作方面的作用可能有限。如果阿里巴巴真的想打进流媒体视频市场，能让它受益更多的应该是利用行业领军企业的技术和营销专长，而不是和狮门娱乐一起从零开始。

It may be that Alibaba’s goal isn’t just to launch a new video service but to make a splash in Hollywood through production. But there too, Netflix could be a solid partner given its aggressive entry into series creation and now into movies as well. Netflix has also said that it will double its spending on original content in 2014, some of which could be channeled into producing exclusive content for China while the rest continues to support the U.S. and other markets. In other words, by acquiring Netflix, Alibaba would gain a powerful brand name, a global streaming footprint (spanning 50 countries), and a plug-and-play operation for the $470 million Chinese online video market.

阿里巴巴的目的也许不仅仅是打造视频业务，它可能还想通过影视制作在好莱坞闯出一些名堂。但在这方面，Netflix也有可能是个可靠的合作伙伴——它已经在连续剧制作领域大展拳脚，而且开始涉足电影。Netflix还表示，2014年该公司在原创内容领域的投资将翻一番，而且其中一些资金可能用于制作专门针对中国市场的内容，其余资金将继续为美国和其他市场提供支持。换句话说，如果收购Netflix，阿里巴巴就会获得一个响亮的品牌，对全球流媒体市场的覆盖（横跨50个国家），以及一项“即插即用”的视频业务，用于开拓价值4.7亿美元的中国在线视频市场。

For Netflix’s part, slowing domestic user growth means the company needs to expand actively into new markets, a point that CFO David Wells stressed during an investor event. While the Chinese market is not an easy one to navigate – challenges range from government restrictions and piracy of content to hesitation from consumers to pay for online video – Alibaba, with its size and local clout, could help Netflix succeed in that environment. And with its growing expenditures on original content and rapid push into international markets likely to cost a lot of money, Netflix could benefit from Alibaba’s balance sheet.

对Netflix来说，国内用户增长放缓意味着它需要积极开拓新市场。该公司的首席财务官戴维o韦尔斯在投资者见面日上已经强调过这一点。虽然在中国发展并非易事——其中存在诸多挑战，包括政府的限制、盗版以及让消费者为网络视频付费等等，但阿里巴巴的业务规模和国内影响力可能有助于Netflix在这样的环境下取得成功。此外，原创内容支出的不断增长和在国际市场的迅猛发展可能会耗费大量资金，这种情况下Netflix还可能从阿里巴巴的殷实家底中受益。

Finally, with Netflix currently trading 20% down from its 52-week high, and the Lions Gate investment not yet complete, now would be a good time for Alibaba to explore talks. Given his long bet on Netflix, Mark Cuban would be happy.

最后，Netflix目前股价比它一年中的最高点低20%，而且狮门娱乐的投资还没有完全到位，现在应该是阿里巴巴进行接触的好机会。考虑到马克o库班对Netflix的长远打算，此举应该会让他开心不已。

Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not own any shares of Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Time Warner or Alibaba.

Sanjay Sanghoee是一位商业评论家。他曾在知名投行拉扎德（Lazard Freres）和德利佳华（Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein）就职，还曾为对冲基金RamiusCapital效力。他拥有哥伦比亚商学院（Columbia Business School）的MBA学位，在Netflix、亚马逊公司、苹果公司、康卡斯特、时代华纳和阿里巴巴都没有持股。