以全球视角关注粮食短缺问题

This week’s declaration of famine in parts of South Sudan shows that while lettuce and courgette shortages in Europe captured media attention, it is important to keep things in perspective. The rest of the world continues to fight lasting food imbalances caused by extreme weather, wars and regime changes, and other geopolitical shocks.

南苏丹部分地区最近宣布遭遇饥荒表明，在欧洲的莴苣和小胡瓜短缺广受媒体关注之际，我们有必要清醒地面对现实。世界其他地区还在继续与极端天气、战争、政权更迭及其他地缘政治冲击造成的持续性食物短缺抗争。

In the 20th century, 70m-80m people died as a result of major famines. Before 1965, 66m people died because of nine famines in the then Soviet Union, India and China, notably in Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward”. But in the latter part of the century, food crises became more concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa; 34 out of 65 famines were in this region.

上世纪，大饥荒导致了7000万至8000万人口死亡。1965年前，约6600万人死于在当时的苏联、印度、中国爆发的9场大饥荒，尤其是在毛泽东发动的“大跃进”期间。但在20世纪后半叶，粮食危机更集中地出现在撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区；全球65次饥荒中有34次发生在这一地区。

However, the scale of individual famines has steadily diminished thanks to better infrastructure, increased international intervention and the use of genetically modified crops.

然而，因为有了更好的基础设施、更多国际干预以及转基因作物的利用，单次饥荒的规模已经大幅减小。

Vulnerability to famine has been virtually eliminated in the rest of the world, with the exception of North Korea. Hunger also continues to take its toll in South Asia while Latin America has the most successful record in the developing world in increasing food security.

除了朝鲜之外，世界其他地区对饥荒的脆弱性几乎已经消失。饥饿仍在南亚造成人口死亡，而拉美在提高粮食安全方面拥有发展中世界最成功的纪录。

Yet problems persist. Some 795m people suffer from chronic undernourishment, including 780m in developing countries. Although there has been improvement, the least progress has been made in Sub-Saharan countries, where more than one-in-four remain undernourished.

然而，问题依然存在。全球约7.95亿人正遭受慢性营养不良，其中7.8亿居于发展中国家。虽然有所改善，但撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲国家取得的进步最少，这些国家超过四分之一的人口仍处于营养不良状态。

Venezuela is still in the grip of a worsening crisis of food shortages, political repression and crippling price rises, teetering on the brink of hyperinflation. Polls show most Venezuelans believe the country is mismanaged as they confront daily shortages of food and medicine, rising crime and triple-digit inflation. Venezuela imports almost everything, paid for with shrinking oil revenues.

委内瑞拉仍深陷一场不断恶化的危机——食物短缺、政治镇压、物价暴涨——即将坠入恶性通胀。民调显示，多数委内瑞拉人认为是这个国家管理不善，导致他们不得不面对日常食物和药品短缺、犯罪率上升和高达三位数的通胀。委内瑞拉几乎一切都需要进口，靠不断萎缩的石油收入支付。

This week a famine was declared in parts of South Sudan, the first to be announced in any part of the world in six years. The government and the UN report that some 100,000 people are facing starvation, with a million more on the brink of famine caused by civil war and economic collapse.

最近，南苏丹部分地区宣布遭遇饥荒，这是6年来全球首个宣布遭遇饥荒的地区。南苏丹政府和联合国报告称，约10万人正面临饥荒，还有100万人处于内战和经济崩溃造成的饥荒的边缘。

Aid agencies, including the UN World Food Programme, and the children’s fund Unicef, said that 4.9m people — more than 40 per cent of South Sudan’s population — urgently need food.

包括联合国世界粮食计划署(UN World Food Programme)和联合国儿童基金会(Unicef)在内的援助机构表示，约490万人（超过南苏丹人口的40%）亟需食物。

To confront global imbalances in the long term, the World Bank says the world needs to produce 50 per cent more food to feed 9bn people by 2050, but climate change could cut crop yields by over 25 per cent. It says land, biodiversity, oceans, forests and other forms of natural capital are being depleted at unprecedented rates.

要从长远角度应对全球失衡，世界银行(World Bank)称，到2050年，全世界需要多生产50%的粮食来养活90亿人口，但气候变化可能使农作物减产25%。世行表示，土地、生物多样性、海洋、森林和其他形式的自然资源正在以前所未有的速度耗尽。