美国严重干旱或引发全球粮食通胀
The worst drought in the US in 25 years has wrought havoc on the country's most important crops, putting the global economy at risk of its third food inflation shock in five years.
美国25年来最严重的干旱对该国主要农作物造成了巨大破坏，全球经济可能因此面临5年来第三次粮食通胀的冲击。The US Department of Agriculture slashed its forecast for the corn crop yesterday by the most since the drought of 1988. It cut the 2012-13 production estimate by 12 per cent and its season-end inventory estimate by a hefty 37 per cent. Richard Feltes, vice-president at broker RJ O'Brien, said the lower crop "ups the risks of reintroducing food inflation as an issue affecting global recovery".
美国农业部(US Department of Agriculture)昨日调降了玉米产量预期，调降幅度为1988年干旱以来最大一次。美国农业部将2012-2013年度的产量预测调降12%，将季末库存预测大幅调降37%。经纪商RJ O'Brien副总裁理查德•菲尔特斯(Richard Feltes)表示，收成下降"加大了粮食通胀再次影响全球复苏的风险。"The US is the world's largest corn exporter and is a major supplier of other food commodities including soyabean and wheat. The USDA monthly estimates are among the most closely monitored barometers of food commodities markets.
美国是全球最大玉米出口国，也是大豆和小麦等其他粮食产品的主要供应国。美国农业部的月度预测是粮食大宗商品市场最受密切关注的指标之一。
The much lower-than-expected crop sizes sent the price of corn and soyabean higher, reviving memories of the price jump in the 2007-08 food crisis and the surge in 2010-11 after Russia banned exports of grains.
远远低于预期的收成情况推动玉米和大豆价格走高，这让人回忆起2007年至2008年粮食危机时粮价大幅上涨，以及2010年至2011年在俄罗斯禁止谷物出口之后粮价飙升的情景。But policymakers believe a food crisis is unlikely because supplies of wheat and rice, the two main commodities for the world's food security, remain relatively plentiful and prices are still below previous highs.
但政策制定者认为，粮食危机不太可能出现，因为关系到全球粮食安全的两种主要农作物——小麦和大米的供应仍相对充足，价格仍低于之前高位。The surge in corn and soyabean prices comes as the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation and the OECD, the rich countries' club, warned in their annual food outlook report that prices are set to remain high for at least another 10 years.
在玉米和大豆价格飙升之际，联合国粮农组织(Food and Agriculture Organisation)和"富国俱乐部"经合组织(OECD)在年度粮食前景报告中警告称，未来至少10年内，粮食价格将继续维持高位。
